Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning!

Welcome to the stability projections for this week.

These mid-term stability forecasts compare the upcoming events in a location with the country’s baseline stability rating to determine how things may be trending. These help you look ahead a little to decide if you need to adjust your risk mitigation (or maybe take advantage of an opportunity that’s arising).

Read more on what these assessments cover here.

As a special treat, I’ve included all the countries that DCDR covers today.

You’ll notice that the explanations differ in length. That’s because the model is still calibrating one of the locations, and it’s prone to share more of an explanation for the analysis as it’s ‘learning’ a country. It’s also prone to being a little more general with its initial assessments but these tighten up over time.

🤔

I’m curious - which format do you prefer? Long explanation or short and sweet? Please hit reply and let me know.

Don’t forget you can take these assessments one stage further and get customized risk forecasts for your organization

Read Saturday’s post for more or email me to set up a call to discuss your need

Increase your decision-making edge with DCDR’s custom reports

On with the updates

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

These assessments compare the existing situation in a country with upcoming events to determine if events are likely to improve, deteriorate, or leave the situation unchanged. Upcoming events fall in the 60-90 day period from the report date.

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Afghanistan is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. **Peace Negotiations or Talks**: The outcome of any future negotiations or peace talks involving the Taliban and other Afghan factions, or international stakeholders, could either stabilize or destabilize the political situation. However, given the current disagreements within the Taliban leadership and the complexity of reaching a consensus, there is a risk of prolonged instability. 2. **Elections or Political Transitions**: If any form of elections or political transitions are scheduled, these could lead to changes in governance that might affect stability. However, the potential for disputes and lack of inclusivity in the process could exacerbate existing tensions. 3. **International Policy Decisions**: Decisions by key international players, such as the lifting or imposition of economic sanctions, changes in foreign aid, or military support, could significantly impact Afghanistan's political landscape. The uncertainty surrounding international support and conflicting interests may contribute to instability. 4. **Security Incidents**: Any major security incidents, such as significant terrorist attacks or military offensives by insurgent groups, could destabilize the political environment. The ongoing threat of violence poses a persistent risk to stability. 5. **Economic Developments**: Economic challenges, such as a financial crisis or a humanitarian disaster, could lead to political unrest and affect stability. The fragile economic situation and potential for crises could exacerbate existing instability. 6. **Human Rights Issues**: International or domestic responses to human rights concerns could influence internal and external political pressures. The potential for human rights violations and international scrutiny may contribute to destabilization

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Algeria is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the potential for the presidential election to exacerbate existing political tensions and trigger unrest, given the country's history of instability and concerns over fair elections

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Argentina is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. National elections or significant changes in political leadership can lead to policy shifts and governance uncertainties, potentially fueling political instability. 2. Investigations and legal proceedings related to past government actions, such as the ongoing surveillance probe, may trigger public unrest and political upheaval, eroding confidence in leadership. 3. Economic challenges, including fluctuations in GDP, government debt, inflation, and unemployment rates, could exacerbate existing instability, especially if they lead to social discontent and unrest. 4. Social and political movements, particularly those related to human rights issues, have the potential to amplify existing tensions and destabilize the political landscape

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Brazil is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. President Bolsonaro's actions undermining trust in the electoral system could fuel political unrest and erode confidence in democratic processes. 2. Political violence and harassment of key figures may escalate, creating instability and undermining the rule of law. 3. Increased polarization could hinder effective governance and exacerbate social divisions, impacting stability. 4. The policies of the new presidency may lead to further political turbulence and uncertainty. 5. Reports on democracy and freedom could highlight challenges, influencing international perception and potentially affecting stability.

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Chile is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. **Constitutional Process**: The initiation of a new constituent process has the potential to create political divisions and uncertainties, impacting stability. The outcome could lead to heightened political tensions and public unrest. 2. **Economic Challenges**: Responses to economic challenges could exacerbate existing political turmoil, affecting public confidence and potentially leading to social unrest if not managed effectively. 3. **Public Reaction**: Given the history of protests, any significant political decisions or events could trigger public demonstrations, impacting stability and potentially leading to disruptions. These upcoming events have the potential to exacerbate existing challenges and contribute to a degradation of Chile's stability

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the historical association of elections with political instability, violence, and unrest in the country, which poses a significant risk to stability

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in France is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: - **Elections**: Depending on the outcomes and public response, elections could lead to shifts in political power and policy direction, potentially impacting stability. - **Economic Reforms**: Bold economic reforms may lead to public unrest or political opposition, affecting stability. - **Social Unrest**: Ongoing or anticipated social movements can significantly affect political stability, especially if they lead to widespread demonstrations or clashes with authorities. - **Regional Inequality**: Growing disparities between regions can fuel discontent and political fragmentation, potentially destabilizing the political landscape.

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in India is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. **India's G20 presidency**: The outcomes of India's G20 presidency could significantly influence its political standing. If the presidency is marred by challenges or ineffective global leadership, it could expose vulnerabilities and impact domestic political stability. 2. **India's role in the Ukraine conflict**: Balancing strategic interests and international pressure in the context of the Ukraine conflict may lead to internal political challenges, potentially affecting stability. 3. **Growing critical view of China**: Escalation in tensions with China or strategic moves could trigger domestic and international political repercussions, impacting stability. 4. **Economic performance and political continuity**: Any economic challenges or political upheavals could lead to instability, especially if not effectively managed. 5. **Civil society and democratic traditions**: Events undermining civil society and democratic support could pose a threat to political stability, necessitating careful management. These upcoming events have the potential to introduce new challenges and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, leading to a degradation in India's political stability

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Indonesia is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. **2024 general elections**: Historical precedent suggests heightened political activity and potential instability during election periods. 2. **Terrorism threat**: Any incidents or increased threat levels could lead to security crackdowns, impacting political landscape. 3. **Organized crime and protective security issues**: Changes in organized crime levels or government response could have political implications. 4. **Economic, social, and environmental challenges**: These issues can lead to public dissatisfaction and trigger political changes or instability. 5. **Regional integration and international relations**: Shifts in relationships or regional dynamics could have domestic political repercussions

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Israel is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. The Prime Minister's controversial plan to change the country's judicial system has already sparked widespread protests, indicating potential for further civil unrest and political instability if the reforms proceed against public opposition. 2. The handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by the new government could lead to increased tensions or clashes, impacting Israel's political stability. 3. Any future elections could exacerbate existing political instability, given Israel's recent history of challenges in forming stable government coalitions. 4. Regional geopolitical dynamics, including changes in alliances and conflicts, could have a ripple effect on Israel's internal political situation, potentially worsening stability

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Kenya is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. **Elections and Political Competition**: Historically, elections in Kenya have led to heightened political tensions and occasional violence, impacting stability. 2. **County Border Disputes**: Unresolved border disputes can exacerbate political tensions and lead to localized instability, especially if they intersect with political and resource competition. 3. **Protests and Political Violence**: Increased frequency or intensity of protests and violence can significantly contribute to political instability. 4. **Corruption Challenges**: Failures to address corruption have the potential to fuel public unrest and political movements, impacting stability. 5. **Government Policies and Development Strategies**: Significant policy changes or shifts in development strategies can spark political debates and potentially destabilizing reactions. These upcoming events have the potential to exacerbate existing challenges and contribute to a degradation of stability in Kenya

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Malaysia is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: The potential challenges to the grand-coalition government's survival, ongoing political evolution, closing space for pluralistic politics, and impact on foreign policy could exacerbate existing political instability

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Mexico is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. **Elections**: Elections often bring political uncertainty and potential insecurity, impacting stability. 2. **Government Reforms**: Public response to reforms in energy, social, and security fields could affect stability. 3. **Security Challenges**: Ongoing issues with organized crime and violence continue to pose significant challenges. 4. **Economic Policy**: Uncertainty around economic policy and investor confidence can influence stability.

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Nigeria is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the potential for heightened political tensions, worsened insecurity, and increased disunity, all of which could exacerbate existing instability in the country

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Poland is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: The upcoming elections and ongoing judicial reforms are likely to exacerbate political tensions and potentially lead to policy uncertainty. The potential for shifts in the political landscape and policy direction could fuel further friction with the EU, impacting foreign relations and the disbursement of crucial funding

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Russia is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. President Vladimir Putin's plans for his future: Any indication of Putin's intentions for the next presidential term or succession plans could lead to power struggles or shifts within the political elite. This uncertainty could create instability and potentially trigger internal power struggles. 2. The battle between hawks and pragmatists in the elite: Tensions between hardliners and more moderate factions within Russia's political and military elite could lead to policy shifts or internal conflict. This infighting could weaken the government's ability to address challenges effectively. 3. Looming government personnel changes: Anticipated changes in key government positions may result in a reconfiguration of power dynamics and influence within the Russian government. This could lead to disruptions in governance and policy direction, impacting stability

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Senegal is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the potential for political unrest and instability stemming from presidential elections, political protests, constitutional changes, and allegations of political witch hunts. These events have the potential to challenge the country's stability and require careful management to avoid escalation

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in South Africa is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. Local Government Elections: Potential shifts in local governance could lead to political tensions and impact national politics, potentially destabilizing the country. 2. Economic Challenges: High unemployment, poverty, and inequality, exacerbated by the COVID-19 impact, could fuel social unrest and threaten political stability. 3. Corruption Investigations: Outcomes of investigations could lead to public outrage and affect trust in the ruling party, potentially leading to instability. 4. Policy Reforms: Implementation of controversial policies may spark political debates and resistance, impacting stability. 5. Land Reform Policies: Uncertainty over land reform policies could lead to tensions and instability if not managed effectively. 6. Power Supply Issues: Further deterioration in power supply could lead to public dissatisfaction and impact political stability

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Sudan is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. The political process to form a transitional civilian government is crucial for stability, and any delays or failures could exacerbate existing tensions and lead to increased instability. 2. The ongoing power struggle between rival generals poses a direct threat to stability, and escalation could lead to broader violence or coup attempts, further destabilizing the country. 3. Failure to implement key institutional and law reforms could fuel public discontent and contribute to heightened instability. 4. Inadequate addressing of grievances within Sudan could lead to increased violence and social fragmentation, undermining stability. These upcoming events have the potential to significantly worsen Sudan's stability, given the critical nature of the issues at hand and the potential for widespread repercussions

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Syria is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. Syrian-led political process: If unsuccessful, could exacerbate tensions and instability. 2. Humanitarian situation: Worsening conditions could lead to further unrest and instability. 3. International relations: Foreign involvement can significantly impact political stability. 4. Anti-ISIS coalition operations: Could affect the balance of power within Syria and the broader region. 5. Economic conditions: Heavy toll of conflict could lead to increased dissatisfaction and civil unrest. 6. Refugee return: Mismanaged return could lead to further tensions

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Ukraine is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. Escalation of military conflict with Russia: Any significant changes in the military situation, such as new offensives or escalations, could directly impact Ukraine's political stability, potentially leading to increased insecurity and strained governance. 2. International diplomatic developments: Given Ukraine's reliance on international support, any negative diplomatic developments, such as ineffective negotiations or lack of support from key allies, could weaken the country's political standing and exacerbate existing challenges. 3. Internal political developments: Major government reforms or changes in leadership could introduce uncertainty and potentially fuel political tensions, impacting the overall stability of the country. 4. Economic changes: Significant economic shifts, such as reduced aid or increased sanctions, could further strain governance and exacerbate existing economic challenges, potentially leading to social unrest. 5. Public sentiment and protests: Large-scale demonstrations or shifts in public opinion could pressure the government and contribute to political instability, especially if not effectively managed. These upcoming events have the potential to significantly impact Ukraine's stability, with the risk of exacerbating existing challenges and creating new sources of instability

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Venezuela is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. High-level diplomatic talks or interventions: Shifts in international pressure could exacerbate internal political dynamics, leading to increased instability. 2. Humanitarian interventions or changes in international aid: Any significant change in the international community's response could further destabilize the political situation, especially if aid is disrupted. 3. Developments related to illicit activities: Actions taken against these groups or changes in their operations could lead to power struggles and increased instability. 4. Domestic protests or significant public demonstrations: Escalating political tensions and confrontations with the government could worsen stability. 5. Policy changes or economic measures: These could either alleviate or exacerbate public discontent and political instability, depending on their effectiveness. 6. International sanctions or changes to sanctions regimes: These can further impact Venezuela's economy and political stability.

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Vietnam is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. **Economic and Trade Developments**: While participation in trade agreements can bring economic benefits, any downturn resulting from these agreements could lead to public dissatisfaction and influence political stability negatively. 2. **Anti-Corruption Efforts**: High-profile arrests and enforcement of anti-corruption measures may disrupt existing power dynamics, potentially leading to internal political tensions. 3. **Human Rights and Labor Reforms**: The implementation of new labor laws and stance on human rights could spark social debates and potentially lead to public unrest, impacting political stability. 4. **International Relations**: Vietnam's foreign policy decisions may lead to diplomatic tensions, influencing internal political dynamics and stability. 5. **Terrorism Threat**: Although the current threat is low, any terrorist activity could significantly impact public confidence and political stability. These upcoming events have the potential to introduce challenges that may erode the current stability of Vietnam

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Yemen is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. The proposed truce extension offers a potential for stability, but failure could escalate conflict. 2. Constructive dialogue could enhance stability, but setbacks may exacerbate tensions. 3. Changes in humanitarian situation could significantly impact political stability. 4. Military shifts directly influence the political landscape

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Zambia is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. Economic challenges and government credibility issues could lead to public dissatisfaction and potential unrest, impacting stability. 2. Democratic backsliding and corruption threats may erode trust in institutions, affecting overall stability and governance

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Zimbabwe is **Degrades**. This conclusion is based on the potential for economic challenges and political tensions surrounding the 2023 general elections to exacerbate existing instability, especially if the electoral process is contested

No countries were assessed as potentially improved for this period.

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Australia is Negligible Effect. This conclusion is based on the absence of specific upcoming events that could directly impact political stability in Australia

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in China is **Negligible Effect**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: The absence of specific upcoming events makes it challenging to predict direct impacts on China's political stability. However, the identified factors suggest ongoing monitoring of economic challenges, global governance approach, and international influence, which may influence future developments

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Egypt is **Negligible Effect**. This conclusion is based on the absence of specific upcoming events and the need for further monitoring of potential future developments.

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Jordan is Negligible Effect. This conclusion is based on the absence of specific upcoming events with direct implications for political stability, although general factors may continue to pose challenges.

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Saudi Arabia is Negligible Effect. This conclusion is based on the absence of specific upcoming events and the need for more detailed and current information to assess their potential impact

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Serbia is Negligible Effect. This conclusion is based on the absence of specific upcoming events and the potential for general factors to influence political stability in a balanced manner

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Singapore is **Negligible Effect**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: Singapore has a strong track record of effectively managing potential destabilizing factors, and its proactive approach to security and governance issues has contributed to its overall stability. While the upcoming events have the potential to spark public discourse and international attention, Singapore's robust governance and crisis management capabilities are likely to mitigate any significant impact on its political stability

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Switzerland is **Negligible Effect**. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: Switzerland has a history of stable political transitions and a well-established democratic process. While national elections can bring about policy shifts, the country's strong institutions and consensus-based governance are likely to mitigate any significant destabilizing effects. Similarly, the ongoing negotiations with the EU are expected to be managed within Switzerland's established framework, minimizing potential disruptions to political stability

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in United Arab Emirates is Negligible Effect. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: While potential leadership changes, economic factors, regional dynamics, internal reforms, and global events could influence stability, there are no specific imminent events to suggest an immediate impact

--End of report--

I hope these help you with your assessments and decision-making but if you’re not seeing something (or somewhere) you need, hit reply and let me know. I love hearing people’s feedback and want to make sure I’m building the best decision-support tools possible.

All my best

~Andrew