Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning — it’s launch week! 🚀

Here's the SITREP for Monday, Jan 29, 2024.

Today's report covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

A quick note is in order before we dive in because this is something different. DCDR is all about speeding up and simplifying the 'busy work' associated with risk management so you can make better decisions faster. And a big part of decision-making is having the right information at the right time.

But just giving you more information isn't the answer: after all, we're swamped with information.

Instead, DCDR provides information that has been collated, cleaned, and contextualized — that's the difference between information and intelligence. And importantly, DCDR delivers quickly because even the most insightful analysis can't help you after the event.

So the aim is not just to separate the signal from the noise: it's to separate the signal from the signal — to highlight what's important and relevant — and get it to you in enough time to take action.

That doesn't mean DCDR has a crystal ball, a stack of electronic tarot cards or that we're in the premonition business. No matter what some firms pretend, no one can see the future.

But what we can do is analyze what's happening, put that into context, and compare it to what's normal. That gives you a sense of how today might differ from yesterday, how things might play out tomorrow and in the near term, and act accordingly.

Building DCDR has been an almost two-decade-long journey, and I am over the moon to finally be able to share these reports with you.

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Jan 25 2024 to Jan 28 2024

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Algeria's request for Security Council meeting, coupled with Mali's peace deal termination, raises regional security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Outbreak of Western Equine Encephalitis Virus, widespread protests against austerity measures, diplomatic clash with Colombia, legislative challenges, and natural disaster

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Investigation into illegal spying, dam failure fine, and indigenous crisis report

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: UN evacuation, election system concerns, international business deal, regional peace prayers

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intense fighting in southern Gaza, Israel's intention to retake Philadelphi Corridor, strained Israel-Egypt relations, US-led Gaza talks

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Persistent farmer protests, increase in antisemitic attacks, cultural vandalism, and defense deals with India

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tension due to international cricket match, political alliance shifts, and ongoing cooperation in international probes

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Widespread protests against gender violence and femicide

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Inaccessibility of Mayan ruin sites due to gang violence and land conflicts, water restrictions affecting numerous neighborhoods, high schoolers taking up arms, flood of US military-grade weapons to drug cartels, and new migrant caravan heading to US from southern Mexico

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Holocaust Remembrance Day, rise in antisemitism conversations, benefits cut for Ukrainians, abortion and contraception criticism, language recognition bill, controversial social media post

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: ICJ ruling on Gaza, international airline route suspension, and violent incident involving Bangladeshi national

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Worsening humanitarian crisis with over 10 million displaced, reports of violence against Christians, and international concern over growing instability

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased attacks on American forces, potential US troop withdrawal, and regional tensions

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Recurring accusations and counter-accusations between Russia and Ukraine, claims of genocide, ongoing conflict in Donbass, and international tensions with NATO and neighboring countries

Baseline stability rating: United States is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United States is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Protests over racial injustice, political tensions, and COVID-19 impact

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple Houthi attacks on international vessels and US airstrikes, Iranian involvement, and international military casualties

No countries were assessed as being more calm for this period.

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable diplomatic talks with US and regional countries, economic cooperation with Pakistan and Bangladesh, controlled market measures

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Successful sports achievement, cultural showcase, regional tensions

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Resumption of beef exports, positive economic discussions, sports event participation, infrastructure development, geopolitical cooperation, and investment support

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased cooperation with China, legal actions against wildlife smuggling, and positive diplomatic gestures with India and Laos

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Arrests related to cash truck heist, public concerns over rising inflation, and international developments

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on short-term stability

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable international relations with minor tensions over coast guard pact, significant foreign investment interest, public health concern over rabies outbreak, and minor disruptions in travel plans

Too optimistic? Too pessimistic? Just right? Please let me know what you think. (There’s a poll below.)

And while you’re at it, tell me which countries to add next.

SITREPs, like today's, are updated three times a week, so you'll see these Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but these are just part of what DCDR offers.

Tomorrow and Thursday, I'll share some of DCDR's premium offerings so you can see the near-term analysis and in-depth reports.

That’s it for today. I’ll be back tomorrow.

~Andrew