Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning.

Welcome to the SITREP for February 12, 2024

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

In case you missed it…

Very soon, DCDR app users will have the opportunity to receive personalized risk reports.

These reports use sensitivity settings submitted by the user to create a regularly updated, tailored risk and opportunity profile for the organization.

With these reports, you’ll know how your risks and opportunities are changing and can act accordingly.

Allowing you to make better decisions, faster.

Just as I promised.

Read the full announcement here

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 08 2024 to Feb 11 2024

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Contributing events that inform this assessment are Political protests, Security force deployment, and Economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Pope's criticism of radical individualism, Messi's no-show controversy, strategic acquisitions, firearms use relaxation, political calls for resignations, international sports cancellations, crypto exchange services rollout, canonization of first female saint, and political stance on Jerusalem

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Accusations of coup involvement against Bolsonaro, political tensions, violence affecting Carnival

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Deadly forest fires, controversial environmental rules, mixed international perceptions, and high-profile criminal case

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing tensions in South China Sea, US-China military activities, and regional trade dynamics

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Reports of foreign mercenaries involved in conflict

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating conflict in Gaza, threats to peace treaty, and increased border security measures

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Data breach affecting half the population, ongoing protests by farmers, controversial citizenship policy change, high-profile deaths, and international condemnation

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Concerns over internal security, international energy negotiations, clashes in Uttarakhand, and regional political dynamics

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Rising political tensions ahead of presidential election, candidate favorability surveys, use of K-pop in campaigning, concerns over election fairness

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Threat of US aid veto, warnings of 'disaster' in Rafah, mental effects of war in US, Hezbollah rocket barrages, AI deployment, 'terror tunnel' discovery

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased regional tensions, mixed international sports outcomes, and ongoing security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over femicide and violence against women, high-profile murder conviction, and potential impact of virtual assets bill on financial landscape

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Threats to Nigerian goalkeeper, helicopter crash involving bank CEO, and cryptocurrency regulation call

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Repression of Falun Gong, prisoner swap with Ukraine, intensifying chemical attacks, security threats, international tensions, controversial statements

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Joint military exercises with India, regional tensions, and warnings of humanitarian catastrophe

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Widespread protests and clashes over election delay, leading to fatalities

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo over currency ban, Russian involvement in regional affairs

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political threats, violence, international relations, and social unrest

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Worsening humanitarian crisis with 700,000 children at risk of malnutrition, UN calls for urgent aid; International appeals to stop war in Sudan

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Hostage crisis, rising unemployment, fatal hiking accident, and security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating attacks by Iran-backed groups on US bases, Israeli airstrikes, and regional tensions

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating rhetoric and threats from Putin, ongoing prisoner exchanges, reports of ammunition shortages, international aid discussions, and increased drone attacks

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating military presence on Guyana border, concerns over potential conflict, international attention on Venezuela's actions

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalation of US strikes on Houthi targets, Houthi threats linked to Gaza conflict, increased attacks on Red Sea shipping, and international involvement in Yemen conflict

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political criticism of judiciary, arrests for land occupation, inflation concerns

No countries were assessed as being more calm for this period.

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: International engagement for Afghan stability, economic ties with regional countries, and ongoing climate crisis concerns

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant events indicating short-term instability

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Minor traffic incident, legal developments, economic stability, positive bilateral relations, cultural events, linguistic debate, fraudulent activity, agricultural initiative, expatriate civic duty, political statement, tourism outlook

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diverse legislative activities and economic developments, occasional political gaffes, environmental concerns, and industrial growth

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct threats from Russia, ongoing economic protests, and diplomatic disputes

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased efforts to strengthen international ties and business collaborations, coupled with isolated public safety incident

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Mediation success in Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap, upcoming high-profile visit, and regional diplomatic discussions

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable security situation despite ongoing challenges

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on stability in Zambia

--End of report--

Have a great week (and just hit reply if you’d like to get personalized reports)

~Andrew

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