Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning.

Welcome to the SITREP for February 19, 2024 and Happy President’s Day to all readers in the USA.

The country list is growing, which is great news but, this means the full list of SITREPS is becoming unwieldy. I’m going to be including a quick activity summary to the top of each SITREP from now on so you can quickly check to see if any of the countries you’re tracking have changed.

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇳 China, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇺🇸 United States, 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇾🇪 Yemen, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

No countries were more stable over this period

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Ahhhh. That’s a little more manageable 😎

Please help: Two ways you can support these SITREPs

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As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 15 2024 to Feb 18 2024

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased terrorist group freedom, absence of women's voices in UN talks, geopolitical tensions, and human rights concerns

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Pope's talks with controversial figure, US seizing Venezuelan jumbo jet, economic concerns, and political shifts

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased dengue epidemic control measures, high-profile international visits, prison security concerns, climate change warnings

Baseline stability rating: Cameroon is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Cameroon is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ongoing trial for village massacre

Baseline stability rating: Canada is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Canada is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Fatal stabbing incidents, student deaths, cost concerns for Air Canada, 'Zombie Fires' alarming rate, strained international ties, hate crimes policy update

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Widespread concern over climate change impact on forest fires, community efforts to combat wildfires, and emergence of conspiracy theories

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions with US and regional neighbors, trade disputes, and international security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating violence, international accusations, and regional tensions

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating tensions over Gaza conflict, construction of walled enclosure, and international involvement in ceasefire negotiations

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Expulsion threat to French journalist, high-level international engagements, controversial state government recommendation

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Expected election win of Prabowo Subianto, protests, economic concerns, and international agreements

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating conflict with Palestine, international pressure, and military actions

Baseline stability rating: Italy is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Italy is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased public debt, fatal construction mishaps, international security partnership, and migrant rescue operations

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Death of Kenyan official abroad, international FGM case, targeted killings, and high-profile state visit plans

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: High-profile lawsuits against US gun-makers, protests by truckers, earthquake in Acapulco, and increased migration from Africa and Venezuela

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Acute food crisis, growing insecurity, currency at record low, high inflation, and international concerns over conflicts and kidnappings

Baseline stability rating: Pakistan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Pakistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Election rigging allegations, political stalemate, international concerns over democracy

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: EU tensions over border policies, political bias accusations, and military investment discussions

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Development of anti-satellite weapon, Navalny's death, Ukraine conflict escalation

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Court ruling on election delay, ECOWAS intervention, public protests for swift elections

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Historic test series loss to New Zealand, rising crime concerns, opposition party's plans to unseat ruling party, international court denial of protection measures, and security challenges

Baseline stability rating: Spain is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Spain is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Seizure of large cocaine shipment, international sports upset, missing person case, political stance on global issues, union action against military shipments

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Investigation into alleged beheadings, humanitarian crisis, and international appeals for peace

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Concerns over climate change impact, rising antisemitism, deficit challenges, and geopolitical tensions

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Frequent airstrikes, regional tensions, and human rights concerns

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Withdrawal from Avdiivka, US aid concerns, Russian gains

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Reimposition of US sanctions, expulsion of UN staff, unclear armed forces activity, migrant boy's death, sanctuary church intervention

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple missile attacks on ships, interception of weapons shipments, and international military involvement raise security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Cholera vaccine shortage, international assistance, irregular contract decision

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Government actions against LGBTQ+ community, high inflation rate, political instability with vacant constituencies, corruption scandal, and alleged assassination plot

No countries were assessed as being more calm for this period.

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic challenges highlighted by black market for foreign currency, but no direct impact on short-term stability

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diverse international engagements and economic measures balanced by isolated health concerns and political tensions

Baseline stability rating: Estonia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Estonia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on Estonia's stability, but potential for indirect influence on regional dynamics

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international security cooperation, social movement in cinema industry, diplomatic stance on Palestine, economic concerns, and condemnation of arms transfers

Baseline stability rating: Ireland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ireland is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Varadkar's international engagement, hate crime investigation, security concerns in Dublin, and political developments in Northern Ireland

Baseline stability rating: Japan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Japan is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic challenges, diplomatic overtures from North Korea, and technological advancements in space exploration

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on Jordan's stability from regional events

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic indicators, positive labor force participation news, and efforts to enhance international cooperation

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diverse international engagements and economic initiatives supporting stability

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on Serbia's stability, but potential for regional tensions

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic measures and budgetary plans, law enforcement actions against scammers, positive developments in aerospace industry

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Positive international relations and business cooperation, with no significant security or stability concerns

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic developments and international business investments, occasional regional geopolitical tensions

--End of report--

Here’s to a great week, and I’ll see you tomorrow with the mid-term assessments.

~Andrew