Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning.

Welcome to the SITREP for February 21, 2024

Happy Wednesday - we just hit 50 countries!

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇦🇺 Australia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇳 China, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇸 United States, 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇾🇪 Yemen, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

🇬🇷 Greece, 🇵🇦 Panama

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇳🇿 New Zealand, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Don’t see your favorite (or most important) country?

Hit ‘reply’ and let me know where to add

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

Countries marked with an * are newly added, so assessments should be considered preliminary.

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 17 2024 to Feb 20 2024

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Taliban's refusal to join UN-sponsored meeting, ongoing rights concerns, natural disaster casualties, and regional diplomatic challenges

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Rising poverty to 20-year high, renewed sovereignty claim over Falkland Islands, and budget surplus after 12 years

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political storm over boat arrivals, tragic death in floodwaters, rising work visa costs, major defense collaboration, naval expansion

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diplomatic crisis with Israel over President's remarks, Climate events surge, Legal fines for deadly incidents

Baseline stability rating: Cameroon is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Cameroon is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ongoing trial for village massacre

Baseline stability rating: Canada is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Canada is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diplomatic tensions with India, missing minor, racial controversy, health concerns, and international drone donation

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Mapuche hunger strike crisis and political prisoners' cause

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions over Taiwan, reconsideration of ties by international companies, and conflicting statements on arms sales affecting regional stability

Baseline stability rating: Colombia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Colombia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased protests, political tensions, and security incidents

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Contributing events that inform this assessment are escalating violence in eastern DRC, international condemnation, and regional military tensions.

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating Israel-Hamas conflict with potential spillover effects, economic impact of Suez Canal revenue decline, and Egypt's stance on Palestinian territories

Baseline stability rating: Estonia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Estonia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: US transfer of funds to Estonia for Ukraine, Russian arrest warrant for Estonian PM, European appeal for Ukraine support, Estonian PM's stance on Russian intimidation, and US aid for Ukraine issues

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Worsening economic outlook, security concerns, controversial legislation, and international condemnations

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international engagement, trade talks, and diplomatic victories juxtaposed with regional tensions and COVID-19 concerns

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Protests over electoral fraud allegations, controversial presidential victory, and concerns over new leadership

Baseline stability rating: Ireland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ireland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing tensions over political issues and international relations, contrasting economic developments, and divisive public discourse on unification

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating conflict with Gaza, international criticism, and potential regional implications

Baseline stability rating: Italy is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Italy is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Concerns over migrant rescues, legal rulings, and international condemnations; Political interference allegations; Major managerial change in Napoli football club

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Carjacking incident in Jordan Valley, international discussions on Mideast, Israeli security control statement, and Gaza conflict impact on tourism

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Earthquake in Acapulco, mass protests against government, security concerns near border

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Currency crisis, corporate exodus, policy risk for businesses, protests against economic hardship

Baseline stability rating: Pakistan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Pakistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Allegations of election rigging, political power struggles, social media disruptions, economic challenges, and security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Heightened tensions with Ukraine, controversial border protests, and international scrutiny of government actions

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating conflict with Ukraine, crackdown on Navalny supporters, international tensions and threats

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political demonstrations, opposition activity, international legal case

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Incidents at Belgrade airport, political stance on anti-Russian sanctions

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over energy security, economic challenges, and potential job losses in key industries

Baseline stability rating: Spain is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Spain is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Seizure of large cocaine shipment, international sports upset, missing person case, political stance on global issues, union action against military shipments

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Alleged beheadings, international appeals, risk of state collapse, hidden war crisis

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Iranian-backed groups firing missiles, ISIS claim of assassination, Israeli military action in Gaza, and Russian invite to Hamas and PIJ

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensified international involvement, conflicting statements on Ukraine's NATO membership, and increased military actions

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased regional tensions with attacks on ships, Houthi involvement, and international trade dynamics

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international involvement, political tensions, and environmental concerns

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating attacks on international ships, US military strikes, and terrorist designation of Houthis

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Irregular contract award, Cholera outbreak, Banking pressure

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Allegations of assassination plot, major shake-up to combat corruption, and investment drive amidst opposition chaos

Baseline stability rating: Greece is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Greece is more calm than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Decrease in protest intensity, successful security operations

Baseline stability rating: Panama is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Panama is more calm than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased security measures after minor protests

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on Algeria's stability

Baseline stability rating: Germany is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Germany is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant events impacting short-term stability

Baseline stability rating: Japan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Japan is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diplomatic efforts with South Korea and US, support for Ukraine, and potential for Japan-Taiwan cooperation

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on Kenya's short-term stability observed

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable corporate environment, focus on fiscal deficit reduction, ongoing legal discussions, and cybersecurity readiness

Baseline stability rating: New Zealand is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in New Zealand is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant events impacting stability

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic incentives for MNCs, regional geopolitical tensions, cultural initiatives, international partnerships

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing aerospace industry and sustainable fuel initiatives balanced by minor economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Sweden is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sweden is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant events impacting short-term stability

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased suicide counseling for Swiss children and adolescents, heightened security concerns, international law enforcement action against cybercrime

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic developments and international engagements

--End of report--

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~Andrew