Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning & Happy Monday!

Welcome to the SITREP for February 25, 2024

I added news headlines to the country assessments, but this is pushing the limits of email. I’ve removed the summaries but this still exceeds the limits of what I can send by email so the summaries are a little short today.

I’ll have a workaround by Wednesday, but I hope you find the headlines useful. Please let me know.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

Current Stability Assessments, dated Feb 23 24

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 22 2024 to Feb 25 2024

Countries assessed as 'more turbulent' over the period

🇦🇫 Afghanistan

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Public executions, earthquake impact, deportations, health warnings, media ban for women

🇦🇷 Argentina

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing economic concerns, cryptocurrency regulation, political tensions over central bank financing, and protests over austerity measures

🇦🇲 Armenia

Baseline stability rating: Armenia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Armenia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalation of conflict with Azerbaijan, strained relations with Russia, and international defense deals

🇧🇮 Burundi

Baseline stability rating: Burundi is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Burundi is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased political tensions, security force clashes, and public unrest

Latest Stories No recent news updates

🇨🇲 Cameroon

Baseline stability rating: Cameroon is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Cameroon is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ongoing trial for village massacre

🇨🇦 Canada

Baseline stability rating: Canada is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Canada is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over public safety, international tensions, economic instability, and social challenges

🇨🇳 China

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: China-US tensions, regional disputes, and economic concerns

🇨🇴 Colombia

Baseline stability rating: Colombia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Colombia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased concerns over safety and security, potential impact on tourism, and economic interests

🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Reports of stretched military mission and concerns over porous borders

🇩🇰 Denmark

Baseline stability rating: Denmark is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Denmark is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Meeting between Danish PM and Ukraine's Zelenskiy, international support for Ukraine, rising antisemitic incidents, and global military tensions

🇪🇨 Ecuador

Baseline stability rating: Ecuador is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ecuador is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Renegotiation with telecom companies, international arms exchange decision, and security concerns over prison control

🇪🇬 Egypt

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensifying conflict in Gaza, influx of Palestinian refugees, high-level diplomatic talks, and potential hostage-prisoner exchange

🇪🇪 Estonia

Baseline stability rating: Estonia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Estonia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Heightened concerns over Russian aggression, increased focus on security measures, and international geopolitical tensions

🇪🇹 Ethiopia

Baseline stability rating: Ethiopia is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ethiopia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing tensions with Somalia over port deal, reports of secret committee ordering killings and arrests

🇫🇷 France

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased security measures, diplomatic tensions, and farmer protests

🇩🇪 Germany

Baseline stability rating: Germany is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Germany is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Commemoration of Hanau shooting, public transport strikes, cannabis legalization, manufacturing downturn, military spending challenges, refugee integration concerns

🇬🇷 Greece

Baseline stability rating: Greece is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Greece is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Anticipated national strike causing economic disruption, heightened military rhetoric, and international engagement in Indo-Pacific region

🇭🇹 Haiti

Baseline stability rating: Haiti is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Haiti is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ramped-up international security force, multiple kidnappings, unhealthy rice exports, and asylum seekers' legal action

🇮🇩 Indonesia

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple earthquakes in the capital, drug ring bust, and digital platform regulation announcement

🇮🇪 Ireland

Baseline stability rating: Ireland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ireland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international scrutiny, financial concerns, and immigration challenges

🇮🇱 Israel

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensified international criticism and ceasefire talks amid ongoing conflict with Gaza and potential threats from other groups

🇯🇴 Jordan

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions due to events in Israel, potential impact of regional developments on Jordan's stability

🇰🇪 Kenya

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: State funeral for marathon world record-holder, Kenya added to global money laundering list, UAE-Kenya economic partnership agreement

🇲🇽 Mexico

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased firearms smuggling, international scrutiny on proposed reforms, air quality alert, ongoing migrant flow, water crisis, and church involvement in combating drug crime

🇳🇬 Nigeria

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Tightening cryptocurrency controls disrupting exchange access, high court judgment on journalist safety, regional concerns over military juntas

🇰🇵 North Korea

Baseline stability rating: North Korea is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in North Korea is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing international concern over Russia-North Korea military cooperation, US deployment of USS Missouri, and shift in North Korea's unification policy causing uncertainty

🇵🇰 Pakistan

Baseline stability rating: Pakistan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Pakistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing tensions with India over water flow, protests against Supreme Court rulings, political instability, and IMF loan negotiations

🇵🇦 Panama

Baseline stability rating: Panama is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Panama is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Pre-trial clampdown on former chief, arrest order for ex-president, and concerns over Russia's 'ghost fleet' bypassing oil sanctions

🇵🇱 Poland

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Approval of morning-after pill, EU fund talks, farmer protests, Ukraine war anniversary

🇷🇺 Russia

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international sanctions, conservative group raid, ongoing conflict with Ukraine, and threats to political opposition in Russia

🇸🇳 Senegal

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political tension over election date, opposition rejection of talks, and protests

🇷🇸 Serbia

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions due to derogatory remarks about Serbian president

🇿🇦 South Africa

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ruling party election rally road crash, Election season kickoff, Digital payment reform, High-profile extradition orders

🇰🇷 South Korea

Baseline stability rating: South Korea is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Korea is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Severe health crisis level due to doctor walkouts, Joint air drills with US, N. Korea's potential vice FM post for S. Korea affairs, Concerns over N. Korea-Russia military cooperation

🇪🇸 Spain

Baseline stability rating: Spain is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Spain is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple fatal apartment fires, significant investment in AI, high-profile murder, birth rate decline, large fines for Booking.com, and agricultural protests

🇸🇩 Sudan

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Wave of abductions, UN report on human rights abuses, potential war crimes, and economic impact of conflict

🇸🇪 Sweden

Baseline stability rating: Sweden is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sweden is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over criminal gang activity, international defense deals, and security incidents

🇨🇭 Switzerland

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Shortage of rabies vaccine, Credit Suisse inquiry, Ukraine peace conference, Solidarity gatherings for Ukraine

🇸🇾 Syria

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Court ruling on UK woman who joined ISIS, military exercises, civilian casualties, regional tensions

🇹🇼 Taiwan

Baseline stability rating: Taiwan is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Taiwan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased US-Taiwan interactions, Chinese pressure, earthquake, TSMC expansion, and military activities near Kinmen

🇹🇭 Thailand

Baseline stability rating: Thailand is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Thailand is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased accidents involving tourists, implementation shortcomings in anti-torture laws, cash requirement for visitors, and regional instability spurring migration concerns

🇹🇷 Turkey

Baseline stability rating: Turkey is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Turkey is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: ISKP attacks, detainment of lawyer, refugee expulsion threat, and detainment of Afghans

🇺🇦 Ukraine

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating military support from the US, NATO, and other allies, growing desperation in the conflict, and ongoing international solidarity rallies

🇺🇸 United States

Baseline stability rating: United States is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United States is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Protests over racial injustice, political tensions, and COVID-19 impact

Latest Stories No recent news updates

🇻🇪 Venezuela

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Legal action against Maduro, collapse of gold mine, concerns over US oil sanctions, criminal migrant issues, and international visits

🇾🇪 Yemen

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensified US and UK airstrikes, Houthi threats of Red Sea attacks, and international concerns over maritime security

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political tensions over election inquiry, opposition turmoil, and security concerns for missing tourist

Please let me know if you find the headlines useful: that’s going to help me get the report format right.

~Andrew