Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning and Happy Friday!

Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, February 9 2024

🎉

Great news! We’re now at 35 countries so over 1/3 of the way to the aim of hitting 100 by the end of Q1.

Have a particular interest? Let me know which countries you’d like to see added first

On with the show

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

If you missed it, Thursday’s post was a PRO research report taking an in-depth look at rare earth minerals and essential elements.

Five takeaways:

1️⃣ REMs and other critical elements are highly concentrated in a few countries.

2️⃣ The vast majority of the production comes from areas with some degree of geopolitical instability, human rights issues or environmental carelessness. (Some overachievers have all three.)

3️⃣ There are large deposits in other places but these are currently trapped by a lack of infrastructure to support extraction or, in the case of the US, legislative entanglement.

4️⃣ Alongside supply chain risks, the non-operational threats to businesses are not dissimilar to those from fast fashion or, going back a bit, blood diamonds. So, even those well-removed from the mine site may well have mining-related threats in their portfolio.

5️⃣ A lot of the biggest issues are problems we know how to solve. So things like ethical extraction, supporting and respecting local communities, and environmental stewardship are all things we can do; it's more a matter of being willing.

Get the whole report - and the special framework for the ethical extraction of minerals I added - here

(And look out for more next week about the PRO reports and other premium benefits)

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 05 2024 to Feb 08 2024Note that this reports includes several countries that were recently added to the database. This means that the model is still 'learning' these countries so assessments may not be as accurate. These countries are amrked with an *

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Closure of border crossings, expulsion of Afghan migrants, surge in violence during Pakistan elections, growing challenges for women journalists

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing controversy over embassy move to Jerusalem, economic reform setbacks, and international criticism

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing dengue outbreak prompting emergency health measures, political tensions with police actions against Bolsonaro allies

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Former President's tragic death, devastating wildfires, international aid response

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international tensions and trade pressures, stock market volatility, and regional geopolitical developments

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating conflict in Eastern DR Congo, threat to city of Goma, and foreign casualties

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensifying Israel-Gaza conflict, high-level diplomatic efforts, potential ground offensive, and economic aid measures

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Controversial tribute to Hamas pogrom victims, international criticism over stance on Ukraine, and high-profile security concerns

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Heightened security concerns in Myanmar, major economic shifts, and international cooperation in energy and defense sectors

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Upcoming presidential election triggering economic concerns, muted stance on China dependence, and generative AI test amid voting fears

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: French warning of potential war, US aid bill challenges, Hamas truce negotiations, ICJ presidency, mixed international reactions, cultural events

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased regional tensions and potential spillover effects from Iraq

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Cult leader charged with murder, fatal hyena attack, smuggling arrests, and fugitive escape

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Deployment of military, controversial migrant 'pushbacks' data, upcoming farmers strike, and conflicting court rulings affecting MPs' security

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: US-Russia clashes over North Korea and Ukraine, reports of Russian missile launches in Ukraine, potential EU sanctions on Russian military officers, and UN calls to end forcible transfer of Ukrainian children

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political unrest over delayed election, international pressure, growing civil unrest, and internet restrictions

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Kosovo's actions, EU lawmakers' concerns, and international football approval

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased racial discrimination probes, high-profile legal cases, and corruption charges

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Tensions with Nigeria over soccer match, opposition party boycott, economic challenges in manufacturing sector, and international trade concerns

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating violence near disputed border, attempted coup, internet blackout, humanitarian crisis, and UN appeals for aid

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing international tensions, economic concerns, and seismic activity raise short-term stability issues

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: US airstrikes, international accusations, regional tensions, attacks on civilians, and growing risk of errors

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalation of Russian attacks, Senate Republicans blocking US aid, International support for Ukraine, Use of mercenaries in conflict

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Potential impact of revived US sanctions on oil industry, territorial disputes with ExxonMobil's exploration, and electoral manipulation preparations

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Appointment of new Prime Minister, multiple attacks on ships, US and UK military strikes, threats from Houthi rebels

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more calm than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Positive public sentiment around sports, law enforcement actions against criminal activities, and international diplomatic engagements

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant changes in stability indicators

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant events impacting short-term stability

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic indicators, healthcare investment, arrest and deportation of murder suspect, mixed performance of stock market

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic indicators and ongoing reform plans by the president

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic deals and military cooperation with international partners, reaffirmation of stance on Israel-Palestine relations, and ongoing regional security discussions

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on UAE stability from regional defense deals and diplomatic statements

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic indicators despite regional trade challenges, push for cashless payments, and ongoing legal proceedings against business figures

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Positive developments in debt restructuring, economic activities, and mining sector offset by exam center suspension and telecom regulatory action

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Government's move to abolish death penalty, economic stabilization measures

--End of report--

That’s it for this week - see you again on Monday for the updated SITREPs plus a few new reporting tools I want to share to help you quickly identify and assess your risks.

🚀

~Andrew

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