Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning and Happy Friday!

Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, Feb 2 2023

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

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Just before we get to the stability ratings, note that the US has sanctioned retaliatory strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria following last week’s deadly attack on a US base in Jordan.

I’m flagging these now because there is a good chance that these will take place over the weekend and may be misconstrued as a further escalation of things in the Middle East.

However, rather than an escalation, announcing strikes in advance suggests Washington is taking a carefully planned, well-choreographed approach to retaliation, allowing the US to respond without further exacerbating things in the region.

Both Washington and Tehran are concerned about the tension in the region, and — strange as it may seem — these strikes might release a little pressure and allow both countries to pull back a little.

TL;DR - US strikes in Iraq or Syria this weekend are not the start of WWIII.

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation.

The report covers events from Jan 29 2024 to Feb 01 2024

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: UNSC action against Israel and ICJ censure

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Court ruling on labor reform, economic challenges, political clashes, canceled events, controversial reforms, and environmental concerns

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Political storm involving Bolsonaro's son, economic concerns, racial shift in census data

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions in South China Sea, conflicting reports on China's actions, and international scrutiny on various issues

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Cobalt mining industry exploitation and church attack

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensifying Gaza border dispute with Israel, calls for ceasefire and humanitarian relief in Gaza, potential impact on Egypt-Israel ties

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Widespread farmer protests with road blockades, government measures to calm unrest, stagnant GDP, and international partnerships

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Participation in Taliban conference, regional tensions, economic developments, and international relations

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased gang violence affecting tourist sites, surge in border crossings, political tensions with US, economic concerns, and security alerts

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic instability, religious extremist attacks, regional influence concerns, migration issues, international business partnerships

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Suspension of poultry imports, political tensions with Germany, territorial ambitions report, population decline, and budget disputes

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Suspension of Jacob Zuma, political tensions, wildfires, economic challenges, and international relations issues

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: ICC's statement on war crimes, attack on peacekeeping mission, and new US sanctions

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Destruction of Covid-19 vaccine doses, public healthcare concerns, euthanasia case, racial discrimination report, and deepening NATO cooperation

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Drone attack killing US troops in Jordan, potential US strikes on Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria, Iranian involvement in attacks, US troop deaths, growing Middle East tensions

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Reports of top Ukraine general possibly being sacked, ongoing conflicts with Russia, EU's approval of $54 billion aid package despite Hungary's opposition, and concerns over ammunition deliveries

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased cooperation with Philippines amid South China Sea tensions, major fraud cases, and concerns over territorial defense capabilities

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Recent events in Yemen indicate a significant escalation of conflict, with multiple attacks on US and British warships, downing of drones and missiles, and growing tensions in the Red Sea region. International involvement and threats of further attacks contribute to a highly volatile situation.

No countries were assessed as being more calm for this period.

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on stability evident in recent events

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable oil production decisions, economic agreements with Pakistan, and sports diplomacy efforts

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Global anti-graft ranking, emergency arbitration, drug trafficking arrests

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic partnerships and investment approvals demonstrate stability

--End of report--

That’s it for this week. See you again on Monday when I’ll be making some refinements to the SITREPS to get you what you need to know, faster.

And don’t forget to give DCDR a try: get hours of your time back for just a couple of dollars a day.

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~Andrew

PS - Let me know what you think. Please take two seconds to answer the poll below. And tell me what countries I should be adding to the list.