Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning and happy Friday.

Welcome to the SITREP for January 16, 2024

We’re up to around 43 countries now and still on track to hit 100 by the end of March - let me know what you’d like to see added.

Reminder: It’s not too late to get yesterday’s PRO report

This deep dive looks at the world’s main ports, shipping bottlenecks, and hotspots so you can identify the locations that your supply chain relies on most.

Plus it includes guidance on how to assess, reinforce and adapt your supply chain to make it more resilient.

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 12 2024 to Feb 15 2024

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Discovery of mass grave, UN warning of migrant return, Taliban commitments, and international diplomatic activity

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Pope's talks with controversial figure, US seizing Venezuelan jumbo jet, economic concerns, and political shifts

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stranded livestock, business conditions, sports controversies, doxxing ban, international relations

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Surge in dengue cases, deepening soccer crisis, COVID-19 cases on the rise, and climate concerns

Baseline stability rating: Cameroon is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Cameroon is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ongoing trial for village massacre

Baseline stability rating: Canada is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Canada is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Trade disputes impacting agri-food sector, epidemic of intimate partner violence, disease control measures, international military equipment acquisition, and security concerns from allies

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Earthquake in Atacama area, potential environmental impact, economic policy uncertainty

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing tensions with US and neighboring countries, market instability, and controversial global initiatives

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased military involvement from regional actors, casualties among foreign troops, and humanitarian crisis in conflict-torn area

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating Israel-Hamas conflict, involvement in ceasefire talks, and refugee crisis impacting stability

Baseline stability rating: Estonia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Estonia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over Russian aggression, NATO readiness, and cultural tensions

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions with Russia, involvement in Middle East conflict, internal political controversies, and international security agreements

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: High-stakes presidential election with controversial winner claim, concerns over election integrity, and potential economic impact

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensifying international pressure for Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon, US warnings against Rafah operation

Baseline stability rating: Italy is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Italy is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Settlement of tax dispute leading to significant loss for Airbnb, violent protests, fines for multinational companies, investigation into fascism promotion, controversial migration deal, and criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza

Baseline stability rating: Japan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Japan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Murder suspected in central Japan, North Korea's missile launches, LGBTQ+ rights activism, economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Funerals for soldiers killed in drone attack, concerns over Gaza ceasefire, criticism of US-Jordan meeting, regional security incidents

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating concerns over fugitive re-arrests, potential security implications, and climate change impact on locust outbreaks

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Budget bill, major drug bust, earthquake, border crossings, Amazon regulations, organized crime activity

Baseline stability rating: Pakistan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Pakistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Formation of coalition government excluding Khan, international scrutiny of election process, border tensions with firing incidents

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over Russia, EU military power, rule of law, and protests

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Heightened tensions with the West, military confrontation warnings, and international sanctions

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Renewed focus on Saudi business dealings, regional conflicts, and oil influence

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Internet suspension, protest ban, fatalities during protests, international pressure

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international pressure and regional dynamics, suspension of Chinese-owned mine, and arms delivery from Russia despite sanctions

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Jobless doctors protest, US-South Africa ties downgrade bill, Israel-Rafah conflict involvement, White farmers' arrest, and economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Spain is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Spain is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Heightened sensitivity to international trade issues, social controversies, and economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating conflict leading to mass displacement, concerns over Russian military operations, and human rights abuses

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased asylum returns, Russian sanctions probe, loss of trust as mediator, defense spending concerns, anti-Semitic incidents surge

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased Israeli strikes, Islamic State attacks, and regional tensions

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased uncertainty in Western military aid, ongoing conflict with Russia, and international diplomatic tensions

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Threats to neighboring country, international disputes, human rights concerns, and political tensions

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased Houthi attacks, international clashes over military actions, and UN warnings of dangerous escalation

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic challenges, theft, and government inquiry into missing vehicles

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing political chaos, criticism of ruling party, currency reform challenges, and security concerns

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is more calm than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: High-level diplomatic visits and positive international relations, joint anti-terrorism drills, and technological collaboration

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ongoing international engagements in energy sector with no immediate impact on stability

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Positive developments in India-UAE relations, economic partnerships, and international collaborations

Baseline stability rating: Ireland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ireland is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic ties with Germany, concerns over Troubles legacy act, international calls for EU-Israel agreement review

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic indicators despite regional market trends, government initiatives for technological advancement, and positive international collaborations

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable trade agreement with UK, dismissal of mis-trial application, isolated fan disturbance, regional trade concerns

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Total Defence Day activities, isolated incidents of public safety concerns, economic developments, and regional conflict-related investigations

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic developments and international business investments, occasional regional geopolitical tensions

--End of report--

Have a GREAT weekend

~Andrew

PS - If you find these useful, I would love it if you could share the SITREPs with someone you think would benefit from this kind of analysis.