Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

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Here are the DCDR country SITREPs for February 14, 2024

Happy Valentine’s Day ❤️

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

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(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 10 2024 to Feb 13 2024

Baseline stability rating: Afghanistan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Afghanistan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased Taliban abuses, healthcare crisis, and international aid cutbacks

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Contributing events that inform this assessment are Political protests, Security force deployment, and Economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Pope's canonization of Argentina's first female saint, President's controversial statements, and crypto adoption amid economic crisis

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Halted Carnival, military coup probe, urgent plea to stop illegal mining

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions with neighboring countries, economic concerns, and international military activities

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased foreign military involvement, protests targeting Western interests, and UN Security Council concerns about escalating violence

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating tensions over potential Israeli invasion of Rafah, threats to peace treaty, and deployment of tanks at the border

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: UN condemnation, controversial citizenship revocation, international tensions, and protest involvement by Greta Thunberg

Baseline stability rating: Indonesia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Indonesia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Upcoming presidential vote with ex-general as frontrunner, protests over alleged poll interference, and international trade dispute

Baseline stability rating: Israel is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Israel is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Contributing events that inform this assessment are ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, hostage rescue operation, international pressure for ceasefire, economic impact of conflict, and political implications of military actions

Baseline stability rating: Jordan is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Jordan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Repeated drone attack funerals, high-level US-Jordan talks amid Israel-Hamas conflict, and electricity deal with Iraq

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Tragic death of marathon world record-holder Kelvin Kiptum, potential impact on national morale and sports community; Reports on Mungiki gang's activities raising security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Malaysia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Malaysia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over Shariah law, political tensions, and former PM's health issues

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased drug-related violence, security concerns, and economic impact of avocado shipment issues

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Tragic helicopter crash involving Nigerian bank CEO, continued concerns over security, and sports-related disappointment

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over NATO alliance, security threats, and political tensions with neighboring countries

Baseline stability rating: Russia is experiencing Weak stability

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Russia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating tensions with NATO and the West, accusations of chemical weapons use, and imposition of sanctions

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing international concern over regional conflict, mixed signals on oil capacity, and deportation order for Saudi dissident

Baseline stability rating: Senegal is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Senegal is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Violent protests, deaths, internet suspension, election crisis

Baseline stability rating: Serbia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Serbia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Protests against Kosovo's decision to abolish the Serbian dinar, concerns over expulsions of anti-war Russians, and potential impact of sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Public safety concerns at events, economic pressures on SMEs, and potential security risks related to international conflicts

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: SANDF clampdown on miners, political promises, international relations concerns, healthcare challenges, and indigenous rights issues

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Military operations, child malnutrition, combat training camps for women, telecoms blackout, large-scale displacement

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over antisemitism, international political tensions, and data security issues

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating attacks on American military bases, Israeli airstrikes, civilian casualties, and regional power dynamics

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating drone attacks, uncertain US aid, and international involvement in conflict

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Terrorist attack, regional tensions, high-profile international events, and technological advancements

Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased military tensions with Guyana, arrests of rights activists, international delegitimization efforts, and unresolved human rights concerns

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating conflict with US-led strikes, attacks on vessels, and impact on peace process

Baseline stability rating: Zimbabwe is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zimbabwe is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic collapse, currency instability, political chaos, criticism of ruling party

No countries were assessed as being more calm for this period.

Baseline stability rating: Australia is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Australia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Successful sports achievement, legislative developments, international partnerships, climate-related concerns, and economic indicators

Baseline stability rating: Chile is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Chile is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Positive international support for wildfire management, technological advancements, and strong economic performance

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diverse range of positive international engagements and economic developments

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased foreign investment interest, operational challenges during Tet, and resolution of stranded tourist situation

Baseline stability rating: Zambia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Zambia is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant events impacting short-term stability

--End of report--

~Andrew