Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning.

Welcome to the SITREP for January 31, 2024.

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

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Don’t forget, tomorrow is DCDR launch day! Registration opens Thursday morning.

A quick editorial note. Starting next week, I’ll be adding an intro snippet to the Wednesday and Friday SITREPs letting you know what’s changed since Monday. That way, it will be a little easier to hone in on what might need your attention.

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Jan 27 2024 to Jan 30 2024

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Arson-caused fire in UNESCO park, controversial fighter jet decision, political reform challenges, high demand for Covid-19 supplies, diplomatic cautionary incident

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Investigation targeting Bolsonaro's son, decline in violent crimes, and calls for reparations over slavery's legacy

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Imprisonment of British man, US-China talks on sensitive issues, Evergrande's liquidation hearing, Trump's tariff considerations

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing concerns over human rights abuses and unstable labor conditions

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intense fighting in southern Gaza, Egypt's role in Gaza ceasefire talks, and regional diplomatic efforts

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Widespread farmer protests causing blockades and tensions in Paris, suspension of funding to UNRWA, and concerns over economic stagnation

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Mixed reactions to Nitish Kumar's political move, international cooperation on investigations, and sports events impacting national sentiment

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Court ruling on police deployment, anti-femicide demonstration, healthcare worker abuse, visa-free entry challenges

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating tensions over US-Mexico border policies, political clashes, and return of bullfighting triggering protests

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Withdrawal of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS, currency exchange challenges, and extremist attacks in Nigeria

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Controversial statements by political leaders, international disputes over historical issues, and flight safety concerns

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Sudden halt in oil production capacity increase, arrests on corruption charges, and military exercises with India amid regional tensions

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Suspension of former president Zuma, wildfires, economic growth forecast cut, political tensions

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Deadly clashes in disputed Abyei region, attacks on peacekeepers, and ICC concerns over war crimes in Sudan

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Threat of UNRWA funding cuts, stagnation in corruption control, vaccine destruction, and climate activism

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple attacks on US troops in the region, discussions of retaliation, and lack of US-Russia dialogue on Syria

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Massive fraud in weapons procurement, threats of war, and international tensions

Baseline stability rating: United States is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United States is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Protests over racial injustice, political tensions, and COVID-19 impact

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing tensions in South China Sea, high-profile international agreements, mixed economic signals, and public activism

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, US troop deaths in Jordan, Iranian involvement, and international military tensions

No countries were assessed as being more calm for this period.

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No direct impact on stability evident from recent events

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable monetary policy amid slowing inflation, mixed stock market performance, social attitudes towards marriage, and ongoing infrastructure expansion plans

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: No significant events directly impacting short-term stability

--End of report--

That’s it for today but I’ll be back with a supply chain assessment tomorrow, plus details on how to register for DCDR.

~Andrew

PS - Let me know what you think. Please take two seconds to answer the poll below.

And tell me what countries I should be adding to the list. Plus, which commodities are important to you? (But not BTC - this isn’t that kind of establishment…)