Archived post from legacy Decis reporting
Good morning.
Welcome to the SITREP for Monday, February 5, 2023
As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.
(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)
ICYMI: How accurate is DCDR?
The DCDR mid-term assessments (country forecasts) are now being scored for accuracy.
These scores are there to help assess the model performance but, more importantly, they’re to give you confidence in the analysis you’re using for decision-making.
So how is the baseline model performing?
Current Stability Assessments, dated February 4, 2024
These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 01 2024 to Feb 04 2024
Countries assessed as 'more turbulent' over the period
Argentina
Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Approval of Milei's controversial economic reform bill amidst protests, potential impact of US nuclear aircraft carrier in South Atlantic, and climate-related challenges triggering unrest
China
Baseline stability rating: China is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing competition with India, economic concerns over Apple's performance, heightened tensions with Japan and the US, and ongoing regional disputes
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Contributing events that inform this assessment are attacks on helicopters, injuries to UN and SANDF troops, and increased rebel activity.
Egypt
Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Heightened tensions and violence in Gaza, potential impact on Egypt's border security, economic reform negotiations with IMF, and regional diplomatic efforts
France
Baseline stability rating: France is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple knife attacks, hostage situation, protests, and international incidents
Kenya
Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Deadly gas explosion causing multiple casualties and property damage, President's criticism of incompetence and corruption
Mexico
Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Allegations of drug money involvement affecting US talks, border security rallies, and gender identity bill proposal
Nigeria
Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased militant activity and regional political tensions
Poland
Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Growing public support for controversial policies, alignment with EU on sanctions against Russia, and regional tensions impacting stability
Singapore
Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased law enforcement actions, closure of regional HQ, high-profile legal cases, and economic shifts
South Africa
Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Cash crisis affecting Air Force, human trafficking bust, regional cholera epidemic warning, high alert after pupil food poisoning
Sudan
Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Reports of starvation deaths, land dispute clashes, and US sanctions on Sudanese companies
Switzerland
Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Economic concerns, military budget shortfall, social issues, and political controversy
Syria
Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensified military actions involving US, Israel, and Iran-linked targets in Syria and Iraq
Ukraine
Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: World Court ruling on Russia-Ukraine genocide case, EU aid package negotiations, Ukraine-Russia military incidents
Yemen
Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating US and UK military strikes against Houthi targets, Iranian warnings, and ongoing regional tensions
Countries assessed as 'more calm' over the period
Vietnam
Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is more calm than usual
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Decreased activity at largest bus station for Tet, positive international engagement, and cultural event showcasing
Countries assessed as 'unchanged' over the period
Algeria
Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diplomatic tension with US over UN ceasefire resolution
Brazil
Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased investment from Volkswagen, proposed tax evasion crackdown, and regional heat wave
India
Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable economic growth and international partnerships, minor regional military concerns, isolated political tensions
Saudi Arabia
Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Military cooperation and defense technology exhibitions
United Arab Emirates
Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment
Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased defense cooperation with South Korea, positive business ties with Pakistan, and successful cross-border CBDC transaction demonstrate stable international relations and economic activities
--End of report--
That’s the SITREP for today.
Starting Wednesday, the mid-week SITREPS will be prefaced with a quick note indicating countries that have changed, to allow users to quickly identify where there’s a development to address.
~Andrew
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