Archived post from legacy Decis reporting
Good morning, and welcome to the last Monday of 2024.
Some weekend headlines and stories that might have slipped by over the last week.
Russia admitted that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25th was hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire. The Azeri President has accepted that this was an accident, but it highlights the danger for airlines operating near conflict zones, even where there is no official airspace warning in place. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]
Despite threats from incoming US president Trump, Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino has rejected proposed talks concerning the future of the Panama Canal. “…there’s nothing to talk about….The canal is Panamanian and belongs to Panamanians. There’s no possibility of opening any kind of conversation around this reality”. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]
America’s Republican Party is embroiled in an internal fight over skilled worker visas (H1B) with respect to immigration and entrepreneurship. The program allows skilled workers to enter the US outside of normal quotas and channels and is cited as a big reason for the success of many major American firms, particularly in the tech sector. However, this apparent exemption is anathema to immigration hard-liners like Steve Bannon, who wants all immigration stopped. While a seemingly obscure issue, the H1B visa arguments highlight that for some in the GOP, the immigration fight isn’t just about closing the border and stopping illegal immigration but clamping down on all immigration to the US, including currently legal routes. This would significantly hinder US business and tourism, making this a much more larger fight than it appears. [More in Axios]
Some grim statistics from some end-of-the-year reporting.
UNICEF published its ‘State of the Child’ report, which estimated that one in six children — about 470 million — live in a conflict zone. This statistic illustrates how many modern conflicts ignore the traditional distinction of combatant / non-combatant and how force is applied indiscriminately in civilian areas by both state actors and militias. [Full UNICEF report]
An Oxfam report from October estimated that 21,000 die daily due to conflict-induced hunger, either due to lack of access to food due to conflict or deliberate withholding of food in conflict areas. [Oxfam report summary].
ALCED assessed Gaza as the world’s most dangerous conflict for civilians while Ukraine was the deadliest overall. [ACLED]
Comment.
As of today, there are no significant indicators that there is a resolution to any of these conflicts in the near term. Incoming President Trump is expected to push Ukraine and Russia towards peace, but any peace accord will take months to negotiate and come into effect. Meanwhile, his threats that there will be “hell to pay” if Hamas does not agree to a ceasefire seem unmoored from the reality that there is little more that can be done to make things worse in Gaza.
Former US President and Nobel Peace Prize winner Jimmy Carter died at 100. [Obituary in the Washington Post]
Unsure of how these events affect your businesses or struggling to keep your risk assessment up to date?
Dynamic Risk Tracking in the Decis Platform
Make the risk assessment update you, not the other way around
As risk managers, we spend weeks, maybe months, each year updating our risk assessment. It’s a key part of the job.
But the problem is 1) these become snapshots in time, unresponsive to events, and 2) the risk assessment takes up so much time and energy that the real work — the mitigation and risk management — is often rushed and under-resourced.
This has been a pet peeve of mine for a very long time so I am very pleased to announce that dynamic risk tracking is now part of the Decis platform.
Decis - Dynamic Risk Profiles Teaser Dec 2024
The original demo tour
Best of all, it’s very simple to set up.
1️⃣ You set up your exposure profile (i.e. countries that affect your operations), impact metrics and limits.
2️⃣ Decis dynamically recalculates your risk as the country stability ratings (or your impact metrics) change.
3️⃣ The dynamic risk profile immediately lets you see your overall exposure and when anything is hitting your pre-defined limits
The result: better, faster risk-based decisions.
Hit ‘reply’ and let me know if you want to set this up for your organization. Anyone signing up now can get full access to the Decis platform for free until January 10th.
Key Metrics
WTI is $70.38 (Down)
Low |--- < ----------------| High
Wheat is $185.735 (Down)
Low |------ < -------------| High
EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)
Low | < -------------------| High
YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)
Low |---------- < > ---------| High
Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days
Metrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 30 2024 08:05 UTC
Global Stability Ratings
Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.
🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable
🇦🇱 Albania is Weak
🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak
🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable
🇦🇴 Angola is Weak
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable
🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak
🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak
🇦🇺 Australia is Stable
🇦🇹 Austria is Stable
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak
🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak
🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak
🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable
🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable
🇧🇪 Belgium is Weak
🇧🇿 Belize is Weak
🇧🇯 Benin is Weak
🇧🇹 Bhutan is Weak
🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak
🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak
🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable
🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak
🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable
🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak
🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak
🇨🇲 Cameroon is Weak
🇨🇦 Canada is Weak
🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable
🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable
🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable
🇨🇱 Chile is Stable
🇨🇳 China is Stable
🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak
🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak
🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable
🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable
🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak
🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable
🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable
🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable
🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak
🇩🇲 Dominica is Weak
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Stable
🇹🇱 East Timor is Weak
🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak
🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak
🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable
🇪🇷 Eritrea is Weak
🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable
🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak
🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Unstable
🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Weak
🇫🇯 Fiji is Weak
🇫🇮 Finland is Stable
🇫🇷 France is Weak
🇬🇦 Gabon is Unstable
🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak
🇩🇪 Germany is Weak
🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable
🇬🇷 Greece is Stable
🇬🇩 Grenada is Weak
🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak
🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable
🇬🇾 Guyana is Weak
🇭🇹 Haiti is Critically Unstable
🇭🇳 Honduras is Unstable
🇭🇺 Hungary is Stable
🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable
🇮🇳 India is Weak
🇮🇩 Indonesia is Weak
🇮🇷 Iran is Weak
🇮🇶 Iraq is Weak
🇮🇪 Ireland is Stable
🇮🇱 Israel is Weak
🇮🇹 Italy is Weak
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast is Weak
🇯🇲 Jamaica is Weak
🇯🇵 Japan is Weak
🇯🇴 Jordan is Weak
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan is Stable
🇰🇪 Kenya is Weak
🇰🇮 Kiribati is Weak
🇰🇼 Kuwait is Stable
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan is Weak
🇱🇦 Laos is Weak
🇱🇻 Latvia is Stable
🇱🇧 Lebanon is Unstable
🇱🇸 Lesotho is Weak
🇱🇷 Liberia is Weak
🇱🇾 Libya is Unstable
🇱🇮 Liechtenstein is Stable
🇱🇹 Lithuania is Stable
🇱🇺 Luxembourg is Highly Stable
🇲🇰 Macedonia is Weak
🇲🇬 Madagascar is Weak
🇲🇼 Malawi is Weak
🇲🇾 Malaysia is Stable
🇲🇻 Maldives is Weak
🇲🇱 Mali is Unstable
🇲🇹 Malta is Stable
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands is Weak
🇲🇷 Mauritania is Weak
🇲🇺 Mauritius is Stable
🇲🇽 Mexico is Weak
🇲🇩 Moldova is Weak
🇲🇨 Monaco is Stable
🇲🇳 Mongolia is Stable
🇲🇪 Montenegro is Weak
🇲🇦 Morocco is Weak
🇲🇿 Mozambique is Weak
🇲🇲 Myanmar is Unstable
🇳🇦 Namibia is Stable
🇳🇷 Nauru is Weak
🇳🇵 Nepal is Weak
🇳🇱 Netherlands is Weak
🇳🇿 New Zealand is Weak
🇳🇮 Nicaragua is Weak
🇳🇪 Niger is Unstable
🇳🇬 Nigeria is Unstable
🇰🇵 North Korea is Critically Unstable
🇳🇴 Norway is Stable
🇴🇲 Oman is Weak
🇵🇰 Pakistan is Weak
🇵🇼 Palau is Stable
🇵🇦 Panama is Weak
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea is Weak
🇵🇾 Paraguay is Weak
🇵🇪 Peru is Weak
🇵🇭 Philippines is Weak
🇵🇱 Poland is Stable
🇵🇹 Portugal is Stable
🇶🇦 Qatar is Stable
🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo is Weak
🇷🇴 Romania is Weak
🇷🇺 Russia is Weak
🇷🇼 Rwanda is Stable
🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable
🇱🇨 Saint Lucia is Weak
🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable
🇼🇸 Samoa is Stable
🇸🇲 San Marino is Stable
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe is Stable
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is Weak
🇸🇳 Senegal is Stable
🇷🇸 Serbia is Weak
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone is Weak
🇸🇬 Singapore is Stable
🇸🇰 Slovakia is Stable
🇸🇮 Slovenia is Stable
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands is Weak
🇸🇴 Somalia is Unstable
🇿🇦 South Africa is Weak
🇰🇷 South Korea is Weak
🇸🇸 South Sudan is Critically Unstable
🇪🇸 Spain is Weak
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka is Weak
🇸🇩 Sudan is Critically Unstable
🇸🇷 Suriname is Weak
🇸🇪 Sweden is Stable
🇨🇭 Switzerland is Stable
🇸🇾 Syria is Critically Unstable
🇹🇼 Taiwan is Stable
🇹🇯 Tajikistan is Weak
🇹🇿 Tanzania is Stable
🇹🇭 Thailand is Weak
🇧🇸 The Bahamas is Stable
🇬🇲 The Gambia is Weak
🇹🇬 Togo is Weak
🇹🇴 Tonga is Weak
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago is Weak
🇹🇳 Tunisia is Weak
🇹🇷 Turkey is Weak
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan is Weak
🇹🇻 Tuvalu is Weak
🇺🇬 Uganda is Weak
🇺🇦 Ukraine is Unstable
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates is Stable
🇬🇧 United Kingdom is Stable
🇺🇸 United States Of America is Stable
🇺🇾 Uruguay is Stable
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan is Stable
🇻🇺 Vanuatu is Weak
🇻🇪 Venezuela is Unstable
🇻🇳 Vietnam is Stable
🇪🇭 Western Sahara is Weak
🇾🇪 Yemen is Critically Unstable
🇿🇲 Zambia is Weak
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe is Weak
Don’t forget: start your New year on top of your risks. Sign up for a Decis trial now and get full access for free until January 10th. Hit reply, and I’ll get you signed up, ASAP.
Carpe tomorrow!
