Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning.

It was a monumental weekend in and for the Middle East as the Assad regime fell after 50 years of brutal rule in Syria. After a startlingly fast and relatively bloodless sweep of the country by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels, HTS is now in charge of Damascus and most of Western and central Syria from the Turkish border to Jordan. I was wrong in my assessment on Friday as I anticipated elements of the regime to put up some kind of resistance, but it seems that the majority of the military either surrendered or melted away, allowing the rebels to take Damascus essentially unopposed.

What’s next is a big question: there are legitimate concerns that there could be a rerun of the chaos that unfolded in Libya after the fall of Muammar Qadaffi, or that the more recent softening of HTS will quickly be replaced by a more stringent form of Islam. Islamic State is still active in parts of Syria and Turkey is fighting the Kurdish YPG in the north east so a peaceful, united Syria is a long way away. However, as of Monday morning, the situation appears calm and there are positive overtures from regional and some Western powers toward HTS, all of which are positive signs.

On the the headlines.

The biggest story this weekend was Syria and the remarkable speed with which the Assad regime fell and the ease with which HTS-led rebels were able to take control of Damascus. By Sunday evening Assad and his family were believed to be in Moscow after he had resigned as president and the Prime Minister was in the process of handing over control to the rebels. Significant parts of the Syrian military had laid down their weapons and refused to fight, while others had headed to the Iraqi border and surrendered to the Iraqi forces. Hezbollah had retreated to Lebanon and the Russian military was also believed to be packing up their bases and preparing to leave.

HTS has been remaking itself for many years to shed its previous affiliations with Al-Qaeda: notably, its leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, just dropped his ‘jihadi’ name, Abu Mohammed Al-Jawlani. The group has been careful to telegraph its intentions, conducting significant amounts of diplomatic outreach and regularly communicating with the people of Syria as they made their advance. So far, it appears that they have a well-thought-out plan for taking control of Damascus and the areas previously under the control of the Assad regime, and the Syrian population generally seems to be pleased with their arrival. What happens after this euphoria wears off is unclear, but the speed and relatively bloodless nature of Assad's fall may offer a real opportunity for Syria’s future. [SOURCE - Multiple news outlets plus social media. Live Coverage on the BBC]

Due to concerns about the significant amount of Russian interference via social media with the first round of presidential elections, the Supreme Court in Romania annulled those results and demanded that the election be rerun. [SOURCE - Euronews]

A much-anticipated attempt to impeach South Korea's president following his declaration of martial law earlier in the week failed as the majority of his party's MPs left parliament and refused to participate in the vote. This adds to the confusion and turbulence in South Korea and it is unclear what will happen next. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Opposition candidate and former President, John Mahama, won Ghana's presidential election. [SOURCE - BBC]

🛢️ Crude Futures (WTI)

$67.90

🚢 Containers (FBX Index)

$3,554

💵 USD:EUR

$1.06 (Price of 1EUR in USD)

₿ Bitcoin

$98,458

As at December 9, 05:30ET - Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.

🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania is Weak

🇩🇿 Algeria is Stable

🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable

🇦🇴 Angola is Weak

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable

🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak

🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak

🇦🇺 Australia is Stable

🇦🇹 Austria is Stable

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak

🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak

🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak

🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable

🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable

🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable

🇧🇿 Belize is Weak

🇧🇯 Benin is Weak

🇧🇹 Bhutan is Weak

🇧🇴 Bolivia is Unstable

🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak

🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable

🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak

🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable

🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable

🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak

🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak

🇨🇲 Cameroon is Weak

🇨🇦 Canada is Weak

🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable

🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable

🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable

🇨🇱 Chile is Stable

🇨🇳 China is Stable

🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak

🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak

🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable

🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable

🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak

🇨🇾 Cyprus is Weak

🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable

🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable

🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable

🇩🇯 Djibouti is Stable

🇩🇲 Dominica is Stable

🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak

🇹🇱 East Timor is Weak

🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak

🇪🇬 Egypt is Stable

🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak

🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable

🇪🇷 Eritrea is Weak

🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable

🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak

🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Unstable

🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable

🇫🇯 Fiji is Stable

🇫🇮 Finland is Stable

🇫🇷 France is Weak

🇬🇦 Gabon is Unstable

🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak

🇩🇪 Germany is Weak

🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable

🇬🇷 Greece is Stable

🇬🇩 Grenada is Weak

🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak

🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable

🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable

🇬🇾 Guyana is Weak

🇭🇹 Haiti is Unstable

🇭🇳 Honduras is Unstable

🇭🇺 Hungary is Weak

🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable

🇮🇳 India is Weak

🇮🇩 Indonesia is Weak

🇮🇷 Iran is Weak

🇮🇶 Iraq is Weak

🇮🇪 Ireland is Weak

🇮🇱 Israel is Weak

🇮🇹 Italy is Weak

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast is Weak

🇯🇲 Jamaica is Weak

🇯🇵 Japan is Weak

🇯🇴 Jordan is Weak

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan is Weak

🇰🇪 Kenya is Weak

🇰🇮 Kiribati is Weak

🇰🇼 Kuwait is Stable

🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan is Weak

🇱🇦 Laos is Weak

🇱🇻 Latvia is Weak

🇱🇧 Lebanon is Unstable

🇱🇸 Lesotho is Weak

🇱🇷 Liberia is Weak

🇱🇾 Libya is Unstable

🇱🇮 Liechtenstein is Stable

🇱🇹 Lithuania is Stable

🇱🇺 Luxembourg is Stable

🇲🇰 Macedonia is Weak

🇲🇬 Madagascar is Weak

🇲🇼 Malawi is Weak

🇲🇾 Malaysia is Stable

🇲🇻 Maldives is Weak

🇲🇱 Mali is Unstable

🇲🇹 Malta is Weak

🇲🇭 Marshall Islands is Stable

🇲🇷 Mauritania is Weak

🇲🇺 Mauritius is Stable

🇲🇽 Mexico is Unstable

🇲🇩 Moldova is Weak

🇲🇨 Monaco is Stable

🇲🇳 Mongolia is Stable

🇲🇪 Montenegro is Weak

🇲🇦 Morocco is Stable

🇲🇿 Mozambique is Weak

🇲🇲 Myanmar is Critically Unstable

🇳🇦 Namibia is Stable

🇳🇷 Nauru is Weak

🇳🇵 Nepal is Weak

🇳🇱 Netherlands is Stable

🇳🇿 New Zealand is Stable

🇳🇮 Nicaragua is Unstable

🇳🇪 Niger is Weak

🇳🇬 Nigeria is Weak

🇰🇵 North Korea is Unstable

🇳🇴 Norway is Stable

🇴🇲 Oman is Stable

🇵🇰 Pakistan is Weak

🇵🇼 Palau is Stable

🇵🇦 Panama is Stable

🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea is Weak

🇵🇾 Paraguay is Stable

🇵🇪 Peru is Weak

🇵🇭 Philippines is Weak

🇵🇱 Poland is Weak

🇵🇹 Portugal is Stable

🇶🇦 Qatar is Stable

🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo is Weak

🇷🇴 Romania is Stable

🇷🇺 Russia is Weak

🇷🇼 Rwanda is Stable

🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable

🇱🇨 Saint Lucia is Weak

🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable

🇼🇸 Samoa is Weak

🇸🇲 San Marino is Stable

🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe is Stable

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is Stable

🇸🇳 Senegal is Stable

🇷🇸 Serbia is Weak

🇸🇱 Sierra Leone is Weak

🇸🇬 Singapore is Stable

🇸🇰 Slovakia is Weak

🇸🇮 Slovenia is Stable

🇸🇧 Solomon Islands is Weak

🇸🇴 Somalia is Unstable

🇿🇦 South Africa is Weak

🇰🇷 South Korea is Stable

🇸🇸 South Sudan is Critically Unstable

🇪🇸 Spain is Weak

🇱🇰 Sri Lanka is Weak

🇸🇩 Sudan is Critically Unstable

🇸🇷 Suriname is Weak

🇸🇪 Sweden is Weak

🇨🇭 Switzerland is Stable

🇸🇾 Syria is Critically Unstable

🇹🇼 Taiwan is Weak

🇹🇯 Tajikistan is Weak

🇹🇿 Tanzania is Stable

🇹🇭 Thailand is Weak

🇧🇸 The Bahamas is Stable

🇬🇲 The Gambia is Stable

🇹🇬 Togo is Weak

🇹🇴 Tonga is Stable

🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago is Weak

🇹🇳 Tunisia is Weak

🇹🇷 Turkey is Weak

🇹🇲 Turkmenistan is Weak

🇹🇻 Tuvalu is Weak

🇺🇬 Uganda is Weak

🇺🇦 Ukraine is Unstable

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates is Stable

🇬🇧 United Kingdom is Stable

🇺🇸 United States Of America is Stable

🇺🇾 Uruguay is Stable

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan is Weak

🇻🇺 Vanuatu is Weak

🇻🇪 Venezuela is Unstable

🇻🇳 Vietnam is Stable

🇪🇭 Western Sahara is Weak

🇾🇪 Yemen is Critically Unstable

🇿🇲 Zambia is Weak

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe is Weak

Carpe tomorrow!

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