Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning.

Yesterday, I shared the first STREP (situation report) describing and analyzing how current events affect stability in a country. These are designed to give you snapshots of how things are in a location right now and whether the situation is more or less stable (or broadly the same).

That lets you decide if you need to take steps in the short-term to respond to a situation. Or, if nothing else, help answer the question, ‘is this normal?’ when you’re looking at a situation.

This is as close to a real-time or breaking news kind of product that DCDR is likely to have for the simple fact that the BBC and CNN do a much better job of reporting the news fast.

(And as I noted yesterday, information without context is not much use: we still need to spend some analyzing and contextualizing the information if it’s to be useful.)

Today, I want to share something very different and give you a glimpse of the future.

Let’s start by being clear: these aren’t predictions of what will happen. There are too many imponderables to accurately forecast how anything geopolitical will play over any kind of timescale. So trying to predict an outcome is — to me — more problematic than helpful.

Why?

Because the folks reading an assessment that you present with ‘high confidence’ will be anchored to that outcome, potentially ignoring other possibilities, even if these play out in front of them.

But that doesn't mean that we can’t get some sense of how things will play out if we are thoughful.

In the case of DCDR, that takes the form of a multi-part assessment process.

1 - Determine what’s ‘normal’ for that location

These baseline assessments are built using 300+ specific conditions (aka the ‘stability pairs’) that I’ve developed over 2+ decades of country risk assessments. These give us a consistent way to assess conditions in a location and to provide a stability assessment.

2 - Identify what’s coming up over the next 60-90 days

Next, we look for significant events that are scheduled in the next quarter or so to get a sense of what’s coming up. In addition to fixed events, like a scheduled election, there may also be ongoing or floating events like peace negotiations or even changes in season.

3 - Ask ‘so what’?

Finally, we use a combination of the stability pairs and some specific assessment prompts to get the model to how events might play out with respect to country stability.

➡️ The result?

The result is a report that outlines how things could develop including, in many cases, flags to look out for. These flags are where it gets really interesting, but we’ll come back to that in a moment.

First, here are a couple of examples of mid-term assessments to let you see what I’m talking about. But I need to stress that these preliminary assessments for demonstration purposes only. Please don’t rewrite your entire strategy on Sudan based on this report….

These Assessments are Highly Provisional and Shared for Demonstration Purposes Only

These assessments compare the existing situation in a country with upcoming events to determine if events are likely to improve, deteriorate, or leave the situation unchanged. Upcoming events fall in the 60-90 day period from the report date.

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Sudan is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. Power struggles between rival military factions: Clashes between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) indicate ongoing power struggles that could lead to further instability. The potential for violence and increased tensions between military factions could exacerbate the current political unrest. 2. Political transitions and agreements: The exclusion of key dissenters from the agreement between Sudan's main pro-democracy group and ruling generals could lead to protests or opposition movements. This could further destabilize the political situation and lead to increased unrest. 3. Public demonstrations: If the public is dissatisfied with the pace of democratic transition or if there are attempts to suppress dissent, demonstrations could continue. This would indicate ongoing political instability and potential for violence. 4. International and regional dynamics: Any shifts in Sudan's relationships with neighboring countries and international actors could impact the internal political landscape. If external pressures increase or if Sudan's relationships deteriorate, it could further destabilize the country. These upcoming events have the potential to exacerbate the current instability in Sudan, leading to increased violence, political unrest, and potential for further conflict.

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Mid-Term Assessment:

The anticipated impact of the upcoming events on the situation in Ukraine is Degrades. This conclusion is based on the following analysis: 1. Continuation or Escalation of the Conflict: The ongoing military conflict with Russia is the most significant factor affecting Ukraine's political stability. Any escalation or significant developments in the war could have profound impacts. The potential for increased violence and loss of life, as well as the strain on resources and infrastructure, would further degrade stability. 2. International Diplomacy and Negotiations: Diplomatic efforts or peace talks, as well as changes in international support or sanctions, could influence the political landscape. While diplomatic efforts may offer some hope for resolution, the potential for continued stalemate or breakdown in negotiations could exacerbate tensions and instability. 3. Internal Political Developments: Domestic political events, such as elections, government reforms, or shifts in political alliances, could affect stability. Given the ongoing conflict and the challenges faced by the government, internal political developments are likely to be overshadowed by the conflict and may not have a significant impact on stability. 4. Economic Conditions: The state of Ukraine's economy, influenced by the war, international aid, and sanctions on Russia, can impact political stability. The ongoing conflict has already had a severe impact on the economy, with infrastructure damage, loss of industries, and displacement of people. Economic instability can lead to social unrest and further degrade political stability. 5. International Legal Proceedings: Outcomes of international legal actions, such as war crimes investigations or proceedings at the International Court of Justice, could have political repercussions. While international legal proceedings may provide some accountability for the conflict, the immediate impact on stability is likely to be limited. 6. Humanitarian Situation: The humanitarian situation, including the handling of refugees and internally displaced persons, can affect public opinion and political stability. The ongoing conflict has already created a significant humanitarian crisis, with millions of people displaced and in need of assistance. The strain on resources and the potential for increased tensions between host communities and displaced populations can further degrade stability. 7. Energy Security: Ukraine's energy security, especially during the winter months, can be a significant factor, as reliance on external energy sources can be leveraged politically. The potential for disruptions in energy supply, whether due to political or logistical reasons, can have a direct impact on stability, as it affects daily life and public sentiment. Overall, the combination of ongoing conflict, economic challenges, and humanitarian crisis suggests that the upcoming events will degrade the stability situation in Ukraine.

These Assessments are Highly Provisional and Shared for Demonstration Purposes Only

Hopefully, you’ll now have a good idea of what these assessments will look like and how these can assist. Instead of trying to predict exactly what will happen, we now have a summary of how things might play out which, in turn, you can then apply to your own business.

That’s going to give the opportunity to build out a couple of courses of action, ready for the most likely outcomes. Then, as you see things develop and events come into focus, you can implement the appropriate plan meaning you’re taking appropriate action much faster than you could if you were purely reactive.

And the flags? The flags are the events that signal that events are taking a particular course or that one of the destabilizing factors is more likely. For example, from the Ukraine assessment.

That means that if you see a major disruption to Ukraine’s energy supply, things are very likely to take a turn for the worse. That in itself isn't rocket science — very little of what I do could be described that way — but the point is that you have a summary of the situation, and the flags to look out for, much more quickly than you would otherwise.

In turn, that lets you move much faster, which is all that DCDR is designed to do.

(If you want to know more about how to design courses of action and use flags — which in turn become the triggers I refer to — I’ve added an old video at the bottom of the post that explains that in more detail.)

These assessments are an example of greater power / great responsibility because, while they can be extremely valuable (you can imagine the benefit of being able to move days before a significant event unfolds) these are extremely hard to get right.

And by right, I mean have the right balance of specificity and nuance. Too specific and it is likely that the assessment is missing some other plausible outcomes. But too nuanced means that the product is worthless from a planning perspective.

I grade the examples above a solid C+ or B-: around what you’d expect to get from a lot of intelligence shops out there. Unfortunately, some of the assessments I grade as a C- or lower — the analysis is too milque toast or the inferences are plain wrong — so there’s some work to be done before I unleash the fully automated product on users.

However, that shouldn’t take too much longer, so expect to see these mid-term assessments appearing in the newsletter in early February.

I’ll be back tomorrow with the standard SITREP and on Thursday, a piece of deeper analysis, probably around supply chains: there’s a lot going on in that space and I have a weird fascination with shipping containers….

See you tomorrow

~Andrew

PS - What countries did I miss from the SITREP that are essential to your business? Hit reply and I’ll get these added.

PPS - Here’s the contingency planning workshop I mentioned (complete with COVID lock-down beard I notice…).

Contingency planning Scenarios and Course of Action relationships