Archived post from legacy Decis reporting
Good morning.
A Hezbollah attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday significantly ratcheted up tension on Israel’s northern border. Israel has yet to respond (as of Mondat am ET), but careful calibration is needed to avoid this boiling over into all-out conflict, which would be disastrous for Israel.
Meanwhile, despite the very strong exit polls for the González / Machado opposition, President Nicolas Maduro claimed an overwhelming majority in Venezuela’s election early Monday morning.
Finally, the effects of the crackdown on protests in Bangladesh are being felt in global supply chains and in the country’s foreign income.
But first, the stability matrix.
Reminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer
Is somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix. (Bulgaria is coming, Bill, promise…)
🗓️ Mark your calendar…
Curious about how to use AI to extract greater insight from your data?
I’ll be joining my friend Mads from Human Risks next Monday to discuss how we are using AI to extract value from data and turn information into actionable intelligence. (You don’t think I do all the country stability ratings by hand, do you?)
The session is targeted at security risk managers but anyone who is curious how to use AI in this way will benefit from this session.
Events of interest that we’re monitoring.
🇻🇪 Venezuela
Venezuela is currently rated as critically unstable and more turbulent
Venezuala’s elections on Sunday took place peacefully but with widespread opposition complaints of interference and intimidation. Opposition polling early Sunday night suggested a split of 65% / 31% in favor of González, but President Maduro claimed victory early Monday morning with a 51% / 44% split in his favor.
Via @visegrad24 on X.com
From CNN
Despite the upset among the opposition and international condemnation of the results, Maduro is in firm control of all state elements—including the courts—while retaining a solid base of support. The leaves the opposition has few, if any, means to challenge these results. Plus, Maduro has proven able to withstand international pressure, so complaints from regional neighbors and the US will have little effect. However, the difficulty for Maduro now comes from promises he made in the run-up to the election to solve the crippling economic hardship Venezuelans face. Solving these problems would mean abandoning his economic policies and upsetting those who benefit from the country’s imbalance, things he has been unwilling or unable to do so far. Therefore, pressure from political cronies and his base of support is likely to be what exerts the greatest pressure. Meanwhile, the outward flow of Venezuelans will continue, reducing the country’s workforce and maintaining pressure on the US southern border. Decis News summary for Venezuela for the week July 22 - July 28 This week's critical events centered around Venezuela's pivotal presidential election, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro facing his strongest challenge yet from the opposition. The election campaign concluded amidst high tensions, with Maduro [SOURCE] warning of a potential "bloodbath" if he loses, raising international concerns about the stability of the electoral process. Opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia emerged as a frontrunner, [SOURCE] leading polls with 60% support. However, María Corina Machado, dubbed Venezuela's "Iron Lady," remains a significant figure in the opposition movement despite being barred from running [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the country's economic struggles, with rural areas [SOURCE] bearing the brunt of an economy in ruins. Despite some cooling of inflation, voters report they still can't make ends meet [SOURCE]. The election also highlighted Venezuela's potential in the global natural gas market, with the next president facing the challenge of boosting production [SOURCE]. International observers expressed concern over the fairness of the election, with some, including Argentina's Fernandez, withdrawing from observer missions [SOURCE]. The U.S. called for a "peaceful outcome" [SOURCE] and indicated it may adjust its sanctions policy post-election. As Venezuelans head to the polls, the outcome remains uncertain, with both sides predicting victory but the opposition fearing potential fraud [SOURCE]. This election represents a critical juncture for Venezuela, potentially marking the end of Maduro's rule or solidifying his power for another term. 🇮🇱 Israel / 🇱🇧 LebanonLebanon is assessed as unstable and more turbulent than normal Israel is assessed as stable and more turbulent than normal A Hezbollah rocket hit a Druze community in the occupied Golan Heights on Saturday, killing 12 youths in the most deadly attack on Israel’s northern flank since October 7th. Hezbollah has conducted low-level attacks over the past 9 months of the conflict in solidarity with Hamas but has been careful to avoid overstepping the mark and risking an escalation with Israel.  Decis.ai event map of incidents along the Israeli / Lebanese border / southern Syria, June 22 - July 22 Data via ACLED Despite the fact that this was almost certainly an accident — attacking the Druze would open up old divisions in Lebanon — the attack has ratcheted up tension on Israel’s northern border significantly. The lack of a decisive Israeli response (as at Mondat am ET) speaks to an unwillingness to risk all-out conflict with Hezbollah while the IDF is embroiled in the Gaza conflict and the ambiguous status of the Druze within Israel. Israel will have to find a way to conduct a meaningful retaliation while avoiding further escalation, which would lead to all-out conflict in the north. But as we wrote in February (see the ‘Israel: Engagement on Three Fronts?’ section), this kind of careful calibration is precarious. There is always the potential for overreach or wider damage than anticipated, either of which could very easily lead to a full-blown conflict in the north Engaging a second front with Hezbollah would be disastrous for Israel as well as opening up the potential for a series of wider regional conflicts. These would have significant effects on regional stability across the entire Middle East from Turkey to Iran, with knock-on effects on crude oil and related products. Decis News summary for Lebanon for the week July 22 - July 28 This week's critical events centered around escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with significant military actions and their potential to spark a wider regional conflict. Key developments included: 1. Intensified Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, with the Israeli Air Force striking multiple Hezbollah facilities and infrastructure throughout the week [SOURCE]. 2. Hezbollah's increased use of drones and surface-to-air missiles against Israeli aircraft, including a drone swarm that triggered sirens in northern Israel [SOURCE]. 3. A deadly rocket attack from Lebanon on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, killing at least 12 civilians, marking the most severe incident since the start of recent hostilities [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were: 1. The Israeli military's preparation for potential escalation, including completion of exercises simulating combat in Lebanon [SOURCE]. 2. Diplomatic efforts to prevent full-scale war, with Israel reportedly giving diplomacy a chance despite readiness for conflict [SOURCE]. 3. The impact of ongoing tensions on civilian life, with Israel's Education Minister announcing that schools in the north won't reopen in September due to security concerns [SOURCE]. 4. International reactions, including the United States deferring removal of some Lebanese immigrants due to the Israel-Hezbollah tensions [SOURCE]. The situation remains highly volatile, with both Israel and Hezbollah exchanging fire and warnings, raising concerns about the potential for a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon [SOURCE]. Decis News summary for Israel for the week July 22 - July 28 This week's critical events included escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, with a deadly rocket attack on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights [SOURCE], prompting Israel to strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon [SOURCE]. Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington highlighted ongoing US support for Israel, despite tensions with the Biden administration [SOURCE]. Ongoing issues of note were the continued conflict in Gaza, with Israel ordering new evacuations in Khan Younis [SOURCE], and debates over US military aid to Israel amid protests [SOURCE]. The potential for a wider regional conflict loomed large, with Israel preparing for a possible "decisive offensive" against Hezbollah [SOURCE]. Internationally, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada called for Israel to respond to the International Court of Justice and for a ceasefire in Gaza [SOURCE]. Additionally, concerns were raised about the safety of Israeli athletes at the upcoming Paris Olympics due to pro-Palestinian protests [SOURCE]. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh - UpdateBangladesh is currently rated stable but more turbulent The disruptions in Bangladesh continue, and in addition to the upheaval of the protests, there are growing economic implications for Bangladesh and the firms that rely on the country’s garment sectors. A report in the apparel and textiles publication Sourcing Journal estimated that Bangladesh was losing $150 million a day as the disruptions of the protests exacerbated interruptions caused by an existing energy crisis.
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