Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🛢️ LNG price up 4.6% vs its 28-day baseline (+2.1 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of LNG (exports) — NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy).
🇵🇰🇦🇫 Pakistan launches airstrikes on Afghanistan after thwarted drone attack · 06:05 UTC — Pakistan Launches Precision Airstrikes on Afghanistan Following Thwarted Drone Attack · Sources: jpost.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇹🇷 US blockade forces Iran onto overwhelmed Turkey-Iran land trade · 04:48 UTC — US Blockade Forces Iran to Rely on Overwhelmed Turkey-Iran Land Trade · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran presents 60-day ceasefire roadmap to US · 02:33 UTC — Iran Presents 60-Day Ceasefire Roadmap to US Amid Diplomatic Push · Sources: gulfnews.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US redirects 115 ships in renewed Iran naval blockade · 02:33 UTC — US redirects 115 ships in renewed Iran naval blockade · Sources: gulfnews.com
🇮🇳 Indian sailor killed in attack on cargo ship in Hormuz · 17:03 UTC — Indian Sailor Killed in Attack on Cargo Ship in Strait of Hormuz
🇺🇸🇻🇪 Trump and Venezuela's Rodriguez discuss debt restructuring · 16:48 UTC — Trump and Venezuela's Rodriguez Discuss Debt Restructuring Amid Political Shift · Sources: straitstimes.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's Pezeshkian calls US 'terrorism' at UN, vows Hormuz blockade · 15:33 UTC — Iran President Pezeshkian Calls US 'Terrorism' at UNGA, Vows to Block Strait of Hormuz · Sources: hindustantimes.com
Europe faces record fuel prices and supply disruptions · 14:04 UTC — Europe's Largest Fuel Crisis: Record Prices and Supply Disruptions · Sources: euronews.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi airstrikes kill 10 in Yemen, Houthi media reports · 11:48 UTC — Houthi Media Reports 10 Killed in Saudi Airstrikes on Yemen
🇪🇹 Renewed fighting in Ethiopia; Tigray rebels claim federal invasion · 11:48 UTC — Tigray Rebels Claim Federal 'Invasion' Amidst Renewed Fighting in Ethiopia
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇦🇫 Afghanistan — Kabul Fires Eight Drones at Pakistan, Islamabad Says [International Relations] · khaama.com · also: indiatoday.in, m.rediff.com
🇦🇫 Afghanistan — Pakistan says it shot down eight drones from Afghanistan amid border firing [International Relations] · indiatoday.in · also: dailyexcelsior.com, m.rediff.com
🇦🇫 Afghanistan — Five Afghan Family Members Die Of Thirst While Trying To Reach Iran [Quality of Life] · jpost.com · also: kesq.com, prokerala.com
🇦🇫 Afghanistan — An Afghan Mother And Her Daughters Left Their Homeland In Search Of A Better Life. They Died Of Thirst [Quality of Life] · rferl.org · also: olaylar.az, express.co.uk
🇪🇪 Estonia — Russia’s Baltic Escalation Playbook: Fear Is Part of the Strategy [Political Equilibrium] · stopfake.org · also: lessentiel.lu, timesnownews.com
🇰🇷 South Korea — North Korea revises science and technology law, adds unpaid labor penalties [Democratic Integrity] · dailynk.com · also: yna.co.kr, mk.co.kr
🇴🇲 Oman — Indian sailor killed in attack on ship MV Cape Dao near Oman, 18 others among crew [Law and Order] · indiatoday.in · also: indiatv.in, lalluram.com
🇾🇪 Yemen — Iranian advisers helped Houthis seize Yemen's Red Sea coast in less than 48 hours: report [International Relations] · thehindu.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
☕ Coffee price (arabica · KC=F daily settlement) ▼ 275.9 -15.5% · -2.1σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 45% (major)
🛢️ LNG price (exports · NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy) ▲ 3.2 +4.6% · +2.1σ
Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy)