Critical alerts

Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours

🛢️ LNG price up 4.6% vs its 28-day baseline (+2.1 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of LNG (exports) — NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy).

🇵🇰🇦🇫 Pakistan launches airstrikes on Afghanistan after thwarted drone attack · 06:05 UTC — Pakistan Launches Precision Airstrikes on Afghanistan Following Thwarted Drone Attack · Sources: jpost.com

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇹🇷 US blockade forces Iran onto overwhelmed Turkey-Iran land trade · 04:48 UTC — US Blockade Forces Iran to Rely on Overwhelmed Turkey-Iran Land Trade · Sources: apnews.com

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran presents 60-day ceasefire roadmap to US · 02:33 UTC — Iran Presents 60-Day Ceasefire Roadmap to US Amid Diplomatic Push · Sources: gulfnews.com

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US redirects 115 ships in renewed Iran naval blockade · 02:33 UTC — US redirects 115 ships in renewed Iran naval blockade · Sources: gulfnews.com

🇮🇳 Indian sailor killed in attack on cargo ship in Hormuz · 17:03 UTC — Indian Sailor Killed in Attack on Cargo Ship in Strait of Hormuz

🇺🇸🇻🇪 Trump and Venezuela's Rodriguez discuss debt restructuring · 16:48 UTC — Trump and Venezuela's Rodriguez Discuss Debt Restructuring Amid Political Shift · Sources: straitstimes.com

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's Pezeshkian calls US 'terrorism' at UN, vows Hormuz blockade · 15:33 UTC — Iran President Pezeshkian Calls US 'Terrorism' at UNGA, Vows to Block Strait of Hormuz · Sources: hindustantimes.com

Europe faces record fuel prices and supply disruptions · 14:04 UTC — Europe's Largest Fuel Crisis: Record Prices and Supply Disruptions · Sources: euronews.com

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi airstrikes kill 10 in Yemen, Houthi media reports · 11:48 UTC — Houthi Media Reports 10 Killed in Saudi Airstrikes on Yemen

🇪🇹 Renewed fighting in Ethiopia; Tigray rebels claim federal invasion · 11:48 UTC — Tigray Rebels Claim Federal 'Invasion' Amidst Renewed Fighting in Ethiopia

Big movers

Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline

No country is moving beyond its normal variability.

Headline events

Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet

🇦🇫 Afghanistan — Kabul Fires Eight Drones at Pakistan, Islamabad Says [International Relations] · khaama.com · also: indiatoday.in, m.rediff.com

Commodities

Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers

☕ Coffee price (arabica · KC=F daily settlement) ▼ 275.9 -15.5% · -2.1σ

Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 45% (major)

🛢️ LNG price (exports · NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy) ▲ 3.2 +4.6% · +2.1σ

Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy)