Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🌾 Wheat price down 5.5% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.0 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Wheat (exports) — ZW=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes.
🇫🇷 France drafts UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz · 02:18 UTC — France Drafts UN Resolution for Strait of Hormuz as Middle East Tensions Escalate · Sources: apnews.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump rejects Iranian ceasefire, considers resuming war · 01:18 UTC — Trump Rejects Iranian Ceasefire, Eyes War Resumption Post-Elections · Sources: jpost.com
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Trump warns China's Xi over Iran support · 20:48 UTC — Trump Warns Xi Over Iran Support; Peace Talks Advance · Sources: nypost.com
🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦🇦🇪 US proposes trilateral Russia-Ukraine peace talks in UAE · 17:03 UTC — US Proposes Trilateral Peace Talks with Russia and Ukraine in UAE: Zelensky · Sources: livemint.com
🇾🇪🇸🇦 UN Security Council condemns Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia · 14:33 UTC — UN Security Council Condemns Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Amid Naval Blockade
🇪🇹 Fighting in northern Ethiopia sparks blackout and blockade fears · 13:49 UTC — Fighting in Northern Ethiopia Sparks Fears of Communications Blackout and Blockade · Sources: aljazeera.com
🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦 US pushes for revived Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks amid attacks · 13:03 UTC — US Pushes for Revived Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Amidst Ongoing Attacks · Sources: aljazeera.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Ethiopia Returns to Civil War [Political Equilibrium] · foreignpolicy.com · also: newshour.podcast, slate.fr
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Deadly New Strikes In Russia's War On Ukraine As Spillover Concerns Mount [Law and Order] · rferl.org · also: westernadvocate.com.au, n-tv.de
🇳🇬 Nigeria — Nigeria faces the world’s highest projected death toll from super El Niño heat: what could save lives [Environmental Hazards] · theconversation.com · also: newsgram.com, noticias.r7.com
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Heavy fighting, internet disruption as Ethiopia conflict rages [Law and Order] · thehindu.com · also: actu.orange.fr, english.aawsat.com
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Fighting rages in Ethiopia as civil war resumes [Law and Order] · rte.ie · also: vaticannews.va, newshour.podcast
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Residents of largest city in northern Ethiopia express fear after eruption of fighting [Law and Order] · winnipegfreepress.com · also: ottumwacourier.com, usnews.com
🇮🇱 Israel — Israel carries out more attacks on southern Lebanon [Law and Order] · middleeasteye.net · also: qna.org.qa, aa.com.tr
🇱🇧 Lebanon — Israel carries out more attacks on southern Lebanon [Law and Order] · middleeasteye.net
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🛢️ LNG price (exports · NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy) ▲ 3.26 +10.7% · +6.0σ
Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy)
🌾 Rice price (exports · ZR=F daily settlement) ▲ 16.58 +6.3% · +3.0σ
Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy)
🌾 Wheat price (exports · ZW=F daily settlement) ▼ 688.0 -5.5% · -2.0σ