Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
Gaza war death toll surpasses 74,000 as ceasefire stalls · 07:18 UTC — Palestinian Death Toll in Gaza War Surpasses 74,000 as Ceasefire Remains Stalled · Sources: apnews.com
🌾 Maize price down 2.0% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.3 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Maize (exports) — ZC=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes.
🇬🇧 Hamas chief's bodyguard allegedly plotted UK terror attack · 01:48 UTC — Hamas Chief's Bodyguard Granted UK Citizenship Allegedly Plotted Terror Attack · Sources: telegraph.co.uk
🇱🇾 Libya oil pipeline reopens after armed blockade cost $95 million · 22:18 UTC — Libya Oil Pipeline Reopens After Armed Blockade Costs $95 Million
🇴🇲🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oman calls for restraint, mediation in US-Iran Hormuz conflict · 21:03 UTC — Oman Calls for Restraint and Mediation in US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Conflict
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump rejects Iran's 7-day plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz · 18:33 UTC — Trump Rejects Iran's Seven-Day Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
🇮🇷🇧🇪 Iran linked to antisemitic terror attacks in Belgium · 17:33 UTC — Iran Linked to Antisemitic Terror Attacks in Belgium Earlier This Year · Sources: jpost.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇧🇪 Belgium — Iran ordered attacks on Jewish sites in Belgium, officials confirm [International Relations] · fr.timesofisrael.com · also: cursorinfo.co.il, israelnationalnews.com
🇵🇰 Pakistan — 12 Killed, 18 Injured in Suicide Attack in Northwest Pakistan [Law and Order] · es.euronews.com · also: millenniumpost.in, news18.com
🇵🇰 Pakistan — Tehreek-e-Taliban claims responsibility for deadly attack in Pakistan [Law and Order] · jpost.com · also: affaritaliani.it, arabnews.pk
🇱🇾 Libya — Haftar's forces execute 30 after secret military trials in eastern Libya [Democratic Integrity] · middleeasteye.net · also: aa.com.tr, haberler.com
🇺🇦 Ukraine — 7 dead as aerial war between Russia and Ukraine intensifies [International Relations] · apnews.com · also: wtae.com, news4jax.com
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Russian attacks kill 4 across Ukraine days after Zelensky’s UN plea for help ending war [International Relations] · apnews.com · also: koreatimes.co.kr, keystone-sda.ch
🇺🇦 Ukraine — 16 dead over 24 hours as Ukraine, Russia trade strikes [International Relations] · france24.com · also: aawsat.com, zaobao.com.sg
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Russian strikes kill four in Ukraine as Kyiv drones hit Krasnodar [Law and Order] · indiatoday.in
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🛢️ LNG price (exports · NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy) ▲ 3.26 +10.8% · +4.0σ
Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy)
🌾 Rice price (exports · ZR=F daily settlement) ▲ 16.58 +6.3% · +2.9σ
Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy)
🌾 Maize price (exports · ZC=F daily settlement) ▼ 518.0 -2.0% · -2.3σ
🌾 Wheat price (exports · ZW=F daily settlement) ▼ 688.0 -6.0% · -2.2σ