Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israeli strike in southern Lebanon wounds soldier and three civilians · 07:48 UTC — Israeli Strike in Southern Lebanon Wounds Soldier and Three Civilians as Ceasefire Stalls
⛏️ Primary aluminum price down 2.3% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.4 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Primary aluminum (smelting) — ALI=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major).
🇹🇼🇺🇸 Taiwan plans $850M ammunition spend against potential PLA blockade · 02:33 UTC — Taiwan Plans US$850 Million Ammunition Spend to Prepare for Potential PLA Blockade · Sources: scmp.com
🇮🇶🇸🇾 Iraq imports gasoline via Syrian port to bypass Hormuz · 18:03 UTC — Iraq Imports Gasoline via Syrian Port to Bypass Closed Strait of Hormuz · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷 Iran's currency hits record low amid war and blockade · 16:18 UTC — Iran's Currency Hits Record Low Amidst War and Economic Blockade · Sources: apnews.com
🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russian envoy meets US officials on energy and peace talks · 15:18 UTC — Russian Envoy Kirill Dmitriev Meets US Officials in Washington on Energy and Peace Talks
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran threatens new strikes amid Hormuz standoff · 14:18 UTC — Iran Threatens New Strikes Amidst Hormuz Strait Standoff and US Response Wait
🇺🇸 Trump expected to drop US diesel export ban plan · 10:18 UTC — EU Officials Expect Trump to Drop Diesel Export Ban Plan · Sources: politico.eu
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇪🇬 Egypt — Eritrea’s proxy war against Ethiopia [International Relations] · jns.org · also: firstpost.com, taz.de
🇵🇱 Poland — Poland changes rules of engagement for firing on foreign aircraft amid growing Russia threat [International Relations] · notesfrompoland.com · also: afpbb.com, vnexpress.net
🇦🇫 Afghanistan — Explosion Damages Security Post in Herat, Officials Say [Law and Order] · arabnews.com · also: ianslive.in, tribune.com.pk
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Eritrea’s proxy war against Ethiopia [International Relations] · jns.org · also: firstpost.com, taz.de
🇳🇵 Nepal — Nepal rain kills 27 as Manang avalanche leaves 22 missing [Environmental Hazards] · indiatoday.in · also: jornalopcao.com.br, lagaceta.com.ar
🇳🇵 Nepal — 27 killed across Nepal due to incessant rainfall since September 24: Authorities [Environmental Hazards] · thehindu.com · also: news18.com, newstodaynet.com
🇳🇵 Nepal — Nepal rain disasters kill 27 as landslides and floods hit 1,082 families [Environmental Hazards] · indiatoday.in · also: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, newindianexpress.com
🇲🇲 Myanmar — UN alarmed by reports that Myanmar air strike killed 50 [Law and Order] · asiaone.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Primary aluminum price (smelting · ALI=F daily settlement) ▼ 3320.5 -2.3% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major)
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1230.5 -8.4% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1730.5 -3.9% · -2.1σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)