Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 Russia intensifies strikes on Kyiv after drone attack · 09:03 UTC — Russia Intensifies Kyiv Strikes Following Drone Attack; U.S. Pushes for October Peace Talks · Sources: cnbc.com
🇾🇪 Houthis seize Turbah, advance on Taiz in Yemen · 08:18 UTC — Houthis Seize Turbah, Advance on Taiz as Yemen Civil War Revives · Sources: apnews.com
Mideast oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tanker attacks · 07:03 UTC — Middle East Oil Exports Surpass Pre-War Levels Amid Rising Tanker Attacks in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🌾 Maize price down 5.9% vs its 28-day baseline (-3.3 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Maize (exports) — ZC=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes.
🇦🇪🇺🇸🇮🇷 UAE hit by fuel surge, flight suspensions amid Hormuz tensions · 05:48 UTC — US-Iran Conflict Impacts UAE: Fuel Prices Surge, Flight Suspensions, and Strait of Hormuz Tensions · Sources: gulfnews.com
🇺🇸🇬🇧 US relocates bombers from UK base after suspected terror attack · 21:33 UTC — US Air Force Relocates Bombers from UK Base After Suspected Terror Attack · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷 More tankers struck in Middle East amid Hormuz tensions · 12:33 UTC — More tankers struck in the Middle East as Iran reiterates conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz · Sources: cnbc.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran warns US no military solution to Mideast war · 10:18 UTC — Iran Warns US of No Military Solution to Middle East War Amidst Strait of Hormuz Tensions
🇬🇧 Tanker struck in Strait of Hormuz; crew safe · 09:33 UTC — Tanker Struck in Strait of Hormuz; Crew Safe, UK Agency Says · Sources: timesofisrael.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — Watch: Saudi air strike hits foam factory in Yemen’s Sanaa [Law and Order] · middleeasteye.net · also: 26sep.net, alyaumtv.net
🇷🇺 Russia — Russia aims to plunge Ukraine into winter darkness with mass power grid attacks [Environmental Hazards] · jpost.com · also: slate.fr, gazeteoksijen.com
🇷🇺 Russia — Russian drone slams into key Kyiv bridge during German chancellor’s visit as Putin prepares mass military mobilization: report [Law and Order] · nypost.com · also: ettoday.net, news.de
🇰🇵 North Korea — North Korea missile could put Guam in range as Kim rebuffs Trump outreach: expert [International Relations] · foxnews.com · also: nytimespost.com, vz.ru
🇰🇵 North Korea — N. Korea’s Kim Oversaw Hypersonic Missile Drill, KCNA Says [International Relations] · livemint.com · also: marketscreener.com, world.kbs.co.kr
🇬🇪 Georgia — Here's More Info on the Overnight Georgia Mass Shooting the MSM Are Barely Covering for Some Reason [Law and Order] · redstate.com · also: yahoo.com, sundayguardianlive.com
🇬🇪 Georgia — Block Party Shooting Leaves 2 Dead and 35 Wounded in Southern Georgia – Witnesses Say “It Was Gang-Related” (VIDEO) * The Gateway Pundit * by Jordan Conradson [Law and Order] · apnews.com · also: bnonews.com, aol.com
🇾🇪 Yemen — Yemen announces major offensive to retake Houthi-controlled areas [Political Equilibrium] · israelnationalnews.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🍬 Sugar price (exports · SB=F daily settlement) ▲ 19.93 +11.4% · +4.7σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 44% (major)
🌾 Maize price (exports · ZC=F daily settlement) ▼ 497.0 -5.9% · -3.3σ
⛏️ Primary aluminum price (smelting · ALI=F daily settlement) ▼ 3228.25 -5.7% · -2.9σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major)
🌾 Soybeans price (exports · ZS=F daily settlement) ▼ 1285.25 -2.2% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 58% (major), United States (USA) 28% (noteworthy)
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1174.0 -9.7% · -2.1σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)