GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Before we dive in, a quick thank you for sticking with us as we settle in to the new publication rhythm for the SITREPS. We're a little more data-heavy now to help drive decision-making tools and our AI buddies but hopefully still readable.
This story was breaking over the weekend but it took a day or so to settle; initial reports were wrapped in so much hyperbole that they seemed fictitious. Sadly not.
Russia Plague Outbreak
A 28-year-old lab technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute in Siberia has died of suspected plague, reportedly the highly contagious pneumonic form. Russian officials have launched anti-epidemic measures, quarantining the local hospital in Shelekhov and placing people under medical observation, with around 200 contacts reportedly identified. Plague remains treatable with antibiotics if caught early.
(And while this is very unlikely to become something as widespread as COVID, it's a good reminder that the pandemic plans we put into action a few years back are now woefully out of date in most organizations. Worth dusting those off and bringing them up to date.)
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇫🇷 French teens seriously injured in high school protests, police crackdown · 08:48 UTC — French Teens Seriously Injured in High School Protests and Police Crackdown
⛏️ Palladium price down 9.8% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.2 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Palladium — PA=F daily settlement. Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy).
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US blockade cripples Iran's economy; regime refuses to concede · 05:33 UTC — US Blockade Cripples Iran's Economy, Yet Regime Refuses to Concede · Sources: edition.cnn.com
Parti Quebecois wins Quebec election, promises independence referendum · 01:48 UTC — Parti Québécois Wins Quebec Election, Promises New Independence Referendum · Sources: apnews.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi-backed Yemeni forces seize vital strait from Houthis · 10:48 UTC — Saudi-backed Yemeni forces seize vital strait from Houthi rebels · Sources: independent.co.uk
🇮🇱 Israeli professor indicted for planning mass terror attack · 10:03 UTC — Israeli Professor Indicted for Planning Mass Terror Attack · Sources: jpost.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇸🇾 Syria — A terrible beauty is born: Syria after Assad [Political Equilibrium] · arabic.euronews.com · also: milliyet.com.tr, dunya.com
🇷🇺 Russia — Russia pounds Kyiv during German chancellor’s visit in a new escalation [Political Equilibrium] · apnews.com · also: bfm.ru, dostor.org
🇾🇪 Yemen — Yemen military announces broad strikes against Houthis [Political Equilibrium] · france24.com · also: sg.news.yahoo.com, elbalad.news
🇾🇪 Yemen — Yemen, Saudi Arabia target Houthis in new campaign as war escalates [Political Equilibrium] · apnews.com · also: irishexaminer.com, belfasttelegraph.co.uk
🇾🇪 Yemen — Operation 'Yemen Dawn': Saudi-led coalition joins fight to wrest Red Sea from Houthis [Political Equilibrium] · gulfnews.com · also: macaubusiness.com, aol.co.uk
🇮🇷 Iran — Two reportedly executed in Iran in connection with January 2026 protests [Democratic Integrity] · jpost.com · also: noticias.uol.com.br, ru.apa.az
🇱🇹 Lithuania — Kaliningrad, the Russian militarized exclave surrounded by NATO that triggered Putin’s nuclear threat [International Relations] · english.elpais.com · also: archyde.com, news.cri.cn
🇮🇩 Indonesia — Africa’s rhinos often get the spotlight – but Indonesia’s two rhino species are far closer to extinction [Environmental Hazards] · theconversation.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🍬 Sugar price (exports · SB=F daily settlement) ▲ 20.78 +15.5% · +4.4σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 44% (major)
🌾 Maize price (exports · ZC=F daily settlement) ▼ 497.5 -5.6% · -2.6σ
⛏️ Primary aluminum price (smelting · ALI=F daily settlement) ▼ 3241.0 -5.6% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major)
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1169.0 -9.8% · -2.2σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
How Did The Robots Do Today? 🤖
Errata
Pro users may have received a live alert yesterday, “US leaders pursue Gaza ceasefire before transition”, which was issued in error. We apologize for any inconvenience.