GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
⛏️ Primary aluminum price down 5.6% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.4 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Primary aluminum (smelting) — ALI=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major).
🇮🇱 Satellite images show Israeli forces razing Gaza towns post-ceasefire · 04:18 UTC — Satellite Images Reveal Systematic Erasure of Gaza Towns by Israeli Forces Post-Ceasefire · Sources: apnews.com
🇾🇪🇸🇦 Houthi attacks hit Saudi airports; regional escalation · 19:33 UTC — Saudi Airports Hit by Houthi Attacks; Gaza, Jerusalem, and Strait of Hormuz Escalate · Sources: apnews.com
🇲🇱🇷🇺 Mali separatists withdraw from Kidal after Russian-backed airstrikes · 14:48 UTC — Mali Separatists Announce Withdrawal from Kidal Following Russian-Backed Airstrikes · Sources: straitstimes.com
🇮🇳 Tanker attack in Strait of Hormuz injures 12, India reports · 11:18 UTC — India Reports 12 Injured in Tanker Attack in Strait of Hormuz
🇲🇾🇲🇲 Malaysia repatriates 10,000 to Myanmar amid civil war · 10:18 UTC — Malaysia Repatriates 10,000 to Myanmar Amid Safety Concerns and Civil War · Sources: aljazeera.com
🇫🇷 French pupils re-blockade high schools; clashes with police · 09:48 UTC — French Pupils Re-blockade High Schools Amid Resource Protests and Police Clashes · Sources: apnews.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo — Kenya confirms first Ebola case imported from Congo, patient has died [Quality of Life] · arabnews.com · also: agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br, netnoticias.mx
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo — Kenya confirms first case of Ebola Bundibugyo virus [Quality of Life] · bbc.co.uk · also: africabusinessnews.co.ke, ghafla.co.ke
🇸🇩 Sudan — UN Rights Council Condemns Sudan Attacks, Calls for Immediate Ceasefire [Political Equilibrium] · aljazeera.com · also: archyde.com, thebrief.news
🇾🇪 Yemen — Yemen forces reclaim key Red Sea port city from Iran-backed Houthis in major counteroffensive [Political Equilibrium] · cnbc.com · also: mainichi.jp, fnnews.com
🇾🇪 Yemen — Bab al-Mandab showdown: Saudi-backed Yemen forces claim key Red Sea strait secured [Political Equilibrium] · timesofindia.indiatimes.com · also: elwatannews.com, thefrontierpost.com
🇰🇷 South Korea — N. Korea warns of 'powerful counteraction' if S. Korea intrudes 'even a millimeter' into its territory [International Relations] · japantimes.co.jp · also: fr.yna.co.kr, globalnation.inquirer.net
🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo — Kenya confirms first Ebola case imported from Congo, patient has died [Quality of Life] · arabnews.com · also: agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br, netnoticias.mx
🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo — Kenya confirms first case of Ebola Bundibugyo virus [Quality of Life] · bbc.co.uk
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🍬 Sugar price (exports · SB=F daily settlement) ▲ 20.82 +15.6% · +4.5σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 44% (major)
⛏️ Primary aluminum price (smelting · ALI=F daily settlement) ▼ 3241.0 -5.6% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major)
🌾 Maize price (exports · ZC=F daily settlement) ▼ 507.75 -5.0% · -2.3σ
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1159.0 -10.1% · -2.2σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
