GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Some recent stories on Russia's hybrid warfare capabilities caught my attention as mid- to longer-term considerations for folks in or operating in Europe. September's drone attack on Leipzig airport as one of the latest in a series of attacks, sabotage and assassinations in Europe most likely carried out by Russia. Politico reports that European leaders are worried about how to manage and respond to a mass casualty event, something that this seen as a real possibility, but how difficult such multi-national response is, especially as a coordinated EU-centric response could be seen as a challenge to NATO. [More- Politico]
Russia is keen to squeeze Ukraine but needs other ways to exert pressure while the frontlines remain in a stalemate, hence the increase in attacks on hospitals, schools. bridges and other civilian targets, as well as expected targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure as winter sets in. But attacks in Europe would also exert additional pressure on Western capitals with the presumed intent of eroding support for Ukraine, despite an equal likelihood that support would increase.
So while there's no evidence Russia would try anything approaching a conventional campaign in Europe, sabotage, targeted killing and inciting protestors and political opposition is much more likely over the coming months.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
⛏️ Platinum price down 5.0% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.1 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Platinum — PL=F daily settlement. Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major).
🇮🇱 Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire · 05:18 UTC — 'Every day there is killing': Gazans face Israeli strikes despite ceasefire as peace deal stalls · Sources: bbc.co.uk
🇮🇳🇷🇺🇺🇦 India in talks with Russia, Ukraine on Black Sea ceasefire · 16:33 UTC — India in talks with Russia and Ukraine on ceasefire proposal following Black Sea attacks · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇨🇺🇺🇸 US intercepts $3M fuel shipments to Cuba, tightens blockade · 12:18 UTC — U.S. intercepts $3 million worth of fuel shipments to Cuba as energy blockade tightens · Sources: cbsnews.com
🇮🇷 Vance softens Iran nuclear demands amid Hormuz tensions · 11:48 UTC — Live Updates: Vance seems to soften Iran nuclear demands, Rubio says Tehran has "lost control" of Strait of Hormuz · Sources: cbsnews.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Chevron CEO warns Trump administration against diesel export ban · 09:33 UTC — Chevron CEO Warns Trump Admin Against 'Unwise' Diesel Export Ban Amid U.S.-Iran War · Sources: cnbc.com
🇮🇷 Rubio: Iran lost control of Hormuz Strait, economy in freefall · 09:33 UTC — Rubio: Iran Has Lost Control of Hormuz Strait and Economy in Freefall
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — New Houthi attacks pull Saudi Arabia further into expanding Iran conflict [International Relations] · apnews.com · also: sg.news.yahoo.com, investing.com
🇩🇪 Germany — German state defends draft ban on calling for Israel’s destruction [Democratic Integrity] · dw.com · also: correctiv.org, theyeshivaworld.com
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Heavy casualties in Ukraine after Russian strikes [Law and Order] · hurriyetdailynews.com · also: myjoyonline.com, radiosvoboda.org
🇱🇷 Liberia — 23 Indians Rescued As Unmanned Vessel Attack Sets Tanker Ablaze Off Russia’s Black Sea: What We Know So Far [Law and Order] · livemint.com · also: indiatoday.in, cnbctv18.com
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — The Fighting in Ethiopia Is Part of a Far Bigger Conflict [Political Equilibrium] · newyorker.com · also: aa.com.tr, crhoy.com
🇸🇻 El Salvador — El Salvador: Mass Trials a Mockery of Justice [Democratic Integrity] · aljazeera.com · also: europapress.es, infobae.com
🇳🇵 Nepal — Nepal suspends search and rescue operations for flood missing [Environmental Hazards] · sabcnews.com · also: cnnturk.com, tn.com.ar
🇳🇵 Nepal — Nepal ends search for flood victims as family reactions range from anger to relief [Environmental Hazards] · abcnews.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🍬 Sugar price (exports · SB=F daily settlement) ▲ 20.83 +15.6% · +4.5σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 44% (major)
⛏️ Primary aluminum price (smelting · ALI=F daily settlement) ▼ 3210.0 -5.9% · -2.6σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major)
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1138.5 -10.6% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
🌾 Maize price (exports · ZC=F daily settlement) ▼ 500.75 -5.0% · -2.3σ
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1662.7 -5.0% · -2.1σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
