GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇷🇺 Russian attack kills 7 in Zaporizhzhia · 07:48 UTC — Russian Attack Kills 7 in Zaporizhzhia Amidst Miami Peace Talks and Fuel Sanctions Lift · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇪🇹 Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of border invasion; Tigray fighting escalates · 07:33 UTC — Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea of Border Invasion; Fighting Escalates in Tigray · Sources: apnews.com
🍬 Sugar price up 11.7% vs its 28-day baseline (+2.1 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Sugar (exports) — SB=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 44% (major).
🌾 Rice price up 4.7% vs its 28-day baseline (+2.1 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Rice (exports) — ZR=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy).
🇪🇸 Spain housing crisis triggers snap elections and mass protests · 21:48 UTC — Spain's Housing Crisis Triggers Snap Elections and Mass Protests · Sources: aljazeera.com
🇮🇷 Tanker attacks surge in Strait of Hormuz as Iran chokes exports · 19:33 UTC — Tanker Attacks in Strait of Hormuz Surge to Wartime High as Iran Escalates Efforts to Choke Oil Exports · Sources: cnbc.com
🇺🇸 US imposes sweeping sanctions on International Criminal Court · 16:03 UTC — Trump Administration Imposes Sweeping Sanctions on International Criminal Court · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷 Iran threatens punishment for vessels in Strait of Hormuz · 15:18 UTC — Iran Warns of Punishment for Strait of Hormuz Vessels After LPG Tanker Attack Claims · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇮🇳 India protests over electoral commissioner amid security crackdown · 14:04 UTC — India's 'Cockroach' Movement Protests Electoral Commissioner Amid Security Crackdown · Sources: dw.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇮🇷 Iran — US lost or damaged 81 aircraft in Iran war, Congress report estimates [International Relations] · middleeasteye.net · also: ammonnews.net, geo.tv
🇦🇲 Armenia — After Ethnic Cleansing: How the World is Normalizing the New Reality in Nagorno Karabakh. Where are the Armenians in Artsakh? - Global Research [Internal Social Harmony] · globalresearch.ca · also: tokyo-np.co.jp, trend.az
🇫🇷 France — France is Sliding Toward a Sovereign Default * The Gateway Pundit * by Drieu Godefridi [Economic Resilience] · cnbc.com · also: bankingnews.gr, scenarieconomici.it
🇫🇷 France — France Riots: 715 Police Injured, €40 Million in Damage as Organizers Call for Nationwide Mobilization * The Gateway Pundit * by Antonio Graceffo [Law and Order] · dw.com · also: jeanmarcmorandini.com, eldiariomontanes.es
🇦🇫 Afghanistan — Report: Is Afghanistan Heading Toward Another Civil War? [Political Equilibrium] · khaama.com · also: theconversation.com, dpa.com
🇮🇷 Iran — Trump: War with Iran will be over soon, one way or another [International Relations] · timesofisrael.com · also: firstpost.com, 1news.az
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — How the Red Sea came to the brink of a new regional war [International Relations] · dw.com · also: dostor.org, shorouknews.com
🇲🇱 Mali — CONFLICT ZONE: Mali [Political Equilibrium] · business-standard.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1686.2 -5.6% · -2.3σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
⛏️ Primary aluminum price (smelting · ALI=F daily settlement) ▼ 3190.75 -5.8% · -2.1σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major)
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1161.5 -9.6% · -2.1σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
🌾 Rice price (exports · ZR=F daily settlement) ▲ 16.94 +4.7% · +2.1σ
Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy)
🍬 Sugar price (exports · SB=F daily settlement) ▲ 20.25 +11.7% · +2.1σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 44% (major)
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
