GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia faces 3.3% GDP contraction amid attacks, Hormuz blockade · 09:18 UTC — Saudi Arabia Faces 3.3% GDP Contraction Amid Houthi Attacks and Strait of Hormuz Blockade · Source: AFP
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Houthis blame Saudi Arabia for airstrikes in Yemen; drone downed · 06:48 UTC — Houthis Blame Saudi Arabia for Airstrikes in Yemen; Drone Shot Down · Sources: apnews.com
🌾 Maize price down 7.6% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.6 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Maize (exports) — ZC=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes.
🇷🇺🇫🇷 NATO warns Russia over escalating hybrid attacks · 06:33 UTC — NATO Warns Russia Amid Escalating Hybrid Attacks; Zelenskyy Cites Ceasefire Breach; French Student Protests Intensify · Sources: euronews.com
🇮🇳 India protests over voter list purge amid police crackdown · 03:48 UTC — Young Indians Protest Voter List Purge Amid Police Crackdown · Sources: apnews.com
IMF cuts Middle East growth outlook to -0.3% amid war · 02:33 UTC — IMF Slashes Middle East Growth Outlook to -0.3% Amid War and Strait of Hormuz Closure · Source: AFP
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump claims Ukraine ceasefire agreed; Zelensky surprised · 00:18 UTC — Trump Claims Ceasefire Agreed Upon as Zelensky Says He Was Surprised · Sources: jpost.com
🇨🇦 Canada PM Carney urges unity ahead of Alberta independence referendum · 17:03 UTC — Carney Urges Unity Ahead of Alberta Independence Referendum · Source: AFP
🇮🇷 Iran Guards claim strike on supertanker in Strait of Hormuz · 15:03 UTC — Iran Guards Claim Strike on Supertanker in Strait of Hormuz · Source: AFP
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kremlin rejects two-month truce, offers one-day election ceasefire · 11:33 UTC — Kremlin Rejects Two-Month Truce, Offers One-Day Ceasefire for Ukraine Election · Source: AFP
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Zelensky vows response to Russia over energy ceasefire · 11:33 UTC — Zelensky Vows Response to Russia Over Unconfirmed Energy Ceasefire · Source: AFP
🇮🇶🇺🇸 Iraq intensifies airstrikes against ISIS after US withdrawal · 11:18 UTC — Iraq Intensifies Airstrikes and Operations Against ISIS Following US Withdrawal · Sources: jpost.com
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 Russia refuses to confirm energy ceasefire with Ukraine · 10:48 UTC — Russia Refuses to Confirm Energy Ceasefire with Ukraine After Trump's Announcement · Source: AFP
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇳🇬 Nigeria — Gunmen kill 24 in Nigerian attacks [Law and Order] · thehindu.com · also: citizen.digital, marketscreener.com
🇸🇩 Sudan — 72 miners killed in airstrike near Sudan-Egypt border [Law and Order] · sabcnews.com · also: laprovincia.es, europapress.es
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Ethiopian govt forces enter key Tigray town near Eritrea border [Political Equilibrium] · thehindu.com · also: english.ahram.org.eg, macaubusiness.com
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea — Eight dead in September massacre at Papua New Guinea's troubled Porgera [Law and Order] · rnz.co.nz · also: pacific-waves.podcast, abc.net.au
🇱🇧 Lebanon — Lebanese Health Ministry: Israeli attacks have killed nearly 9,000 people since October 2023 [Law and Order] · middleeasteye.net · also: haberler.com, lebanondebate.com
🇪🇬 Egypt — Airstrikes Near Sudan-Egypt Border Kill Dozens [International Relations] · france24.com · also: banxnetwork.com, firstpost.com
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo — Congo's ex-President Kabila launches an anti-government front including M23 rebels [Political Equilibrium] · apnews.com · also: hln.be, shorouknews.com
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo — DR Congo's former president Joseph Kabila to lead new movement with M23 rebels [Political Equilibrium] · france24.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🌾 Maize price (exports · ZC=F daily settlement) ▼ 479.0 -7.6% · -2.6σ
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
How Did The Robots Do Today? 🤖
Errata
Pro users may have received a live alert yesterday, “Doha airport attack kills 12”, which was issued in error. We apologize for any inconvenience.
Pro users may have received a live alert yesterday, “Airstrikes hit Yemen's capital; tanker drone attack leaves two sailors missing”, which was issued in error. We apologize for any inconvenience.