GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
Supertanker hits naval mine in Strait of Hormuz · 08:33 UTC — Supertanker Carrying 2 Million Barrels of Oil Hits Naval Mine in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Iran's Khamenei killed in Israel-US operations; ceasefire announced · 03:18 UTC — Israel and US Operations Target Iran: Khamenei Killed, Ceasefire Announced · Sources: jpost.com
🇮🇳 Thousands march in Delhi amid police crackdown over election rolls · 02:18 UTC — Thousands March in Delhi Amidst Police Crackdown and Detentions Over Election Roll Irregularities · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 US crude tops $100 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks · 18:03 UTC — U.S. crude oil tops $100 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks, Ukraine vows to hit Russian refineries · Sources: cnbc.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 US crude tops $100 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks · 18:03 UTC — U.S. crude oil tops $100 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks, Ukraine vows to hit Russian refineries · Sources: cnbc.com
🇳🇪 Niger seeks to rebuild diplomatic ties after coup · 17:48 UTC — Niger Seeks to Rebuild Diplomatic Ties Following Military Coup · Sources: dw.com
🇷🇺 Pope calls Putin seeking Oleshky ceasefire · 17:18 UTC — Pope Leo XIV Recovers from Lung Cancer Surgery, Calls Putin for Oleshky Ceasefire · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇳 India detains opposition party leader amid protest crackdown · 16:48 UTC — India’s Cockroach Janta Party Leader Detained Amid Crackdown on Protests · Sources: theguardian.com
🇾🇪🇮🇱 Houthis strike Yemen palace; settlers attack Palestinian olive harvest · 14:18 UTC — Israeli Settlers Attack Palestinians During Olive Harvest; Houthis Strike Yemen Palace; Shipping Attacks Rise in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says Hormuz will reopen if US leaves region · 12:33 UTC — Live Updates: Iran says Strait of Hormuz will reopen if U.S. "leaves the region" · Sources: cbsnews.com
🇮🇶🇮🇷 Iraq reports $60bn loss as Iran blockade hits oil exports · 12:03 UTC — Iraq Reports $60bn Loss as Iran Blockade Hits Oil Exports · Source: AFP
🇨🇳🇺🇸 China proposes export controls on AI, biotech, solar to rival US · 11:03 UTC — China Proposes Export Controls on AI, Biotech, and Solar Technologies to Rival US · Source: AFP
🇨🇦 Canada PM campaigns for unity before Alberta secession vote · 09:33 UTC — Carney Campaigns for Unity Before Alberta Secession Vote · Sources: japantimes.co.jp
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇪🇬 Egypt — Ethiopia-Eritrea War Escalates, With Global Repercussions - Global Research [Political Equilibrium] · fr.africanews.com · also: thenation.com, sundayguardianlive.com
🇮🇷 Iran — Trump Mulls Using 'Mother of All Bombs' to Hit Iran [International Relations] · pjmedia.com · also: lefigaro.fr, newsverite.com
🇮🇷 Iran — Trump Considering Using 'Mother of All Bombs' Against Iran: Report [International Relations] · westernjournal.com · also: hln.be, elcolombiano.com
🇨🇳 China — Taiwan to make shipping AI hardware to China a criminal offence [International Relations] · indiatoday.in · also: storm.mg, nd.nl
🇺🇦 Ukraine — At least three killed by Russian drones in Ukraine which cut power to 370,000 [Law and Order] · aljazeera.com · also: channelnewsasia.com, jpost.com
🇮🇱 Israel — Mapping sanctions against Israel: 121 measures across 61 countries [International Relations] · blogs.timesofisrael.com · also: amad.ps, wazcam.net
🇮🇷 Iran — U.S. crude oil tops $100 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks, Ukraine vows to hit Russian refineries [International Relations] · cnbc.com · also: g1.globo.com, noticias.uol.com.br
🇷🇺 Russia — Russia strikes 9 Ukrainian regions amid Zelenskyy-Trump tensions [Law and Order] · manilatimes.net
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1642.0 -6.0% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
🌾 Rice price (exports · ZR=F daily settlement) ▲ 17.32 +5.4% · +2.2σ
Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy)
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
