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Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
⛏️ Copper price down 2.3% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.0 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Copper (mining) — HG=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes.
⛏️ Platinum price down 5.7% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.0 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Platinum — PL=F daily settlement. Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major).
🛢️ LNG price down 8.3% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.2 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of LNG (exports) — NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy).
Milan hit by protests and police crackdown · 05:48 UTC — Milan Unrest: Protests, Police Crackdown, and the 'Lost Generation' Debate · Sources: theguardian.com
🇬🇧 UK's Miliband to lead diplomacy on Strait of Hormuz crisis · 23:48 UTC — Ed Miliband to Lead Diplomatic Push on Strait of Hormuz Crisis Amid Escalating Maritime Attacks · Sources: independent.co.uk
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🛢️ Crude oil price (production · BZ=F daily settlement) ▲ 114.63 +9.7% · +3.1σ
🌾 Wheat price (exports · ZW=F daily settlement) ▼ 626.75 -7.1% · -2.9σ
🌾 Soybeans price (exports · ZS=F daily settlement) ▼ 1256.25 -3.3% · -2.3σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 58% (major), United States (USA) 28% (noteworthy)
☕ Coffee price (arabica · KC=F daily settlement) ▲ 312.45 +7.8% · +2.2σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 45% (major)
🛢️ LNG price (exports · NG=F daily settlement, US Henry Hub proxy) ▼ 2.73 -8.3% · -2.2σ
Concentrated producers: United States (USA) 26% (noteworthy)
⛏️ Copper price (mining · HG=F daily settlement) ▼ 6.46 -2.3% · -2.0σ
⛏️ Copper price (smelting/refining · HG=F daily settlement) ▼ 6.46 -2.3% · -2.0σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 48% (major)
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1570.8 -5.7% · -2.0σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Russia hits Ukraine with missiles, drones after agreeing to peace talks [Law and Order] · apnews.com · also: wfmz.com, wiadomosci.onet.pl
🇮🇱 Israel — US and Israel Prepare New Strike Plans on Iran [International Relations] · dw.com · also: royanews.tv, newsru.co.il
🇭🇹 Haiti — El Salvador's president threatens Haitian gangs over military hostages [Law and Order] · bbc.co.uk · also: lefigaro.fr, listindiario.com
🇳🇪 Niger — Austrian and Swiss women held captive for more than a year in Niger freed in Libya [Law and Order] · bbc.co.uk · also: bild.de, elmundo.es
🇸🇻 El Salvador — El Salvador's president threatens Haitian gangs over military hostages [Law and Order] · bbc.co.uk · also: lefigaro.fr, listindiario.com
🇷🇺 Russia — Russia Drones Are Already Killing People Within EU Territory [Law and Order] · insurancejournal.com · also: unian.ua, news.cnyes.com
🇦🇲 Armenia — Armenia faces 'apocalyptic' economic consequences if it leaves EAEU, opposition MP warns [Economic Resilience] · azernews.az · also: news.am, arminfo.info
🇧🇩 Bangladesh — Who was Sweety Akhtar, mother of 9-year-old executed by Saudi Arabia over adultery? [Law and Order] · indiatoday.in
Upcoming events to watch - Africa
Mid-term assessments: whether events in the next 60 to 90 days are likely to worsen or improve each country's position, and what is driving the call. Countries with no expected change are left out.
Africa
Potentially deteriorating
🇩🇿 Algeria Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇦🇴 Angola Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇧🇯 Benin Degrades — baseline Weak
🇧🇼 Botswana Degrades — baseline Stable
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso Degrades — baseline Unstable
The jihadist insurgency is expected to escalate further, leading to more violence and displacement.
Extended military rule may result in governance issues and public dissatisfaction.
Deepening ties with Russia could provoke responses from Western nations, complicating foreign relations.
The worsening humanitarian crisis and regional isolation will exacerbate social tensions and hinder recovery efforts.
🇧🇮 Burundi Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇨🇲 Cameroon Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇨🇻 Cape Verde Degrades — baseline Stable
🇨🇫 Central African Republic Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇹🇩 Chad Degrades — baseline Unstable
The proposed constitutional changes in October 2025 are likely to be met with significant opposition and could incite widespread protests, further destabilizing the political landscape.
The suppression of political opposition, including the imprisonment of key leaders, is a clear sign of authoritarian governance that may lead to civil unrest and a push for democratic reforms.
Cross-border security threats from Sudan and the resulting refugee influx will strain Chad's already limited resources and could exacerbate existing tensions.
Ongoing internal insurgency and violence, particularly in the southern and eastern regions, will continue to pose serious challenges to security and governance, leading to a further decline in stability.
🇰🇲 Comoros Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇩🇯 Djibouti Degrades — baseline Weak
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea Degrades — baseline Unstable
Succession Tensions: The potential for conflict during the power transition from Obiang to Teodorín could lead to significant political instability.
Economic Decline: As oil production continues to decline, the resulting economic strain could fuel public discontent and challenge the regime's authority.
Russian Security Presence: While intended to bolster security, the reliance on foreign military support may signal weakness and provoke further unrest.
International Isolation: Increasing diplomatic isolation and scrutiny could undermine the regime's stability and provoke internal dissent
🇪🇷 Eritrea Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇸🇿 Eswatini Degrades — baseline Weak
🇪🇹 Ethiopia Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇬🇦 Gabon Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇬🇭 Ghana Degrades — baseline Weak
Electoral Tensions: The upcoming 2024 presidential election is likely to escalate political tensions, with the potential for violence and disputes over results, reminiscent of past electoral challenges.
Economic Pressures: The new administration's reform agenda post-2025 may lead to social unrest due to differing impacts on various groups, despite Ghana's strong democratic history.
Regional Security Issues: Instability in neighboring countries poses a risk of spillover effects, particularly in areas with existing ethnic or political tensions.
Policy Uncertainty: The approach to governance and economic management after the 2024 elections could lead to uncertainty and dissatisfaction among the populace. These factors suggest a potential decline in stability if not managed carefully.
🇬🇳 Guinea Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast Degrades — baseline Weak
🇰🇪 Kenya Degrades — baseline Weak
🇱🇸 Lesotho Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇱🇷 Liberia Degrades — baseline Unstable
Leadership Crisis in the House of Representatives: This ongoing crisis threatens the stability of governance and could lead to legislative gridlock, undermining effective governance.
Establishment of a War Crimes Court: While this could improve the rule of law, it may also provoke political backlash and social unrest, particularly if perceived as targeting specific groups.
2029 Presidential and Legislative Elections: The strengthening of opposition parties may lead to heightened political tensions as the elections approach, especially if there are allegations of unfair practices.
Drug Seizures and National Security Alerts: Increasing drug-related issues could strain law enforcement resources and heighten security concerns, impacting public safety and confidence in governance
🇲🇬 Madagascar Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇲🇼 Malawi Degrades — baseline Weak
🇲🇱 Mali Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇲🇷 Mauritania Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇲🇺 Mauritius Degrades — baseline Stable
🇲🇦 Morocco Degrades — baseline Weak
🇲🇿 Mozambique Degrades — baseline Weak
🇳🇦 Namibia Degrades — baseline Stable
The leadership transition to Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as Namibia's first female president could be a double-edged sword; while it represents progress, any missteps during the transition could lead to instability.
Legal challenges from opposition parties regarding the 2024 election results may stir political tensions, even if they are ultimately resolved peacefully.
Regional and local authority elections in 2025 will test SWAPO's grip on power, and any significant losses could embolden opposition and create governance challenges.
Economic and social pressures, particularly high unemployment and income inequality, are likely to escalate public dissatisfaction and challenge the government's stability if not addressed effectively.
🇳🇪 Niger Degrades — baseline Weak
🇳🇬 Nigeria Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo Degrades — baseline Weak
🇷🇼 Rwanda Degrades — baseline Weak
🇸🇳 Senegal Degrades — baseline Stable
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone Degrades — baseline Weak
🇸🇴 Somalia Degrades — baseline Unstable
🇿🇦 South Africa Degrades — baseline Weak
Tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU): Conflicts among coalition partners over key legislation could lead to governance issues and weakened political cohesion.
Economic challenges from the national budget and US tariffs: Potential economic strain from budgetary conflicts and unfavorable trade conditions may trigger political unrest.
International scrutiny from the G20 Summit: While hosting the G20 could enhance South Africa's global standing, it also risks exposing internal issues to a wider audience, possibly leading to embarrassment or loss of credibility.
Regional instability and domestic discontent: Ongoing regional conflicts and high unemployment may exacerbate societal tensions, increasing the likelihood of protests and further instability
🇸🇸 South Sudan Degrades — baseline Critically Unstable
🇸🇩 Sudan Degrades — baseline Unstable
The ongoing civil war is expected to escalate further, leading to more civilian casualties and displacement, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
The RSF's territorial advances may provoke stronger military responses, increasing conflict intensity.
Failed peace efforts and the uncertainty surrounding new proposals will likely prolong instability and suffering.
The UN sanctions vote could either tighten or loosen international control over the conflict, but the overall effect will be minimal in the face of internal chaos.
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe Degrades — baseline Stable
🇹🇿 Tanzania Degrades — baseline Stable
🇬🇲 The Gambia Degrades — baseline Weak
🇹🇬 Togo Degrades — baseline Unstable
The constitutional overhaul planned for March 2024 is likely to provoke significant backlash, as it undermines democratic processes and could lead to widespread protests against perceived authoritarianism.
The ongoing jihadist insurgency poses a serious security threat that could escalate, particularly if the government is seen as unable to manage the situation effectively.
The domestic opposition movements are gaining momentum, and their demands for political reform could lead to heightened tensions and civil unrest.
Geopolitical realignment with potentially hostile foreign influences may alienate Togo from traditional allies, further complicating its political landscape. These factors indicate a convergence of internal and external pressures that could severely impact Togo's stability in the near future.
🇺🇬 Uganda Degrades — baseline Weak
🇪🇭 Western Sahara Degrades — baseline Weak
The renewal of the MINURSO mandate and affirmation of Morocco's Autonomy Plan may provide a temporary framework for dialogue, but without genuine commitment from both sides, this could lead to further frustration and conflict.
Intensified mediation efforts by the UN envoy could offer hope for resolution, but past experiences suggest that without strong backing from major powers, these efforts may falter.
Mixed signals from the U.S. and Europe regarding their positions on Western Sahara could embolden hardline stances from both Morocco and the Polisario Front.
The ongoing diplomatic deadlock and lack of progress toward a political solution are likely to exacerbate tensions and lead to increased instability in the region.
🇿🇲 Zambia Degrades — baseline Weak
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe Degrades — baseline Unstable
Upcoming events section for PRO readers only. Try PRO for a week free here.
Africa: stability and news
Countries moving since their last assessment, then the day's news by country
More unstable: 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
More stable: none this period
Unchanged: 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania
News by country
🇩🇿 Algeria Algeria and Niger signed a new military cooperation agreement, deepening defense ties with the Sahel neighbor and signaling a shift toward stronger regional security collaboration [RT]. This move reflects Algiers’ effort to rebuild relations with its Sahel partners and could bolster its strategic stability in the region. rt-english.com
🇧🇯 Benin The Afreximbank forum opened in Cotonou on 21 October to promote the sale of the Glo‑Djigbé industrial zone and a 625 MW power plan to investors, signaling a push for economic development in Benin [riotimesonline.com]. riotimesonline.com
🇧🇼 Botswana Comparisons of bank account fees and property prices between South Africa and Botswana were highlighted, showing differences in monthly costs and housing markets in the region [thesouthafrican.com]. thesouthafrican.com
🇨🇲 Cameroon Ten years after the 2016 derailment of a Cameroon National Railway intercity train that killed dozens, victims and families are still waiting for compensation and accountability, fueling public frustration over the government's handling of the disaster [france24.com]. The prolonged lack of justice has sparked renewed calls for transparency and may exacerbate social tensions in the country. france24.com
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo The Ebola outbreak that began in the DRC earlier this year has spread westward, with Nigeria reporting its first case in a decade and the death toll in the DRC exceeding 4,600, raising concerns about public health stability in the region [sbs.com.au][tass.com]. The United States has tightened travel restrictions, requiring air passengers to declare they have not visited the DRC in the past 21 days as part of Ebola control measures [indiatoday.intoday.in]. A parliamentary motion of no confidence is being prepared against the DRC’s agriculture minister over a disputed US$57 million African Development Bank loan, indicating political tension within the government [riotimesonline.com]. sbs.com.au indiatoday.in
🇪🇹 Ethiopia Ethiopia is set to end its default on a US$1 billion Eurobond when a bond swap closes in December, according to the central bank governor, which could ease external financing pressures [riotimesonline.com]. The Ethiopian ambassador in Islamabad hosted the rector of COMSATS University for a traditional coffee ceremony, a routine diplomatic engagement with no immediate impact on domestic stability [app.com.pk]. riotimesonline.com app.com.pk
🇬🇭 Ghana A review of 45 studies found that vegetables grown near illegal gold‑mining sites in Ghana contain toxic metal levels above safety thresholds, raising public health concerns. The contamination highlights ongoing challenges in regulating illegal mining (galamsey) and its impact on food safety. [riotimesonline.com] riotimesonline.com
🇰🇪 Kenya Kenya’s first confirmed Ebola case may have intersected with Nigeria’s patient at Entebbe International Airport on 3 October, raising public health concerns about cross‑border transmission [BBC]. At the same time, Nigeria’s billionaire Aliko Dangote acquired a roughly 25 % stake in Kenya Pipeline Company and announced a $1.5 billion expansion of the country’s fuel distribution network, signalling significant foreign investment in Kenya’s energy infrastructure [RT]. bbc.co.uk abcnews.com
🇲🇼 Malawi Malawi’s government has refused to confirm whether public funds covered five private trips President Peter Mutharika made to South Africa, raising concerns about transparency and public accountability [mg.co.za]. At the same time, analysts are discussing how Malawi, together with Zimbabwe and Zambia, could leverage COMESA and regional trade corridors to develop a new industrial base, suggesting a focus on economic diversification rather than immediate political turmoil [thezimbabwemail.com]. mg.co.za thezimbabwemail.com
🇲🇺 Mauritius MauBank reported a 30% rise in pretax profit to US$25 million for the year ending 30 June 2026, though net profit grew only 6% due to higher taxes, indicating solid banking sector performance but limited impact on broader stability [riotimesonline.com]. riotimesonline.com
🇲🇦 Morocco El Al has temporarily cancelled its flights to Marrakech, joining other Israeli carriers in suspending service to the Moroccan city, which could affect tourism flows and related revenues [en.globes.co.il]. Russian diesel shipments to Morocco have resumed after a brief halt, restoring an important fuel supply source for the country’s energy market [pravdareport.com]. en.globes.co.il
🇲🇿 Mozambique Mozambique marked the 40th anniversary of former President Samora Machel’s death in a plane crash, using the occasion to reflect on the nation’s independence legacy rather than reporting any immediate security or political developments. [mg.co.za] mg.co.za
🇳🇦 Namibia Russia’s Baltic Fleet vessel Perekop completed an unofficial visit to Namibia, with cadets from the Admiral Ushakov Baltic Naval Institute finishing navigation training aboard the ship, underscoring ongoing military‑diplomatic engagement with Russia [tass.com].
🇳🇪 Niger Algeria and Niger signed a new military cooperation agreement, deepening defence ties between Algiers and its Sahel neighbour amid regional security concerns [RT]. Two foreign aid workers—a Swiss and an Austrian—were released after more than a year in captivity, a development that could ease diplomatic pressure on Niger but also highlights ongoing instability in the country [ABC News][BBC]. rt-english.com abcnews.com
🇳🇬 Nigeria Nigeria confirmed its first Ebola case in a decade, joining Kenya as the disease spreads westward and prompting WHO warnings of a “complex” outbreak across the continent [JapanTimes]; officials said the Nigerian patient and Kenya’s case may have crossed paths at Entebbe International Airport on 3 October, raising concerns about cross‑border transmission [BBC]. Despite the health scare, the country’s tech sector showed resilience, with Nigerian startups reclaiming the top spot in Africa as venture funding surged to $635 million in 2026, led by logistics firms [VentureBurn]. bbc.co.uk japantimes.co.jp
🇷🇼 Rwanda Lewis Hamilton expressed enthusiasm for Formula One’s return to Africa but voiced concerns about the selection of Rwanda as a venue for the race [Manila Times]. manilatimes.net
🇸🇴 Somalia UN officials warned that up to 874,000 people could be displaced in Somalia over the next three months, prompting the International Organization for Migration to work with Somali authorities on early‑warning systems to mitigate the humanitarian impact [sabcnews.com]. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state last year has created diplomatic tensions and internal political pressures that could affect Somalia’s territorial integrity and regional stability [csmonitor.com]. sabcnews.com csmonitor.com
🇿🇦 South Africa South Africa’s central bank said it is working to keep inflation under control as fuel shortages and depleted reserves heighten economic vulnerability, underscoring pressure on the country’s financial stability [SABC News]. A mob of about 50 people beat a foreign national to death in Durban, reflecting a surge in anti‑migrant violence that threatens social cohesion [BBC]. New, tighter checks on foreign‑registered vehicles travelling between South Africa and Zimbabwe were introduced, adding friction to cross‑border movement and trade [TheSouthAfrican.com]. mg.co.za thesouthafrican.com
🇸🇩 Sudan Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces deliberately attacked at least 43 hospitals during the siege of El‑Fasher, a pattern the UN human‑rights chief says could constitute war crimes [BBC]. The targeting of medical facilities underscores a deepening humanitarian crisis that threatens the country’s stability [Times of India]. timesofindia.indiatimes.com bbc.co.uk
🇹🇿 Tanzania Orca Energy Group has filed an appeal against Tanzania’s Fair Competition Commission decision that blocked its proposed transaction, indicating ongoing regulatory friction in the energy sector [manilatimes.net]. INTERPOL’s Operation Serengeti III, which targeted cybercrime networks, resulted in the arrest of 1,462 suspects and the disruption of 10,909 malicious groups, underscoring heightened security actions within the country [thehackernews.com]. Meanwhile, Indian mustard‑oil producer BL Agro announced a plan to invest about $738 million in Tanzania over the next decade, signaling continued foreign investment interest [thehindubusinessline.com]. manilatimes.net thehackernews.com
🇹🇬 Togo Togo launched an AI initiative to address the under‑representation of African languages in machine‑learning systems, highlighting a focus on technological development rather than immediate political or security concerns [theweek.com]. theweek.com
🇺🇬 Uganda Uganda’s Entebbe International Airport was identified as a possible point of contact between the first confirmed Ebola patients in Nigeria and Kenya, raising concerns about the country’s role in regional disease monitoring [bbc.co.uk]. The government’s drug regulator announced the recovery of about US$6.1 million in stolen medicines, signalling a crackdown on health‑sector corruption [riotimesonline.com]. bbc.co.uk abcnews.com
🇿🇲 Zambia Zambia’s government is pushing new mining projects to meet its copper production targets, warning that existing mines alone cannot deliver the needed output [diggers.news]. The state-owned ZDA secured a $122 million contract to develop the Kalulushi copper mine, while Japan pledged $6.3 million to rebuild the national railway, both aimed at bolstering the mining sector’s logistics and capacity [daily-mail.co.zm][diggers.news]. In parallel, President Hakainde Hichilema re‑appointed his presidential advisors, signalling continuity in his administration’s policy direction [diggers.news]. daily-mail.co.zm diggers.news
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe Tighter customs checks on foreign‑registered vehicles travelling between South Africa and Zimbabwe were introduced by ZIMRA, potentially slowing cross‑border traffic and trade flows. Meanwhile, the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange saw a 0.69% gain on October 22, with Caledonia Mining surging 13.2%, indicating continued activity in the capital markets despite broader economic challenges. [theSouthAfrican.com] [theZimbabweMail.com] thesouthafrican.com manilatimes.net
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
