Decis SITREP, Oct 26 2026

GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.

Several big events this weekend worth noting were Lula’s very close re-election in Brazil and the Student List’s victory over Serbia’s Vučić who is close to Moscow. Students have also been the catalyst for widespread European protests which started in France but have spread across the continent.

Worth watching is Israel's election on Tuesday, although the outcome may be less consequential than expected, given that Eisenkot is also a security hawk although he has promised to reign in settler violence. Meanwhile this is the last week of campaigning before the US midterms which could transfer control of Congress to the US Democrats.

Critical alerts

Tripwire notifications from the weekend, since Friday's issue

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US claims 1.5 billion barrels exported via Hormuz amid Iran blockade · 20:03 UTC — US Claims 1.5 Billion Barrels of Oil Exported via Hormuz Amid Iranian Blockade · Source: AFP

🇮🇱 Israel arrests West Bank suspect over planned terror attack · 16:03 UTC — Palestinian Suspect Apprehended in West Bank for Planned Terror Attack · Sources: timesofisrael.com

🇫🇷 France protests continue despite police crackdown · 15:18 UTC — France Protests Continue Despite Police Crackdown · Sources: dw.com

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine and Russia eye peace talks amid humanitarian ceasefire · 12:33 UTC — Ukraine and Russia Eye Peace Talks Amidst Steep Obstacles and Humanitarian Ceasefire · Sources: apnews.com

🇫🇷 Over 1,300 arrested in French protests before presidential elections · 12:03 UTC — Mass Protests in France Lead to Over 1,300 Arrests and Injuries Ahead of Presidential Elections · Sources: france24.com

🇮🇷🇱🇰🇺🇸 40 Iranian sailors seek medical care in Sri Lanka amid US blockade · 08:18 UTC — 40 Iranian Sailors Seek Medical Care in Sri Lanka Amid US Blockade · Sources: gulfnews.com

🇮🇱 Israel widens West Bank crackdown ahead of election · 07:18 UTC — Israel Widens West Bank Crackdown Ahead of Election · Sources: scmp.com

🇸🇦🇾🇪🇮🇱 Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles; Israel demolishes buildings in Hebron · 03:18 UTC — Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles, IDF demolishes buildings after Hebron terror attack · Sources: jpost.com

🇫🇷 Nearly 1,000 detained in French weekend mass protests · 00:18 UTC — France Sees Another Weekend of Mass Protests with Nearly 1,000 Detained · Sources: edition.cnn.com

🇯🇴 Terror attack on Jordan church kills 9, wounds 40 · 20:48 UTC — Deadly Terror Attack on Jordan Church Leaves 9 Dead, 40 Wounded · Sources: apnews.com

🇺🇦 Ukraine restores Starlink access amid ceasefire deal · 19:18 UTC — Ukraine Restores Starlink Access Amid Diplomatic Push and Ceasefire Deal · Sources: france24.com

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Houthis strike Saudi oil facilities; Saudi airstrikes kill 16 in Yemen · 18:18 UTC — Houthis Claim Strikes on Saudi Oil Facilities and Airports; Saudi Airstrikes Kill 16 in Yemen · Sources: hindustantimes.com

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine strikes Russian missile plant and Moscow airports · 16:18 UTC — Ukraine Strikes Russian Missile Plant and Moscow Airports as First Lady Secures Ceasefire · Sources: nypost.com

🇮🇹 Italy deploys soldiers ahead of protests after security crackdown · 15:18 UTC — Italy Deploys Soldiers Ahead of Protests Following Security Crackdown · Sources: straitstimes.com

🇫🇷 French police arrest 135 amid cost-of-living protests · 13:48 UTC — French Police Arrest 135 Amidst Cost of Living Protests and Security Crackdown · Source: AFP

🇺🇦🇷🇺🇺🇸 Ukraine strikes Russian plant · 11:33 UTC — Ukraine strikes Russian plant; Melania Trump secures Oleshky ceasefire · Sources: independent.co.uk

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran claims control of Strait of Hormuz after tanker mine strikes · 11:18 UTC — Iran Claims Control of Strait of Hormuz After Two Tankers Hit Mines; Warns US Against Entry · Sources: livemint.com

Mass protests and civil unrest hit six European nations · 08:33 UTC — Europe's Cost of Living Crisis Sparks Mass Protests and Civil Unrest Across Six Nations · Sources: independent.co.uk

🇮🇱 Israel launches multi-day Hebron operation after terror attack · 08:03 UTC — IDF Launches Multi-Day Hebron Operation Following Deadly Terror Attack · Sources: jpost.com

⛏️ Palladium price down 9.8% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.1 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Palladium — PA=F daily settlement. Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy).

🇺🇦🇷🇺 EU seeks expanded role in Ukraine-Russia peace talks · 04:48 UTC — EU seeks expanded role in Ukraine-Russia peace talks · Sources: euronews.com

🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦 Russian tankers head to US as peace talks resume · 01:48 UTC — Russian Tankers Head to US as Peace Talks Resume in Ukraine War · Sources: theguardian.com

🇺🇸 Melania Trump brokers ceasefire deal in Oleshky · 14:03 UTC — Melania Trump Brokers Ceasefire Deal in Oleshky, White House Says · Sources: apnews.com

🇮🇱 Two Israeli soldiers killed in West Bank terror attack · 13:18 UTC — IDF Confirms Two Soldiers Killed in West Bank Terror Attack · Sources: jpost.com

🇫🇷 Suspected terror attack investigated in Paris suburb shooting · 12:18 UTC — Suspected Terror Attack Investigated in Paris Suburb Shooting · Sources: france24.com

🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸🇦🇪 Russia, Ukraine, US to hold peace talks in Abu Dhabi · 10:48 UTC — Russia, Ukraine, and US Plan Trilateral Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi for November · Source: AFP