GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Elections are taking place in Israel today and while exit polls and pundits may quickly point to a likely winner, formal results are not announced until November 4th.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇺🇦🇷🇺🇺🇸 Ukraine ceasefire begins in south amid renewed Russian attacks · 03:48 UTC — Melania Trump-Brokered Ceasefire Begins in Southern Ukraine Amid Renewed Russian Attacks · Sources: apnews.com
🇯🇴🇸🇾 Jordanian airstrikes kill five civilians in Syria · 21:18 UTC — Syria Reports Five Civilian Deaths in Jordanian Airstrikes · Source: AFP
🇸🇦🇹🇷🇵🇰🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan seek Iran talks to halt Houthi attacks · 20:33 UTC — Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan Seek Peace Talks with Iran to Halt Houthi Attacks · Sources: nypost.com
🇸🇾 Syria government struggles with clashes, blockades, ISIS threats · 12:33 UTC — Syria's Government Struggles to Maintain Control Amid Clashes, Blockades, and ISIS Threats · Sources: jpost.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1502.7 -9.3% · -3.1σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
🌾 Wheat price (exports · ZW=F daily settlement) ▼ 614.0 -7.9% · -2.5σ
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1022.5 -10.3% · -2.3σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Ethiopia Attack Kills Over 40 Christians [Law and Order] · aljazeera.com · also: gerente.com, milliyet.com.tr
🇱🇧 Lebanon — Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling hit multiple areas in southern Lebanon [International Relations] · en.abna24.com · also: aa.com.tr, elbalad.news
🇱🇧 Lebanon — Hezbollah readies for new regional war with funds from Iran, sources say [International Relations] · jpost.com · also: al-monitor.com
🇸🇩 Sudan — Mass outages in Sudan after RSF drones hit five power stations [Law and Order] · thehindu.com · also: thedailystar.net, freemalaysiatoday.com
🇮🇱 Israel — UN inquiry says Israel kept committing genocide in Gaza after truce [International Relations] · al-monitor.com · also: thebrief.news, abc.net.au
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Ethiopia attacks: More than 60 Orthodox Christians killed in Oromia [Law and Order] · bbc.co.uk
Upcoming events to watch
Mid-term assessments: whether events in the next 60 to 90 days are likely to worsen or improve each country's position, and what is driving the call. Countries with no expected change are left out.
Americas
Potentially deteriorating
🇦🇷 Argentina Degrades — baseline Unstable
The upcoming midterm elections in October 2025 could lead to a significant shift in congressional power dynamics, potentially hampering President Milei's ability to govern effectively.
Tensions surrounding IMF negotiations and debt payments may escalate, particularly if political disagreements surface during critical payment periods.
The ongoing political polarization is likely to intensify, especially if election outcomes are contested or lead to further divisions.
Failure to navigate the post-election legislative landscape could result in governance paralysis, exacerbating existing social and economic issues
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic Degrades — baseline Weak
Haiti Border Crisis & Migration Pressure: Increased migration from Haiti is likely to exacerbate existing social tensions and strain resources, potentially leading to unrest.
Internal Governance Challenges: Weak institutional checks on the executive branch may result in governance issues, risking political instability.
Security and Social Tensions: Rising crime rates and sporadic protests could undermine public confidence in the government’s ability to maintain order.
2028 Presidential Succession: The approaching end of Abinader's term may spark political maneuvering that could destabilize the current administration.
🇬🇩 Grenada Degrades — baseline Stable
General Election Timeline: As Grenada approaches its next general election, political tensions may rise, especially if the opposition gains significant momentum. The potential for divisive campaigning could destabilize the current political harmony.
Post-Hurricane Recovery: The effectiveness of recovery efforts from Hurricane Beryl will be crucial. If the government is perceived as failing to adequately address the aftermath, it could lead to dissatisfaction and unrest.
Social Issues: Ongoing concerns about corruption and discrimination may intensify, leading to social unrest and further political challenges. The government's handling of these issues will be under scrutiny, potentially affecting its support base. Overall, while Grenada is currently stable, these factors warrant close attention as they could shape the political environment in the coming years.
🇬🇾 Guyana Degrades — baseline Weak
Ongoing Venezuela Border Tensions: Increased military activities and incidents along the border with Venezuela could escalate tensions, impacting national security and political stability.
Constitutional Reform Uncertainty: The recent election results left the ruling party short of a two-thirds majority needed for constitutional amendments, which may hinder governance and exacerbate political polarization.
Civil Unrest: Recent riots in Georgetown indicate underlying social tensions that could resurface, particularly in response to government actions or social issues.
🇵🇪 Peru Degrades — baseline Weak
The April 2026 general elections are likely to be contentious, given the current political climate and public dissatisfaction with leadership.
Leadership instability, particularly with recent impeachments, could lead to a power vacuum and further governance issues.
The security crisis, especially in urban areas like Lima, may worsen if not adequately addressed, leading to increased public fear and dissatisfaction.
Institutional weaknesses and deep public distrust may hinder effective governance post-elections, perpetuating cycles of instability
Upcoming events section for PRO readers only. Try PRO for a week free here.
Americas: stability and news
Countries moving since their last assessment, then the day's news by country
More unstable: 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇻🇪 Venezuela
More stable: none this period
Unchanged: 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas
News by country
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting is being held in St John’s, Antigua and Barbuda, drawing regional attention to reparations issues ahead of the King’s Caribbean visit. The CARICOM Reparations Commission has highlighted the summit as a key moment for reparations discussions. [jamaica-gleaner.com] jamaica-gleaner.com
🇦🇷 Argentina Argentina’s oil output is accelerating, with new estimates suggesting the country could soon surpass Guyana as a leading South American petroleum producer, boosting export revenues but also raising expectations for further investment in the sector [kaieteurnewsonline.com]. At the same time, President Milei’s economic policies have delivered price stability yet pushed millions into poverty, intensifying social tension ahead of the upcoming elections [japantimes.co.jp]. Additionally, the market reacted negatively to domestic corporate news, as Telecom Argentina shares fell 7.4% amid broader economic uncertainty [gurufocus.com]. themarketonline.com.au riotimesonline.com
🇧🇷 Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re‑elected with 51.79% of the vote, a result that halted a regional swing toward right‑wing governments and was praised by environmentalists and Indigenous groups, though U.S. President Donald Trump and Bolsonaro’s camp claimed the vote was “rigged” without evidence [asiaone.com][thehindu.com]. The outcome triggered a sharp sell‑off in Brazil’s financial markets, with the Ibovespa plunging 13.88% and the real weakening sharply against the dollar, prompting a circuit‑breaker on the exchange [riotimesonline.com][riotimesonline.com]. asiaone.com news-medical.net
🇨🇦 Canada Canada’s trade negotiations with the United States intensified, with both sides resuming talks to ease Section 232 steel and auto tariffs ahead of the U.S. mid‑term elections, though analysts remain skeptical a deal will be reached before the vote [gurufocus.com; globalnews.ca]. At the same time, Canadian officials highlighted progress on a sovereign data‑hosting platform for public safety and defence, underscoring efforts to bolster domestic security infrastructure [suasnews.com]. A separate policy debate emerged as the government considered allowing dementia patients to give advance consent to euthanasia, reflecting ongoing domestic social‑policy discussions [reason.com]. thehindubusinessline.com gurufocus.com
🇨🇱 Chile Chile’s market slipped 1.6% to its lowest level since early June as the IPSA fell on a Brazil‑related sell‑off, dragging down major stocks such as Enel Américas【riotimesonline.com】. A tornado on 26 October ripped through Requínoa, destroying at least 20 homes and a school and prompting a red alert in central Chile【riotimesonline.com】. Meanwhile, Carabineros entered a school in a forceful operation that has drawn criticism for targeting minors and could heighten social tensions【wsws.org】. economictimes.indiatimes.com thehindubusinessline.com
🇨🇴 Colombia Colombia’s government moved to charge former state‑media chief Hollman Morris over a 2011 sexual‑assault allegation, with a hearing scheduled for 17 November, highlighting ongoing political‑legal tensions. The country also launched new dollar‑denominated sovereign bonds, signaling continued engagement with international capital markets despite ratings below top‑grade. A fatal bus crash that killed two musicians from a popular vallenato band added a tragic, but isolated, incident to the nation’s recent events. [riotimesonline.com] [riotimesonline.com] [riotimesonline.com] riotimesonline.com vladtv.com
🇨🇷 Costa Rica Foreign investors poured US$5.12 billion into Costa Rica’s economy in 2025, indicating continued external financial confidence in the country’s stability [riotimesonline.com]. riotimesonline.com
🇨🇺 Cuba Cuba’s aviation sector faces a severe disruption as ten airports, including Havana and Varadero, have run out of Jet A‑1 fuel and will remain without supply until November 2026, forcing airlines to curtail or reroute flights【riotimesonline.com】. Meanwhile, the United States is intensifying diplomatic pressure on Havana ahead of a UN General Assembly vote, with lawmakers urging the international community to scrutinize Cuba’s human‑rights record【sabcnews.com】. President Trump has also framed Cuba as a security threat, suggesting future naval visits could target the island once regional conflicts subside【washingtontimes.com】. riotimesonline.com sabcnews.com
🇪🇨 Ecuador Ecuador’s shrimp and imported salmon prices fell ahead of the China Fisheries and Seafood Exhibition in Qingdao, indicating a dip in seafood export revenues. [undercurrentnews.com] undercurrentnews.com
🇬🇾 Guyana Guyana’s internal security faced a minor shock as a 45‑year‑old Guyanese man wanted for a 2015 murder was deported from the United States by ICE, underscoring ongoing trans‑national criminal concerns【timesofindia.indiatimes.com】. A tragic traffic collision on the Soesdyke–Linden Highway killed four people and injured three, while a house fire in Corentyne claimed another life, highlighting isolated public‑safety incidents but no broader unrest【pravdareport.com】. Meanwhile, King Charles III’s two‑day state visit and the launch of a women’s football league with a $2.5 million prize pool point to continued diplomatic engagement and social investment, suggesting no immediate threat to national stability【kaieteurnewsonline.com】. timesofindia.indiatimes.com kaieteurnewsonline.com
🇭🇹 Haiti El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele dispatched elite troops to Port‑au‑Prince after four Salvadoran soldiers went missing, intensifying confrontations with local gangs and raising concerns about civilian safety [english.elpais.com]. Analysts warned that the air and ground incursion could exacerbate humanitarian risks for the Haitian population. english.elpais.com
🇭🇳 Honduras President Nasry Asfura continues to dominate Honduras’s political landscape, maintaining control over the executive, Congress, the courts, the army, and most mayoral offices, while the opposition remains fragmented [riotimesonline.com]. This concentration of power suggests a stable, albeit centralized, governance structure for the country today. riotimesonline.com
🇯🇲 Jamaica International marathon swimmer Eva Buzo completed a 30‑kilometre swim along Jamaica’s north‑coast to support a local beach‑rights campaign, highlighting community activism on coastal issues [jamaica-gleaner.com]. Two former Jamaican prime ministers signed an open letter urging nations to back a UN vote condemning the U.S. embargo on Cuba, reflecting Jamaica’s continued diplomatic engagement in regional politics [riotimesonline.com]. jamaica-gleaner.com riotimesonline.com
🇲🇽 Mexico A truckers’ strike that began on 26 October spread across 19 states, disrupting major highways and threatening the flow of U.S.‑Mexico trade worth about $1.8 billion a day【riotimesonline.com】. At the same time, U.S. authorities charged 13 people in a scheme smuggling stolen cars across the El Paso border to supply Mexican cartels, highlighting ongoing organized‑crime pressures on the border【foxnews.com】. The reopening of a border crossing for cattle under tighter health checks shows cooperation to contain a livestock disease but also underscores the need for stricter controls at the frontier【koat.com】. foxnews.com thehindubusinessline.com
🇵🇦 Panama Russia warned that ships carrying weapons could be targeted as military vessels, a statement relayed by Panama after the Russian ambassador issued the warning on 23 October, raising concerns about potential security implications for the country [riotimesonline.com]. riotimesonline.com
🇵🇪 Peru Peru extended the state of emergency in Lima and Callao for 60 days, deploying police and soldiers to maintain order amid ongoing unrest [riotimesonline.com]. The government also adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism, signaling a diplomatic shift but not directly linked to internal stability [jns.org]. Cementos Pacasmayo reported a 14.2% rise in sales volumes for Q3, indicating strong corporate performance despite the broader security concerns [gurufocus.com]. gurufocus.com riotimesonline.com
🇸🇷 Suriname The Saamaka tribe in Suriname is undertaking mapping and documentation projects to protect the Amazon rainforest, reflecting community-led environmental initiatives. [winnipegfreepress.com] winnipegfreepress.com
🇺🇸 United States Of America U.S. lawmakers sent letters to major banks, ports and fuel distributors warning them of investigations into illegal Russian diesel imports, signaling heightened enforcement pressure on financial and energy sectors [Business‑Standard]. President Trump intensified rhetoric against Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El‑Sayed, labeling him a “jihadist,” which drew criticism from Arab‑American groups and highlighted rising political and ethnic tensions ahead of the midterms [Times of India; WSWS]. Meanwhile, a White House adviser said a U.S.–Canada tariff agreement was “very close,” indicating progress on trade policy as election season intensifies [Times of India]. israelnationalnews.com business-standard.com
🇺🇾 Uruguay Uruguay’s president, Luis Lacalle Pou, publicly congratulated Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula on his election victory, signaling support for the neighboring country’s democratic transition [riotimesonline.com]. riotimesonline.com
🇻🇪 Venezuela Opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela after a year in exile, drawing large crowds at a Barquisimeto shrine and signalling a new phase of political activity [NBC News][BBC][Catholic News Agency]. Her surprise arrival was coordinated with U.S. officials, who told the interim authorities to allow her return, and she said she is ready to meet the interim president [CBS News][Washington Times][RTE]. Meanwhile, oil workers have begun protest strikes, adding to a wave of labor unrest across the country [WSWS]. cbsnews.com japantimes.co.jp
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
