GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇺🇸 Oleshky ceasefire holds for second day · 08:48 UTC — US-Brokered Ceasefire Holds in Occupied Oleshky for Second Day · Source: AFP
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Gulf states negotiate peace deal to avert US-Iran war · 08:18 UTC — Gulf States Negotiate Peace Deal to Avert US-Iran War Renewal · Sources: theguardian.com
🇷🇸🇮🇱 Serbian police kill assailant in attack on Israeli embassy · 07:03 UTC — Serbian Police Kill Assailant in Terror Attack at Israeli Embassy in Belgrade · Sources: apnews.com
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia ceasefire extended across Kherson region · 20:50 UTC — Ceasefire extended across Ukraine's Kherson region, officials say · Sources: bbc.co.uk
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 Melania Trump announces Ukraine-Russia ceasefire has commenced · 18:18 UTC — Melania Trump Announces Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Has Commenced · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇨🇴🇻🇪 Bomb blast near Colombia-Venezuela border injures four police · 18:18 UTC — Bomb Blast Near Colombia-Venezuela Border Injures 4 Police Officers Amid Security Crackdown · Sources: apnews.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Houthi missiles intercepted over Riyadh amid strikes in Yemen · 16:18 UTC — Houthi Missiles Intercepted Over Riyadh; Conflicting Claims on Casualties and Strikes in Yemen and Strait of Hormuz · Sources: apnews.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia offers $1 billion to Houthis in Iran-brokered ceasefire · 14:03 UTC — Report: Saudi Arabia Offers $1 Billion to Houthis in Iran-Brokered Ceasefire Deal · Sources: livemint.com
🇮🇷🇰🇷 Iran threatens legal action against South Korean shipping company · 13:48 UTC — Iran Threatens Legal Action Against South Korean Shipping Company Sinokor in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: jpost.com
🇯🇴🇸🇾 Jordan launches airstrikes in Syria after church attack · 11:18 UTC — Jordan launches airstrikes in Syria after church attack · Sources: france24.com
🇷🇺 Russia launches 280 drones as Oleshky ceasefire begins · 09:48 UTC — Russia launches 280 drones as Oleshky ceasefire begins · Sources: theguardian.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1539.3 -9.0% · -3.0σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
🌾 Wheat price (exports · ZW=F daily settlement) ▼ 610.5 -8.3% · -2.6σ
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 1027.0 -10.4% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇷🇸 Serbia — Proud Novak Djokovic praises students after mass movement topples Serbian government [Political Equilibrium] · apnews.com · also: wfmz.com, huffingtonpost.es
🇱🇧 Lebanon — Israeli artillery strikes towns in southern Lebanon [Law and Order] · en.abna24.com · also: aa.com.tr, lebanon24.com
🇵🇭 Philippines — Peso hits historic low at P64:$1 [Economic Resilience] · manilatimes.net · also: gmanetwork.com, philstar.com
🇳🇬 Nigeria — Nigeria gunmen attack kills 62, wounds 52 and displaces thousands in Taraba state [Law and Order] · apnews.com · also: indiatoday.in, freedomradionig.com
🇳🇬 Nigeria — 62 killed, 52 injured after gunmen open fire on village in Nigeria [Law and Order] · aljazeera.com · also: kibrisgazetesi.com, thebrief.news
🇬🇦 Gabon — One dead, four others missing in Gabon oil rig disaster [Environmental Hazards] · independent.co.uk · also: macaubusiness.com, dailystar.co.uk
🇪🇬 Egypt — Egyptian Court Orders Closure of News Site Amid Crackdown Warnings [Democratic Integrity] · commstrader.com
🇧🇷 Brazil — Flavio Bolsonaro and family to receive US visas after leaving Brazil, State Department says [Democratic Integrity] · apnews.com · also: sapo.pt, noticiasaominuto.com.br
Upcoming events to watch
Mid-term assessments: whether events in the next 60 to 90 days are likely to worsen or improve each country's position, and what is driving the call. Countries with no expected change are left out.
Europe
🇧🇾 Belarus Degrades — baseline Unstable
Zapad 2025 Military Exercises: Despite plans to downsize and relocate these exercises, the mere presence of Russian troops and military activities in Belarus is likely to provoke local and international criticism, potentially leading to unrest.
Outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War: A decisive Ukrainian victory could inspire opposition movements within Belarus, challenging the current regime's authority and potentially leading to instability.
Diplomatic Shifts and Sanctions: Any attempts at diplomatic engagement that do not result in substantial changes to the political landscape may be viewed as insufficient, leading to further discontent among the populace.
🇭🇷 Croatia Degrades — baseline Stable
Internal Coalition Tensions: The ongoing conflicts within the ruling coalition, particularly between the HDZ and the Homeland Movement, are likely to escalate, leading to governance challenges and potential crises.
Corruption Scandals: As corruption scandals continue to surface, public trust in the government is expected to erode further, which could incite protests or calls for political reform.
Electoral Dynamics: The possibility of the ruling coalition losing its majority could lead to significant political maneuvering, instability, and even calls for new elections.
Symbolic Legislative Actions: While largely symbolic, the resolution supporting a separate electoral unit for Bosnian Croats may exacerbate ethnic tensions and provoke political discord.
🇨🇾 Cyprus Degrades — baseline Weak
The upcoming elections in Northern Cyprus could lead to a shift in political dynamics, but the potential for significant change in the status quo remains limited.
The renewal of the UN Peacekeeping Force's mandate may face challenges, affecting the stability provided by international presence.
Cyprus's EU Presidency could exacerbate domestic political pressures, particularly if issues like migrant treatment and citizenship rights are mishandled.
Evolving regional geopolitics may create new tensions, particularly if they affect the balance of power or influence on the island.
🇮🇹 Italy Degrades — baseline Stable
The Judicial Reform Referendum has the potential to polarize the electorate and create significant political divisions, especially if the reforms are seen as undermining judicial independence.
Ongoing strikes and social unrest are likely to escalate, particularly if the issues at stake are not addressed satisfactorily, leading to increased dissatisfaction with the government.
Coalition tensions over constitutional reforms and regional autonomy could lead to governance challenges, especially if disagreements become public and contentious.
The combination of these factors may result in a loss of parliamentary support for the Prime Minister, threatening her position and the stability of the government.
🇱🇮 Liechtenstein Degrades — baseline Stable
Recent Government Transition: While coalition changes are normal, the new government's ability to navigate differing ideologies could be tested, potentially leading to instability.
Growing Opposition Influence: The possibility of a strong opposition coalition poses a risk to the current government's legislative agenda and overall stability.
Economic Headwinds: Forecasts of economic stagnation and potential contraction could lead to significant public dissatisfaction and political pressures.
EEA Membership and Geopolitical Exposure: Uncertainty surrounding the EEA could impact trade and economic relations, leading to further economic challenges
🇱🇺 Luxembourg Degrades — baseline Highly Stable
Cabinet reshuffle in December 2025: The potential for internal coalition tensions to surface during this reshuffle could destabilize the current government, especially if disagreements become public or if the reshuffle is contentious.
Electoral reform debates: While aimed at improving representation, these debates could lead to political fragmentation if not handled carefully, particularly if significant changes are proposed that not all parties support.
Transition to a new Grand Duke on October 3, 2025: Although typically a smooth process, any missteps or controversies surrounding the transition could raise questions about institutional stability. These events, particularly the cabinet reshuffle and electoral reforms, have the potential to create political instability, which could impact Luxembourg's overall stability.
🇺🇦 Ukraine Degrades — baseline Unstable
Ceasefire and Peace Negotiations: While negotiations may offer a path to reduced conflict, the potential for territorial concessions and dissatisfaction with the outcomes could lead to domestic unrest and political instability.
EU Accession and Financial Stability: Although EU accession talks may provide financial support, the conditions attached to such support could provoke political backlash and instability.
Domestic Political Pressure and Possible Elections: The prospect of early elections amid political strain could lead to further fragmentation of the political landscape.
Ongoing Military Situation: Any escalation or change in the military conflict's dynamics will have a direct and significant impact on Ukraine's stability.
MENA
Potentially deteriorating
🇧🇭 Bahrain Degrades — baseline Weak
Iran Conflict and Military Fallout: The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led to retaliatory attacks impacting Bahrain's critical infrastructure and military facilities, heightening security concerns.
Domestic Unrest and Sectarian Tensions: The assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has sparked protests in Bahrain, leading to clashes with security forces and a crackdown on dissent, which could exacerbate sectarian divisions.
Delayed Elections: The extension of the National Assembly's term and the postponement of parliamentary elections have raised concerns about the shrinking democratic space and increasing executive power, potentially leading to public discontent.
Economic Vulnerability: Bahrain's economic challenges, highlighted by a downgrade in its credit rating and rising debt levels, could further destabilize the political landscape if economic conditions worsen.
🇪🇬 Egypt Degrades — baseline Unstable
The ongoing economic crisis, marked by high inflation and a rising cost of living, is likely to lead to increased public frustration and potential unrest.
Parliamentary elections in 2025 are expected to be contentious, with restricted political space and allegations of unfair practices, further undermining the political system's legitimacy.
Attempts to change presidential term limits could provoke significant public backlash and political instability.
Regional security issues, particularly conflicts in neighboring countries, may strain Egypt's resources and attention, impacting internal security and stability
🇱🇧 Lebanon Degrades — baseline Unstable
Israeli Airstrikes: Continued airstrikes targeting Hezbollah could provoke severe retaliatory responses and escalate into broader regional conflict, heightening insecurity.
Disarmament Plan for Hezbollah: The controversial disarmament plan is likely to deepen sectarian divides and provoke significant political backlash, potentially destabilizing the government.
UNIFIL's Mandate Extension: While the extension of UNIFIL's mandate may provide temporary security assurances, a drawdown could create power vacuums and embolden militant groups.
Parliamentary Elections: Elections could lead to intense political strife, especially if results are contested or if sectarian tensions are inflamed during the process.
Relations with Syria: Complications arising from Lebanon's relationship with Syria could lead to security concerns and political friction, especially if regional dynamics shift unexpectedly. Overall, these events suggest a trajectory towards increased instability, with the potential for significant internal conflict and external intervention.
🇾🇪 Yemen Degrades — baseline Critically Unstable
Upcoming events section for PRO readers only. Try PRO for a week free here.
Europe: stability and news
Countries moving since their last assessment, then the day's news by country
More unstable: 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
More stable: none this period
Unchanged: 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden
News by country
🇦🇹 Austria Infineon announced a €1.1 billion investment to build a high‑volume gallium‑nitride chip plant in Villach, boosting Austria’s high‑tech manufacturing sector [thenextweb.com]. thenextweb.com
🇧🇪 Belgium Belgium’s government is weighing the nationalisation of the country’s nuclear power stations, a move that could reshape the energy sector and affect economic stability [vrt.be]. Meanwhile, a feature on the CHS 24/7 helpline highlights rising personal anxiety and sleeplessness among citizens, underscoring growing mental‑health concerns in the population [thebulletin.be]. thebulletin.be vrt.be
🇭🇷 Croatia Croatia is rolling out new demographic policies aimed at reversing population decline, including housing support, childcare incentives and language scholarships for diaspora returnees, in an effort to bolster long‑term social stability [croatiaweek.com]. The government is also advancing a €237.5 million national children’s hospital in Zagreb and launching mobile clinics in rural eastern regions to improve healthcare access, signaling continued investment in public services [croatiaweek.com]. Additionally, a €9 million acquisition of the Croatian RPA firm Robotiq.ai by HCLTech highlights ongoing foreign investment in the country’s tech sector [analyticsindiamag.com]. theguardian.com croatiaweek.com
🇨🇾 Cyprus India’s shipping deputy minister met with Korean firms in Seoul to discuss investment, technology transfer and green‑shipping projects, signalling Cyprus’s interest in expanding its maritime sector [thehindubusinessline.com]. Greece, backed by Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE, condemned the Turkey‑Libya maritime agreement that Greece says threatens regional stability and Cyprus’s maritime claims [jpost.com]. In Nicosia, the leaders of the Greek‑Cypriot and Turkish‑Cypriot communities exchanged olive oil from trees planted in 2009 as a symbolic gesture of peace and reunification efforts [en.protothema.gr]. thehindubusinessline.com jpost.com
🇨🇿 Czech Republic President Asif Ali Zardari said he was confident that Pakistan and the Czech Republic would continue strengthening their longstanding, cordial relations [app.com.pk]. app.com.pk
🇩🇰 Denmark Denmark’s government faced criticism from its Nordic neighbours after Finland and Norway called for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move that Denmark said undermined a unified European stance on Ukraine [RT]. At the same time, Danish banks were implicated in a cross‑border money‑laundering scheme involving accounts in Ireland and Denmark that were used to funnel illicit funds for a Greek bakery chain, raising concerns about financial oversight [keeptalkinggreece.com]. Meanwhile, the activation of CoreWeave’s AI computing capacity in Denmark signals growing tech investment but does not appear to affect political stability directly [GuruFocus]. keeptalkinggreece.com rt-english.com
🇫🇮 Finland Finland’s consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in five months as worries about unemployment and inflation rose, reflecting growing domestic economic strain【rttnews.com】. At the same time, Finnish leaders engaged in a rare phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the Ukraine war, a move that drew skepticism from Denmark and raised questions about coordination with Kyiv【thehindu.com】【azernews.az】. These developments highlight both internal economic pressures and external diplomatic tensions that could affect Finland’s stability【bbc.co.uk】. manilatimes.net news-medical.net
🇫🇷 France France’s Senate approved a “rioters‑pay” bill that would allow the state to seize up to €10,000 of welfare benefits from people convicted of rioting, with the lower house set to consider it next [riotimesonline.com]. At the same time, nationwide protests – including renewed Yellow Vest actions and student demonstrations over school funding – have continued to challenge public order, with analysts warning that the unrest is testing the government’s authority [crimethinc.com][thejournal.ie]. The government’s push to expand nuclear capabilities has also drawn criticism as a destabilising move on the global stage [wnd.com]. bbc.co.uk riotimesonline.com
🇩🇪 Germany Germany’s far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant electoral gains, prompting analysts to assess its implications for the country’s political landscape [Harvard Gazette]. A German court rejected a request to halt the trial of a former Ukrainian officer accused of sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines, underscoring ongoing legal scrutiny of the gas‑pipeline attacks and related security concerns [ABC News]. President Frank‑Walter Steinmeier began a five‑day state visit to China as Berlin seeks to manage trade tensions and preserve bilateral ties, a diplomatic effort aimed at stabilising economic relations [Azernews]. asiaone.com autoblog.com
🇬🇷 Greece Greece’s financial sector saw modest growth in September, with private‑sector credit expanding 6% year‑on‑year, while maritime firms TOP Ships and Navios Maritime Partners announced financing moves and cash distributions from Athens‑based operations, indicating ongoing corporate activity in the shipping hub [macropolis.gr][manilatimes.net]. The government also issued a red‑code weather alert for several regions as dangerous weather phenomena intensified, prompting heightened emergency preparedness [keeptalkinggreece.com]. Meanwhile, Athens condemned Libya’s eastern parliament’s maritime agreement with Turkey and secured backing from Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE, underscoring heightened regional diplomatic tensions that could affect national security [jpost.com]. manilatimes.net en.protothema.gr
🇭🇺 Hungary The United States is reportedly supporting former Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán as a “dream MAGA‑conservative” candidate for United Nations secretary‑general, reflecting heightened international attention on his far‑right politics. [truthout.org] truthout.org
🇮🇸 Iceland Iceland’s incoming budget is being framed as a “productivity revolution” that will prioritize business incentives, skills development and lower employment costs rather than accepting a managed decline, a stance the government says is essential for the country’s stability [flipboard.com]. cityam.com
🇮🇪 Ireland Ireland’s government is reshuffling its finances, closing a 103‑year‑old rainy‑day fund while considering a €1 billion boost to the Future Ireland Fund to support long‑term projects [thejournal.ie][rte.ie]. Political tension surfaced as a High Court judge prepares to rule on an Orangeman challenge to a Portadown march ban and Sinn Féin faced criticism from Fianna Fáil over “misinformation” on a triple‑lock pension reform bill [bbc.co.uk][rte.ie]. Security concerns were highlighted by the charging of a man for a murder in Finglas, a shooting in Ballymoney and reports that Irish bank accounts were used in a Greek money‑laundering scheme [bbc.co.uk][keeptalkinggreece.com]. bbc.co.uk thejournal.ie
🇮🇹 Italy Mass protests have intensified across Italy as the Meloni government tightens security measures and confronts supply shortages, rising food prices, and a housing crisis, prompting critics to label the new crackdown “myopic” [wsws.org][feeds.thelocal.com]. A general strike in the country threatens major travel disruptions, adding pressure on public services and the economy [foxnews.com]. Meanwhile, the finance ministry expects Italy’s sovereign rating to be confirmed by Standard & Poor’s despite external shocks such as the Middle East crisis, suggesting no immediate downgrade risk [ansa.it]. theguardian.com news-medical.net
🇱🇻 Latvia Latvia signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the UK and Ukraine to extend the Grain Verification Scheme, aiming to curb Russian grain theft and protect regional food security [rttnews.com]. This cooperation underscores Latvia’s active role in regional security measures, though it does not indicate any immediate domestic instability. rttnews.com
🇱🇮 Liechtenstein India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Liechtenstein’s hereditary Prince Alois to discuss expanding trade, investment and technology cooperation, including fast‑tracking a double‑taxation avoidance agreement [business‑standard.com]. business-standard.com thehindubusinessline.com
🇱🇹 Lithuania Payward’s planned acquisition of Lithuania’s Saldo Bank, aimed at expanding its EU banking licence and SEPA capabilities, signals continued foreign investment interest in the country’s financial sector [thefintechtimes.com]. thefintechtimes.com
🇲🇩 Moldova Moldova shut down more than 80 public services after a large‑scale cyberattack disrupted government operations, prompting the White House to launch a new cybersecurity pilot program in response [risky.biz]. At the same time, household gas tariffs jumped by over 80% as the country moved away from direct Russian gas contracts to costlier European intermediaries, sharply raising energy costs for consumers [pravdareport.com]. risky.biz
🇳🇱 Netherlands The Dutch government’s plan to replace some civil‑service jobs with artificial‑intelligence systems is moving forward as a pilot, sparking debate over public acceptance of the technology and its impact on the bureaucracy’s size【japantimes.co.jp】. At the same time, the coalition’s “war cabinet” is proceeding with social‑welfare cuts that have been shifted to the “polder” mechanism, drawing criticism from trade unions【wsws.org】. The Netherlands also withdrew from next year’s Eurovision Song Contest over sensitivities surrounding Israel’s participation, reflecting heightened political pressure on cultural policy【washingtontimes.com】【al-monitor.com】. manilatimes.net economictimes.indiatimes.com
🇳🇴 Norway Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre participated in a rare direct phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, alongside Finland’s leader, to discuss a possible Ukraine peace settlement, marking the first such European‑Russian dialogue in over a year [BBC]. The outreach was coordinated with Kyiv, according to Ukraine’s foreign minister, and Norway has said it does not intend to act as a mediator but supports a trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi [Economic Times]. These diplomatic moves have not indicated any immediate domestic instability in Norway. bubblear.com armstrongeconomics.com
🇵🇱 Poland Poland’s defence ties with the United States deepened as Lockheed Martin secured a $694 million hypersonic missile contract and the U.S. selected the country to host a Patriot missile service facility, bolstering Warsaw’s air‑defence capabilities [seekingalpha.com; notesfrompoland.com]. At the same time, a far‑right political leader was formally charged for confronting an abortion doctor and inciting anti‑Jewish hatred, while a witness alleged that President Andrzej Duda discussed profiting from a hotel where he had previously employed women, raising domestic political controversy [notesfrompoland.com]. seekingalpha.com jns.org
🇵🇹 Portugal Portugal’s police dismantled makeshift housing protest camps in Lisbon and Porto as authorities responded to a sharp rent surge that has pushed the average age of youth independence to nearly 29 years, highlighting growing social tension over housing affordability【pravdareport.com】. The government’s crackdown on the camps underscores concerns about public order amid the country’s broader economic pressures【pravdareport.com】. 9to5mac.com deccanchronicle.com
🇷🇴 Romania Romanian President Nicuşor Dan labeled a suspected Russian sabotage plot uncovered last month as a “grave violation” of NATO member security, underscoring heightened security concerns in the country [AP]. zfenglish.com winnipegfreepress.com
🇷🇺 Russia Moscow hosted the third Russia‑Africa Summit, with President Vladimir Putin meeting African leaders and discussing trade, energy and digital‑currency cooperation, underscoring Russia’s focus on expanding external partnerships amid Western sanctions [rt.com][tass.com]. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine observed a locally brokered ceasefire in the southern city of Kherson, a development that Russia highlighted as a diplomatic success [asiaone.com][japantimes.co.jp]. Domestic stability appeared unchallenged, with Russian officials dismissing Western attempts to isolate Moscow as a “caricature” of policy [tass.com]. rt-english.com diggers.news
🇷🇸 Serbia Serbian students’ democratic movement ousted long‑time leader Aleksandar Vučić and won a snap parliamentary election, ending more than a decade of his rule and prompting congratulations from EU leaders [heathercoxrichardson.substack.com][riotimesonline.com][rferl.org]. The new student‑led government now faces internal splits over EU pressure to adopt anti‑Russian sanctions, raising questions about its cohesion [pravdareport.com]. Meanwhile, a knife‑armed assailant attacked a guard at the Israeli embassy in Belgrade and was killed by police, highlighting lingering security concerns [abcnews.go.com][israelnationalnews.com]. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com thehindu.com
🇸🇰 Slovakia Slovakia has resumed diplomatic talks with Russia, with Prime Minister Robert Fico arguing that energy security and industrial jobs are more important to voters than alignment with Brussels, a move that could shift the country’s political balance [RT]. Meanwhile, Slovak cybersecurity firm ESET launched new AI‑driven security and anti‑scam tools for consumers and small offices, bolstering domestic digital protection but not directly affecting political stability [Manila Times]. rt-english.com manilatimes.net
🇸🇮 Slovenia Rising sea levels have reshaped parts of the northern Adriatic, turning former dry land into lagoon areas, a geological change noted by scientists [app.buzzsumo.com]. theguardian.com
🇪🇸 Spain Spain faced several domestic pressures that could affect stability. A train and general strike threatened major travel disruptions, while unemployment rose to 10.18% in the third quarter, underscoring economic strain [rttnews.com]. At the same time, Spanish prosecutors accused Iran of a 2023 assassination attempt on a former EU vice‑president, and the government’s deportation of African and Asian asylum seekers to Morocco sparked rights‑group criticism, adding political tension ahead of the November election [algemeiner.com][al‑monitor.com]. timesofindia.indiatimes.com zerohedge.com
🇨🇭 Switzerland Swiss businesses face mounting pressure as corporate insolvencies are projected to hit record levels in 2026 amid high energy costs and rising interest rates, while wages are only set to rise modestly by about 0.5% and house prices continue to climb, indicating mixed economic signals for stability [swissinfo.ch]. The European Commission’s proposal to turn Frontex into a deportation agency also involves Switzerland through its participation in the agency, adding a political dimension to its border‑security arrangements [swissinfo.ch]. Meanwhile, a new quantum‑safe security link between Geneva and Seoul was launched, highlighting Switzerland’s ongoing investment in advanced technology infrastructure [quantumcomputingreport.com]. timesofindia.indiatimes.com quantumcomputingreport.com
🇹🇷 Turkey Turkey’s parliament approved a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, deepening its security ties with fellow Muslim states amid regional rivalries [ABC News]. The deal comes as Greece, backed by Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE, condemned Turkey’s maritime agreement with Libya’s eastern parliament, heightening tensions in the eastern Mediterranean [The Jerusalem Post]. A tornado in Antalya killed four construction workers, underscoring domestic safety concerns [Winnipeg Free Press]. greeneuropeanjournal.eu indiatoday.in
🇺🇦 Ukraine Ukraine’s diplomatic outreach saw a localized cease‑fire in the war‑torn city of Oleshky, Kherson region, allowing humanitarian aid and civilian evacuations after mediation involving Melania Trump and Nordic leaders [Japan Times]; the truce appears to be holding despite ongoing fighting [AsiaOne]. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s cyber defenses were bolstered as the National Cybersecurity Association launched monitoring across 45 web domains, reflecting continued focus on internal security amid the conflict [Manila Times]. economictimes.indiatimes.com politico.eu
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Two men were charged under the UK’s national security legislation for a suspected Iran‑linked incident at RAF Fairford, a key military airbase, highlighting concerns over foreign intelligence activity on British soil [jpost.com][al-monitor.com]. The case involves a British national alleged to have assisted Iranian intelligence, underscoring heightened security vigilance amid broader regional tensions [uctoday.com][azernews.az]. manilatimes.net jpost.com
MENA: stability and news
Countries moving since their last assessment, then the day's news by country
More unstable: 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇪🇬 Egypt, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇶 Iraq, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇱🇧 Lebanon, 🇱🇾 Libya, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇸🇾 Syria, 🇹🇳 Tunisia, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇾🇪 Yemen
More stable: none this period
Unchanged: none this period
News by country
🇪🇬 Egypt Egypt’s courts ordered the shutdown of independent outlet Mada Masr and sentenced its editor‑in‑chief Lina Attalah to detention and a fine for operating without a licence, prompting condemnation from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch as a severe blow to press freedom【bbc.co.uk】【hrw.org】. The journalist was released hours later after a court order, but the closure underscores a widening crackdown on independent media in Cairo【manilatimes.net】【democracynow.org】. Meanwhile, Egypt announced steps to support Saudi Arabia after Houthi missile and drone attacks, signalling its willingness to intervene in regional security disputes【business-standard.com】. jns.org commstrader.com
🇮🇷 Iran Iran’s nuclear facilities remain unrepaired after the Israeli‑U.S. strikes, and the IAEA chief has urged Tehran to grant inspectors access to the damaged sites, underscoring ongoing diplomatic pressure on its nuclear program [thehindu.com][business-standard.com]. The United States has warned Gulf allies to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign against Iran and has disclosed that its war‑related spending on the conflict has topped $47 billion, reflecting heightened military readiness and financial strain that could affect regional stability [indiatoday.intoday.in][khaama.com][business-standard.com]. indiatoday.in thedailyblog.co.nz
🇮🇶 Iraq Iraqi authorities closed the al‑Shib border crossing with Iran to upgrade security and detection equipment, a move that reflects heightened tension over border control while still balancing trade needs [Reuters]. A court in Baghdad sentenced six French nationals to life imprisonment for Islamic State membership, underscoring ongoing security challenges from extremist groups [France 24]. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court struck down a decades‑old Ba’athist decree banning foreign ownership, a legal reform that could affect economic stability but signals a shift toward a more open investment climate [iraq‑businessnews.com]. en.abna24.com iraq-businessnews.com
🇮🇱 Israel Israel’s March 12 election produced no clear winner, with exit polls showing Netanyahu’s bloc at about 50 seats and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s camp at 51‑53 seats, leaving the country without a governing majority and raising the prospect of coalition talks or another vote [thehindu.com][cnbc.com]. Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted his Likud party is the largest and called for a “strong national right‑wing government,” while Eisenkot warned that voters have chosen change, underscoring political uncertainty [jns.org][middleeasteye.net]. Meanwhile, the United States announced the deployment of additional Patriot air‑defence systems to bolster Israel’s missile defenses, a move that reflects ongoing security concerns amid the domestic political deadlock [tass.com]. thehindu.com rnz.co.nz
🇯🇴 Jordan Jordan’s security forces launched airstrikes in southern Syria targeting Islamic State sites, killing more than 20 militants but also causing civilian casualties, including at least seven deaths, which prompted Syrian condemnation and a joint Jordan‑Syria security committee to investigate the strikes [Reuters][Al‑Monitor]. The attacks were framed as retaliation for a gunmen assault on a Greek Orthodox church in Amman that killed several worshippers, prompting a public rally of support for the Christian community and statements from the Patriarch that the perpetrators were a “minority of radicals” [JPost][MiddleEastEye]. In the same period, Jordan deepened regional ties, signing nine cooperation agreements with Iraq on trade, energy and security during a visit by Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi, signaling an effort to bolster stability through diplomatic outreach [JPost]. en.abna24.com economictimes.indiatimes.com
🇰🇼 Kuwait Kuwait’s defence leadership met with Pakistan’s naval officials, reaffirming a commitment to deepen bilateral naval cooperation, a move that underscores Kuwait’s focus on securing its maritime interests [app.com.pk]. At the same time, Kuwait is expected to support OPEC+ decisions to keep oil production targets unchanged, signalling continuity in its crucial oil revenue stream [argaam.com]. The country also contributed $2.5 million to the UN‑managed Afghanistan Humanitarian Fund, reflecting its engagement in regional stability efforts [khaama.com]. app.com.pk argaam.com
🇱🇧 Lebanon Southern Lebanese families are returning to harvest their fields despite ongoing Israeli aggression, displacement pressures and soaring rents in the capital, highlighting the strain on livelihoods [ukcolumn.org]. Israeli artillery struck the southern towns of al‑Mansouri, Majdal Zoun, Barashit and Kounine overnight, underscoring the escalation of cross‑border hostilities [en.abna24.com]. ukcolumn.org en.abna24.com
🇱🇾 Libya Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime boundaries agreement with Turkey, a deal first negotiated in 2019, prompting swift condemnation from Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which see the pact as undermining regional stability and their own maritime claims [jpost.com]. jpost.com
🇴🇲 Oman Oman’s foreign minister urged Gulf states, Iraq and Iran to form a single security pact, warning that U.S. antagonism toward Iran is imposing “a terrible cost” on regional stability【middleeasteye.net】. At the same time, domestic economic activity showed signs of strength, with Oman Re reporting a 9‑month revenue rise to OMR 41.1 million and ABRAJ adding OMR 100 million to its backlog after deploying a new Wave III rig【reinsurancene.ws】【english.mubasher.info】. english.mubasher.info middleeasteye.net
🇶🇦 Qatar Qatar’s government continued to project stability by hosting the Socceroos for Asian‑Cup friendlies and by engaging in high‑level economic outreach, including talks on expanding Qatari factories in Iraq and inviting Pakistani investors to explore special‑economic‑zone opportunities [abc.net.au][iraq-businessnews.com][app.com.pk]. At the same time, Doha pressed Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and highlighted its growing defence cooperation with Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia, while also noting a modest but rising trade relationship with Russia, suggesting the emirate is managing regional tensions without domestic unrest [jpost.com][indiatoday.intoday.in][tass.com][tass.com]. abc.net.au iraq-businessnews.com
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia Houthi forces stepped up attacks on Saudi territory, intercepting a ballistic missile aimed at Taif and claiming strikes on the Ras Tanura refinery, the East‑West oil pipeline and Saudi airports, while Saudi defenses reported repelling missile and drone assaults and shooting down the Taif missile [khaama.com][thehindubusinessline.com][thehindu.com][jpost.com]. The escalation coincided with a rise in crude prices after the refinery attacks and reports that Russian satellite data aided Iran‑backed militias in targeting Saudi oil infrastructure [timesofindia.indiatimes.com][khaama.com]. Domestic economic activity showed mixed signals, with Saudi giga‑project contract awards falling to $10.6 billion and Maaden forming a new audit committee, but no immediate impact on political stability was reported [skift.com][english.mubasher.info]. en.abna24.com english.mubasher.info
🇸🇾 Syria Jordan’s airstrikes on Syrian territory in Daraa province killed at least seven civilians, including children, prompting Damascus to label the attacks an “unacceptable violation” of its airspace and to open an investigation while closing the Nasib border crossing with Jordan over security concerns [vaticannews.va][thehindu.com][azernews.az]. In response, Syria and Jordan agreed to create a joint security committee to examine the strikes and their repercussions, a move that underscores heightened cross‑border tensions but also a diplomatic channel to manage the fallout [al-monitor.com][al-monitor.com]. The civilian casualties and border closure have raised domestic outrage and could exacerbate instability in the already volatile southern region [al-monitor.com]. economictimes.indiatimes.com al-monitor.com
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates The UAE highlighted its internal security and national pride by awarding flydubai captain Smit Machchhar and his crew the First Class Order of Zayed II for averting a mid‑air cockpit attack, with the medals presented by Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum [Business‑Standard]. At the same time, several human‑rights groups urged the international community to reject Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh’s candidacy for UN secretary‑general, citing concerns over the UAE’s alleged financing of the Sudan conflict and other abuses [Al‑Monitor]. economictimes.indiatimes.com thehindu.com
🇾🇪 Yemen Houthi forces stepped up cross‑border attacks, intercepting Saudi defenses and striking airports, an oil refinery and Riyadh itself, as the coalition reported multiple missile interceptions and explosions in Saudi cities [khaama.com; activistpost.com; thehindu.com; business-standard.com]. The group also threatened Egypt over its decision to provide defensive aid to Saudi Arabia, widening regional tensions [ynet.co.il]. Meanwhile, a new humanitarian partnership was signed to boost aid for Yemen and Sudan, underscoring the deepening crisis [thebubble.com]. khaama.com activistpost.com
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
