GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇮🇷 Iran's IRGC intercepts hostile jet over Qeshm Island · 07:48 UTC — IRGC Intercepts 'Hostile Jet' Over Qeshm Island Amid Rising Tensions in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: jpost.com
🌾 Wheat price down 9.1% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.6 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Wheat (exports) — ZW=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes.
Tanker struck, attacks escalate in Strait of Hormuz · 03:18 UTC — Tanker Strike and Escalating Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz · Sources: gulfnews.com
🇮🇷 Vessel fire in Strait of Hormuz; IRGC claims mine strike · 02:33 UTC — Vessel Fire in Strait of Hormuz: UKMTO Investigates, IRGC Claims Mine Strike · Sources: jpost.com
🇾🇪🇸🇦🇮🇷 Tanker fires in Strait of Hormuz amid Houthi Saudi strikes · 00:48 UTC — Iran's IRGC Reports Tanker Fires in Hormuz Strait Amid Houthi Claims of Saudi Strikes · Sources: aljazeera.com
🇮🇱 Israel issues new airline security directives after thwarted attack · 21:18 UTC — Israel Issues Stringent New Airline Security Directives Following Thwarted Terror Attack · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇷🇺 Russian drone strike kills 13 at Dnipro station · 12:03 UTC — Russian Drone Strike Kills 13 at Dnipro Station as Ceasefire Talks Stall · Source: AFP
🇮🇷 Three oil tankers hit mines in Strait of Hormuz · 11:33 UTC — Three Oil Tankers Hit Mines in Strait of Hormuz, Iran Claims · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇺🇸 Six-day ceasefire brings quiet to Kherson · 11:33 UTC — Six-Day Ceasefire Brokered by Melania Trump Brings Quiet to Kherson · Sources: france24.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1445.2 -10.1% · -3.0σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
🌾 Wheat price (exports · ZW=F daily settlement) ▼ 604.75 -9.1% · -2.6σ
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 988.5 -11.4% · -2.5σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇮🇷 Iran — US Iran war: Ship seen ablaze in Strait of Hormuz off Oman coast [International Relations] · economictimes.indiatimes.com · also: laprovence.com, sudouest.fr
🇮🇷 Iran — US removes top military strategy official amid possible Iran strikes [International Relations] · france24.com · also: arabnews.com, aawsat.com
🇮🇷 Iran — Hegseth Fires the Pentagon’s Top Military Planner As Trump Considers New Iran Strikes [International Relations] · realcleardefense.com · also: hngn.com, firstpost.com
🇴🇲 Oman — US Iran war: Ship seen ablaze in Strait of Hormuz off Oman coast [International Relations] · economictimes.indiatimes.com · also: laprovence.com, sudouest.fr
🇴🇲 Oman — UK: Vessel on fire spotted in Hormuz [International Relations] · azernews.az · also: freemalaysiatoday.com, news.am
🇴🇲 Oman — IRGC Navy: Three Tankers Ablaze After Striking Mines in Strait of Hormuz [International Relations] · www2.stockmarketwatch.com · also: haqqin.az, news18.com
🇧🇩 Bangladesh — Bangladesh regime change: AFP journalist contacted Yunus even before Hasina's exit [Democratic Integrity] · indiatoday.in
🇧🇷 Brazil — Decoys, secret jet and Trump's help: How Bolsonaro pulled off his escape from Brazil to US [Political Equilibrium] · livemint.com · also: hindustantimes.com, ntv.com.tr
Upcoming events to watch
Mid-term assessments: whether events in the next 60 to 90 days are likely to worsen or improve each country's position, and what is driving the call. Countries with no expected change are left out.
Africa
Potentially deteriorating
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso Degrades — baseline Unstable
The jihadist insurgency is expected to escalate further, leading to more violence and displacement.
Extended military rule may result in governance issues and public dissatisfaction.
Deepening ties with Russia could provoke responses from Western nations, complicating foreign relations.
The worsening humanitarian crisis and regional isolation will exacerbate social tensions and hinder recovery efforts.
🇹🇩 Chad Degrades — baseline Unstable
The proposed constitutional changes in October 2025 are likely to be met with significant opposition and could incite widespread protests, further destabilizing the political landscape.
The suppression of political opposition, including the imprisonment of key leaders, is a clear sign of authoritarian governance that may lead to civil unrest and a push for democratic reforms.
Cross-border security threats from Sudan and the resulting refugee influx will strain Chad's already limited resources and could exacerbate existing tensions.
Ongoing internal insurgency and violence, particularly in the southern and eastern regions, will continue to pose serious challenges to security and governance, leading to a further decline in stability.
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea Degrades — baseline Unstable
Succession Tensions: The potential for conflict during the power transition from Obiang to Teodorín could lead to significant political instability.
Economic Decline: As oil production continues to decline, the resulting economic strain could fuel public discontent and challenge the regime's authority.
Russian Security Presence: While intended to bolster security, the reliance on foreign military support may signal weakness and provoke further unrest.
International Isolation: Increasing diplomatic isolation and scrutiny could undermine the regime's stability and provoke internal dissent
🇬🇭 Ghana Degrades — baseline Weak
Electoral Tensions: The upcoming 2024 presidential election is likely to escalate political tensions, with the potential for violence and disputes over results, reminiscent of past electoral challenges.
Economic Pressures: The new administration's reform agenda post-2025 may lead to social unrest due to differing impacts on various groups, despite Ghana's strong democratic history.
Regional Security Issues: Instability in neighboring countries poses a risk of spillover effects, particularly in areas with existing ethnic or political tensions.
Policy Uncertainty: The approach to governance and economic management after the 2024 elections could lead to uncertainty and dissatisfaction among the populace. These factors suggest a potential decline in stability if not managed carefully.
🇱🇷 Liberia Degrades — baseline Unstable
Leadership Crisis in the House of Representatives: This ongoing crisis threatens the stability of governance and could lead to legislative gridlock, undermining effective governance.
Establishment of a War Crimes Court: While this could improve the rule of law, it may also provoke political backlash and social unrest, particularly if perceived as targeting specific groups.
2029 Presidential and Legislative Elections: The strengthening of opposition parties may lead to heightened political tensions as the elections approach, especially if there are allegations of unfair practices.
Drug Seizures and National Security Alerts: Increasing drug-related issues could strain law enforcement resources and heighten security concerns, impacting public safety and confidence in governance
🇳🇦 Namibia Degrades — baseline Stable
The leadership transition to Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as Namibia's first female president could be a double-edged sword; while it represents progress, any missteps during the transition could lead to instability.
Legal challenges from opposition parties regarding the 2024 election results may stir political tensions, even if they are ultimately resolved peacefully.
Regional and local authority elections in 2025 will test SWAPO's grip on power, and any significant losses could embolden opposition and create governance challenges.
Economic and social pressures, particularly high unemployment and income inequality, are likely to escalate public dissatisfaction and challenge the government's stability if not addressed effectively.
🇿🇦 South Africa Degrades — baseline Weak
Tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU): Conflicts among coalition partners over key legislation could lead to governance issues and weakened political cohesion.
Economic challenges from the national budget and US tariffs: Potential economic strain from budgetary conflicts and unfavorable trade conditions may trigger political unrest.
International scrutiny from the G20 Summit: While hosting the G20 could enhance South Africa's global standing, it also risks exposing internal issues to a wider audience, possibly leading to embarrassment or loss of credibility.
Regional instability and domestic discontent: Ongoing regional conflicts and high unemployment may exacerbate societal tensions, increasing the likelihood of protests and further instability
🇸🇩 Sudan Degrades — baseline Unstable
The ongoing civil war is expected to escalate further, leading to more civilian casualties and displacement, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
The RSF's territorial advances may provoke stronger military responses, increasing conflict intensity.
Failed peace efforts and the uncertainty surrounding new proposals will likely prolong instability and suffering.
The UN sanctions vote could either tighten or loosen international control over the conflict, but the overall effect will be minimal in the face of internal chaos.
🇹🇬 Togo Degrades — baseline Unstable
The constitutional overhaul planned for March 2024 is likely to provoke significant backlash, as it undermines democratic processes and could lead to widespread protests against perceived authoritarianism.
The ongoing jihadist insurgency poses a serious security threat that could escalate, particularly if the government is seen as unable to manage the situation effectively.
The domestic opposition movements are gaining momentum, and their demands for political reform could lead to heightened tensions and civil unrest.
Geopolitical realignment with potentially hostile foreign influences may alienate Togo from traditional allies, further complicating its political landscape. These factors indicate a convergence of internal and external pressures that could severely impact Togo's stability in the near future.
🇪🇭 Western Sahara Degrades — baseline Weak
The renewal of the MINURSO mandate and affirmation of Morocco's Autonomy Plan may provide a temporary framework for dialogue, but without genuine commitment from both sides, this could lead to further frustration and conflict.
Intensified mediation efforts by the UN envoy could offer hope for resolution, but past experiences suggest that without strong backing from major powers, these efforts may falter.
Mixed signals from the U.S. and Europe regarding their positions on Western Sahara could embolden hardline stances from both Morocco and the Polisario Front.
The ongoing diplomatic deadlock and lack of progress toward a political solution are likely to exacerbate tensions and lead to increased instability in the region.
Upcoming events section for PRO readers only. Try PRO for a week free here.
Africa: stability and news
The day's news by country, with each country's stability rating
🇩🇿 Algeria (Unstable) Algeria announced its first overseas troop deployment since 1973, sending forces to Niger amid a diplomatic rift with Mali, highlighting a shift in its regional security posture [riotimesonline.com]. The government also denied allegations that Algerian aircraft were transporting weapons to Moscow via Polish airspace, countering claims that could affect its international standing [riotimesonline.com].
🇧🇼 Botswana (Stable) Jacaranda Natural Resources began diamond drilling at its Globe gold project in Botswana after a rig arrived on site yesterday, indicating ongoing investment in the mining sector [themarketherald.com.au].
🇧🇮 Burundi (Unstable) Burundi’s president Evariste Ndayishimiye met Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasizing long‑term Russia‑African Union cooperation and seeking concrete commitments at the upcoming Russia‑Africa summit [Source - tass.com]. Ndayishimiye also highlighted the need for Russian expertise in agriculture, energy, healthcare and scientific research, signalling a push for deeper strategic ties that could bolster the country’s political and economic stability [Source - tass.com].
🇨🇲 Cameroon (Unstable) Cameroon’s main opposition, the MRC party, formally requested that the presidency be declared vacant on 28 October 2026, a move that could destabilise the political landscape if pursued. No official response to the request has been issued yet, leaving uncertainty over the country’s leadership continuity. [riotimesonline.com]
🇨🇫 Central African Republic (Unstable) CAR President Faustin‑Archange Touadera said African nations, including the Central African Republic, are looking to broaden cooperation with Russia across several sectors, moving away from a model that treats the continent mainly as a raw‑material supplier [Source - tass.com]. This shift signals a strategic realignment that could affect the country's economic and political stability.
🇹🇩 Chad (Unstable) Switzerland has frozen funding to Doctors Without Borders over allegations of sexual exploitation by its staff in Chad, raising concerns about humanitarian aid disruptions in the country [zerohedge.com].
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo (Unstable) The Southern African Development Community withdrew its peacekeeping force from the DRC on 13 March, ending a regional military presence that had been supporting stability in the east [riotimesonline.com]. In North Kivu, pro‑democracy activist Clovis Kakule Mutsuva remains in a military trial after being detained by plain‑clothes security officers in July, highlighting ongoing political repression [hrw.org].
🇸🇿 Eswatini (Weak) King Mswati III is reportedly preparing to marry Nontokozo Shembe, the daughter of a prominent Nazareth Baptist Church leader, a union that could shift alliances between the monarchy and a key religious community [thesouthafrican.com].
🇪🇹 Ethiopia (Unstable) Ethiopia took delivery of 12 Russian Su‑35 fighter jets on 28 October, a year ahead of schedule, and is set to receive four S‑400 air‑defence batteries, bolstering its military capacity amid renewed fighting in the northern Tigray region that began last month [riotimesonline.com] [bbc.co.uk]. The government also invited Russian universities to cooperate on artificial‑intelligence projects and urged Russian firms to use African special‑economic zones to access continental markets, signalling deeper strategic ties with Moscow [Source - tass.com].
🇬🇦 Gabon (Unstable) Three bodies were recovered after the Prospector 5 drilling rig sank off Gabon's southern coast over the weekend, highlighting a maritime accident but not indicating broader unrest. The recovery effort proceeded without reported protests or security disruptions. [insurancejournal.com]
🇬🇭 Ghana (Weak) Russia has pledged to lobby BRICS founding members on Ghana’s bid to become a partner, a move that could reshape the country’s trade ties and diplomatic alignment [ventureburn.com]. Meanwhile, aluminium producer Rusal is set to acquire majority stakes in two joint‑venture projects to develop the Nyinahini deposit in the Ashanti Region, signalling increased foreign investment in Ghana’s mining sector [Source - tass.com].
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast (Weak) Real estate fraud is rising as a severe housing shortage drives demand for land, with scammers selling fake properties and exploiting vulnerable buyers [Source - France24]. Meanwhile, security analysts warn that Ivory Coast’s northern border could become a conduit for jihadist activity, citing a recent study on JNIM’s movements in Mali that puts the frontier under heightened scrutiny [Source - RIOTimes Online]. [france24.com] [riotimesonline.com]
🇰🇪 Kenya (Weak) Kenya’s Justice Department disclosed a multi‑million‑dollar student‑loan fraud scheme involving dozens of Kenyans, with several indictments announced on Thursday, raising concerns about corruption and financial oversight in the country [thegatewaypundit.com]. At the same time, Kenya and Russia affirmed shared positions on key global issues, including a push to strengthen the United Nations’ central role, signalling Kenya’s continued engagement in international diplomacy [Source - tass.com]. The Tana Forum highlighted the need for African economic sovereignty and deeper regional integration, underscoring ongoing debates about Kenya’s development strategy and stability [jpost.com].
🇱🇸 Lesotho (Unstable) The Lesotho Highlands Water Authority was ordered to pay M90 million in overdue compensation to communities affected by the dam project, a decision hailed as a major victory for local residents [groundup.org.za]. The ruling may ease community grievances but also highlights ongoing tensions over water‑resource management and government accountability.
🇲🇬 Madagascar (Unstable) The size of Madagascar’s flying foxes has decreased over the past 150 years, likely due to selective hunting or other human pressures [sciencenews.org].
🇲🇱 Mali (Unstable) Mali’s jihadist group JNIM remains a concern for regional security, with a recent study highlighting the risk of a militant corridor along its northern border with Ivory Coast【 [riotimesonline.com]】. Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that resolving the Sahel conflicts, including those in Mali, is crucial for global stability【[Source - tass.com]】.
🇲🇦 Morocco (Weak) Morocco announced a plan to triple the output of the Institute of Maritime Studies to 500 graduates a year by 2030, aiming to bolster its national fleet and maritime sector [Source - pravdareport.com]. The central bank identified slow judicial debt recovery and collateral enforcement as the main driver of an 8.2% non‑performing loan ratio, prompting new procedures to improve financial stability [Source - pravdareport.com].
🇲🇿 Mozambique (Weak) Mozambique’s president, Daniel Chapo, highlighted a new partnership with Russia, saying Russian investment will help the country fight terrorism, extremism and organized crime, underscoring the government’s focus on security challenges. [Source - tass.com]
🇳🇪 Niger (Weak) Algeria announced its first overseas troop deployment since 1973, sending forces to Niger amid a diplomatic rift with Mali, a move that could shift regional power dynamics and affect Niger’s internal stability [riotimesonline.com]. At the same time, Niger’s security forces faced criticism after 33 detainees died in a crowded cell, with guards accused of cruel, inhuman treatment, highlighting serious human‑rights concerns within the country’s detention system [france24.com].
🇳🇬 Nigeria (Unstable) Nigeria signed a customs‑cooperation pact with Russia aimed at streamlining trade and easing business procedures, a move announced on the sidelines of the third Russia‑Africa summit in Moscow [Source - tass.com]. President Bola Tinubu travelled to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj, publicly pledging to “pray for Nigeria” as part of his outreach to the Muslim community [bbc.co.uk]. In a separate diplomatic push, Nigeria and Pakistan called for a stronger strategic partnership that would expand defence, security and trade cooperation, signalling an effort to broaden external alliances [app.com.pk].
🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo (Weak) SADC ended its military mission in the Republic of the Congo on 13 March 2025, withdrawing South African troops as the regional bloc concluded its force deployment [riotimesonline.com]. The Congolese navy deepened ties with Russia by hosting twelve cadets on the Russian training ship Perekop for practical training, signaling continued security cooperation [Source - tass.com].
🇷🇼 Rwanda (Weak) A federal jury in the United States convicted a Rwandan man for lying about his role in the 1994 genocide, highlighting ongoing legal scrutiny of the country’s past atrocities [washingtontimes.com]. The United States also imposed sanctions on Rwanda’s army ministry, reflecting heightened international pressure on Rwanda’s security sector [riotimesonline.com].
🇸🇳 Senegal (Stable) Senegal is moving key malnutrition programmes onto mandatory municipal budget lines and tagging them for better accounting, reducing reliance on external aid and strengthening domestic fiscal control over food security [Source - pravdareport.com]. The Diourbel region is expanding solar kits and biomass from agricultural residues to cut imported energy dependence and lower village electricity costs, a step that could improve local economic resilience [Source - pravdareport.com]. The country is also gearing up to host the Youth Olympic Games this weekend, a high‑profile event that showcases its capacity to manage large‑scale international gatherings [Source - France 24]. [france24.com]
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone (Weak) Sierra Leone’s mines minister said the government is courting Russian mining expertise and Indian processing technology to develop the country’s mineral sector and reduce reliance on raw‑material exports, a move aimed at boosting economic stability. [Source - RT] [rt.com]
🇸🇴 Somalia (Unstable) Somalia’s security situation remains volatile as armed men hijacked the diesel tanker Honour 25, taking its crew hostage and demanding a multi‑million‑dollar ransom, underscoring the persistence of piracy off its coast [economictimes.indiatimes.com]. At the same time, the lower house of parliament approved a new law to criminalise sexual violence, updating a criminal code that had not been revised since 1962 [france24.com]. Meanwhile, U.S. airstrikes targeting al‑Shabaab have been accused of forcing civilian families into flood‑prone areas, raising concerns about the humanitarian impact of the campaign [motherjones.com].
🇿🇦 South Africa (Weak) The ANC warned that rising Islamophobic threats pose a national‑security risk as anti‑Muslim sentiment spikes [citizen.co.za]. Violent attacks on white farmers, including a brutal assault that left a victim critically injured, have heightened rural insecurity and drawn political condemnation [en.protothema.gr]. Meanwhile, the upcoming municipal elections are intensifying political competition and exposing service‑delivery failures, while the police force’s corruption and retaliation against whistle‑blowers undermine law‑enforcement credibility [theconversation.com][Source - will South Africa remain in ANC hands?].
🇸🇩 Sudan (Unstable) Swiss Solidarity launched a fundraising day to aid victims of Sudan’s war, noting that conflict, hunger and drought are deepening the country’s humanitarian crisis [Source - Swissinfo]. [ncbi.nlm.nih.gov] [swissinfo.ch]
🇹🇿 Tanzania (Stable) The United States ambassador warned that the 518 deaths linked to Tanzania’s 2025 election will not be ignored and a Senate bill could trigger sanctions, raising concerns over political stability【 [riotimesonline.com]】. At the same time, unusually heavy short‑rainfall from El Niño is expected to flood roads and disrupt wildlife areas through January 2027, threatening economic and social stability in the tourism sector【】. India and Russia are deepening defence and energy cooperation with Tanzania, including plans for a satellite launch, which may bolster the government’s security posture【 [economictimes.indiatimes.com]】【[Source - tass.com]】.
🇺🇬 Uganda (Weak) Uganda’s courts sentenced five Muslim men to death for the 2024 murder of two Christian evangelists, a case that could inflame religious tensions in the country [morningstarnews.org].
🇿🇲 Zambia (Weak) The ruling party’s candidate withdrew from the Mandevu constituency race, saying he faced death threats, raising concerns about political intimidation ahead of elections [diggers.news]. The health ministry reported 1,622 cholera cases and 30 deaths, highlighting a public‑health crisis that could strain local stability [diggers.news]. Inflation climbed to 6.3%, adding economic pressure on households while 250 clinics transitioned to cloud‑based records via Starlink, a move aimed at improving health service resilience [diggers.news] [techcentral.co.za]
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe (Unstable) Zimbabwe’s stock market slipped, with the ZSE All‑Share Index down 0.5% as CBZ shares fell 6.66%, though trading on the VFEX rose to about US$1.5 million, indicating mixed investor sentiment [thezimbabwemail.com]. A former goalkeeper denied an alleged bribe to influence a Premier Soccer League match, a claim that could affect public confidence in the sport’s integrity [thesouthafrican.com].
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
