In partnership with
GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Tomorrow is election day in the US. Democrats are expected to take control of the House of Representatives and seem to have a chance of also winning the Senate. Whatever the final results, President Trump will have a much less pliant Capitol and will face significant scrutiny for his actions in the first half of his term.
Trump has hinted that he would resume military action against Iran after the midterms, but reporting from Axios suggests that he may allow negotiations to continue and that strikes may not be immediate.
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Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the weekend, since Friday's issue
🇷🇺 Russia resumes Kherson attacks after ceasefire ends · 09:48 UTC — Russia Resumes Kherson Attacks After Ceasefire Ends · Source: AFP
🇺🇸 Ceasefire allows evacuation of 2,000 residents from Oleshky · 09:18 UTC — Melania Trump-Brokered Ceasefire Allows Evacuation of 2,000 Residents from Oleshky · Sources: cbsnews.com
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia and Ukraine trade blame for cyberattacks as ceasefire ends · 06:48 UTC — Live: Russia and Ukraine trade blame for cyber attacks as fragile ceasefire ends · Sources: france24.com
Brief ceasefire allows evacuation of 180 from Kherson · 06:18 UTC — Brief Ceasefire Allows Evacuation of 180 from Kherson Kill Zone · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran proposes 48-hour plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz · 23:48 UTC — Iran Proposes 48-Hour Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid US Talks · Sources: gulfnews.com
🇮🇷 Two tankers explode in Strait of Hormuz after hitting mines · 21:18 UTC — IRGC Claims Two Tankers Exploded in Hormuz Strait After Hitting Mines · Sources: jpost.com
🇫🇷 Police clash with rioters after mass protests in France · 18:03 UTC — Police Clash with Rioters Following Mass Protests in France and Europe · Sources: theguardian.com
🇺🇦🇺🇸 Hostilities resume in Kherson as ceasefire ends · 17:03 UTC — Ukraine's Kherson Braces for Ceasefire End as Hostilities Resume; Trump Brokered Truce; Drone Swings Intensify · Sources: apnews.com
🇾🇪🇸🇦 Houthis accuse Saudi Arabia of airstrikes on Hodeida medical school · 14:48 UTC — Houthis Accuse Saudi Arabia of Airstrikes on Hodeida Medical School · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇷🇺🇺🇸 US warns Russia of Moscow museum terror attack; venue evacuated · 14:03 UTC — U.S. Warns Russia of Possible Terror Attack at Moscow Museum; Venue Evacuated · Sources: nbcnews.com
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 Russian strikes cut power to thousands in Ukraine · 13:18 UTC — Russian Strikes Cut Power to Thousands in Ukraine Despite Trump's Energy Ceasefire Push · Sources: nbcnews.com
Five killed in fresh ethnic violence in Manipur · 12:18 UTC — Five Killed in Fresh Ethnic Violence in Manipur Amidst Mass Protests · Sources: independent.co.uk
🇷🇺 Russian drone strike kills 14 in Dnipro · 07:03 UTC — Russian Drone Strike Kills 14 in Dnipro as Oleshky Ceasefire Holds · Sources: cbsnews.com
⛏️ Primary aluminum price up 4.6% vs its 28-day baseline (+2.1 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Primary aluminum (smelting) — ALI=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major).
Zelenskyy says Black Sea ceasefire gaining momentum after Oleshky truce · 04:48 UTC — Zelenskyy: Oleshky Truce Proves De-escalation Possible as Black Sea Ceasefire Gains Momentum · Sources: theguardian.com
🇧🇴 Bolivia declares state of emergency over El Niño floods, drought · 01:18 UTC — Bolivia Declares State of Emergency as El Niño Causes Flooding and Drought · Source: AFP
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦 Iran and US discuss reopening Strait of Hormuz via Qatar · 00:48 UTC — Iran and US Discuss Reopening Strait of Hormuz via Qatar Mediation · Sources: aljazeera.com
🇺🇸🇨🇦 US, Canada push for limited Black Sea ceasefire at G20 · 20:48 UTC — US, Canada push for limited Black Sea ceasefire at G20 · Sources: straitstimes.com
🇺🇦🇹🇷 Erdogan, Zelensky condemn Black Sea civilian vessel attacks, discuss Turkey talks · 17:33 UTC — Erdogan and Zelensky Condemn Black Sea Attacks on Civilian Vessels, Discuss Peace Talks in Turkey · Source: AFP
🇺🇸🇷🇺 US warns Russia of planned terror attack on Moscow museum · 16:48 UTC — Russia Responds to US Warning of Planned Terror Attack on Moscow's Tsaritsyno Museum · Source: AFP
🇮🇷 Iran threatens immediate response amid Hormuz talks · 15:48 UTC — Iran Leader Threatens Immediate Response as Strait of Hormuz Talks Progress · Sources: apnews.com
🇺🇦🇺🇸 Oleshky evacuees return to Ukraine under ceasefire · 14:48 UTC — Oleshky Evacuees Return to Ukraine Under Trump-Brokered Ceasefire · Sources: us.cnn.com
🇫🇷🇩🇪 France deploys 70,000 police as mass protests loom · 12:48 UTC — France and Germany brace for mass protests as 70,000 police deploy in France · Sources: theguardian.com
🇺🇸 Two fishermen missing after US-blamed attack in Strait of Hormuz · 10:48 UTC — Two Fishermen Missing After US-Blamed Attack in Strait of Hormuz · Source: AFP
🇧🇾🇷🇺 Oleshky evacuees arrive in Belarus after ceasefire · 10:33 UTC — Evacuees from Russian-Controlled Oleshky Arrive in Belarus Following Ceasefire · Sources: straitstimes.com
⛏️ Platinum price down 9.6% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.4 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Platinum — PL=F daily settlement. Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major).
⛏️ Palladium price down 11.0% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.3 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Palladium — PA=F daily settlement. Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy).
🍊 Orange juice price down 11.2% vs its 28-day baseline (-3.3 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Orange juice (exports) — OJ=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 75% (major).
🇮🇳 Limpet mine attack hits Indian-crewed tanker in Strait of Hormuz · 02:33 UTC — Limpet Mine Attack on Indian Crew Tanker in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇵🇰🇺🇸🇮🇷 Pakistan optimistic on US-Iran mediation amid Hormuz escalation · 22:33 UTC — Pakistan Cautiously Optimistic on US-Iran Mediation Amidst Strait of Hormuz Escalation · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇵🇱 Poland ousts constitutional chief judge amid coup accusations · 22:03 UTC — Poland's Constitutional Tribunal in Turmoil as Chief Judge Ousted Amidst Coup Accusations · Sources: politico.eu
Kherson ceasefire nears expiry amid brief hope · 21:33 UTC — Brief Ceasefire Offers Hope in War-Ravaged Kherson as Truce Nears Expiry · Source: AFP
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran claims tanker fires and downed drone in Hormuz; US denies · 20:18 UTC — Iran Claims Tanker Fires and Drone Downed in Strait of Hormuz; US Denies Losses · Sources: independent.co.uk
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇶🇦 Trump says Iran war to end soon as Qatar pushes deal · 15:18 UTC — Trump Says Iran War 'Going to End Soon' as Qatar Pushes for Deal Amidst Strait of Hormuz Incidents · Sources: cbsnews.com
🇮🇹 Mass protests sweep Italy against Meloni over living costs · 14:18 UTC — Mass Protests Sweep Italy Targeting Meloni Government Over Living Costs and Public Services · Sources: edition.cnn.com
🇮🇷 IRGC halts two tankers in Strait of Hormuz · 13:33 UTC — IRGC Halts Two Tankers in Strait of Hormuz Following 'Incidents' · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇶🇦🇺🇸🇮🇷 Qatar mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks · 13:33 UTC — Qatar Mediates Ceasefire Talks Between US and Iran · Sources: aljazeera.com
Tech stocks and Bitcoin plunge amid Strait of Hormuz tensions · 12:03 UTC — Tech Stocks and Bitcoin Plunge as Geopolitical Tensions Rise in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇹 Italy deploys 500 troops amid strikes and port blockades · 11:33 UTC — Italy Deploys 500 Troops Amidst Widespread Strikes and Port Blockades · Sources: nbcnews.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🍊 Orange juice price (exports · OJ=F daily settlement) ▼ 115.35 -18.9% · -4.9σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 75% (major)
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1435.6 -12.1% · -2.8σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 983.0 -11.2% · -2.2σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the weekend, since Friday's issue — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇮🇷 Iran — Iran hardliner demands atomic bomb as Khamenei threatens ‘unrestricted’ retaliation against US [International Relations] · nypost.com · also: turkiyegazetesi.com.tr, mtv.com.lb
🇺🇦 Ukraine — Ukraine War, Day 1,709: Russia Murders 14 Civilians on a Train Platform in Dnipro [Law and Order] · cbsnews.com · also: eleconomista.es, arab.com.ua
🇵🇱 Poland — Putin Says Russia Is Ready for War With Europe [International Relations] · realcleardefense.com · also: defence-blog.com, kubnews.ru
🇷🇺 Russia — Russia strikes energy facilities in Kyiv [International Relations] · sabcnews.com · also: haberler.com, epravda.com.ua
🇷🇺 Russia — Russia recruits Africans to fight in Ukraine, families seek answers [International Relations] · france24.com · also: newsukraine.rbc.ua, rfi.fr
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — At least 60 Christians killed in Ethiopia amid rising religious violence [Internal Social Harmony] · france24.com · also: latintimes.com, fdesouche.com
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Drone strikes kill 14, including children, in Ethiopia's Amhara: witnesses [Law and Order] · thehindu.com
🇺🇸 United States Of America — Decades of enemy subversion pose an existential threat to U.S., new book reveals [International Relations] · washingtontimes.com · also: rfi.fr, elespectador.com
Global Stability Ratings
| Americas | |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda: Stable | 🇭🇹 Haiti: Unstable |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina: Unstable | 🇭🇳 Honduras: Unstable |
| 🇧🇧 Barbados: Stable | 🇯🇲 Jamaica: Weak |
| 🇧🇿 Belize: Stable | 🇲🇽 Mexico: Weak |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia: Weak | 🇳🇮 Nicaragua: Unstable |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil: Weak | 🇵🇦 Panama: Stable |
| 🇨🇦 Canada: Stable | 🇵🇾 Paraguay: Stable |
| 🇨🇱 Chile: Stable | 🇵🇪 Peru: Weak |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia: Stable | 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis: Stable |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica: Stable | 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia: Stable |
| 🇨🇺 Cuba: Unstable | 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Stable |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica: Weak | 🇸🇷 Suriname: Weak |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic: Weak | 🇧🇸 The Bahamas: Stable |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador: Weak | 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago: Weak |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador: Weak | 🇺🇸 United States Of America: Weak |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada: Stable | 🇺🇾 Uruguay: Stable |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala: Unstable | 🇻🇪 Venezuela: Unstable |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana: Weak | |
| Europe | |
| 🇦🇱 Albania: Stable | 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Highly Stable |
| 🇦🇩 Andorra: Stable | 🇲🇰 Macedonia: Weak |
| 🇦🇹 Austria: Stable | 🇲🇹 Malta: Stable |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus: Unstable | 🇲🇩 Moldova: Weak |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium: Weak | 🇲🇨 Monaco: Highly Stable |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina: Weak | 🇲🇪 Montenegro: Weak |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria: Weak | 🇳🇱 Netherlands: Stable |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia: Stable | 🇳🇴 Norway: Highly Stable |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus: Weak | 🇵🇱 Poland: Stable |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic: Stable | 🇵🇹 Portugal: Stable |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark: Stable | 🇷🇴 Romania: Stable |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia: Stable | 🇷🇺 Russia: Unstable |
| 🇫🇮 Finland: Stable | 🇸🇲 San Marino: Stable |
| 🇫🇷 France: Stable | 🇷🇸 Serbia: Weak |
| 🇩🇪 Germany: Stable | 🇸🇰 Slovakia: Stable |
| 🇬🇷 Greece: Stable | 🇸🇮 Slovenia: Stable |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary: Stable | 🇪🇸 Spain: Stable |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland: Stable | 🇸🇪 Sweden: Stable |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland: Weak | 🇨🇭 Switzerland: Stable |
| 🇮🇹 Italy: Stable | 🇹🇷 Turkey: Weak |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia: Weak | 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Unstable |
| 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein: Stable | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Stable |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Stable | |
| MENA | |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain: Weak | 🇱🇾 Libya: Unstable |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt: Unstable | 🇴🇲 Oman: Weak |
| 🇮🇷 Iran: Weak | 🇶🇦 Qatar: Weak |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq: Weak | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Weak |
| 🇮🇱 Israel: Weak | 🇸🇾 Syria: Critically Unstable |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan: Weak | 🇹🇳 Tunisia: Weak |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait: Weak | 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates: Weak |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon: Unstable | 🇾🇪 Yemen: Critically Unstable |
| Asia | |
| 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: Critically Unstable | 🇲🇻 Maldives: Weak |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia: Weak | 🇲🇳 Mongolia: Stable |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Unstable | 🇲🇲 Myanmar: Critically Unstable |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Weak | 🇳🇵 Nepal: Weak |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan: Weak | 🇰🇵 North Korea: Critically Unstable |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei: Stable | 🇵🇰 Pakistan: Weak |
| 🇰🇭 Cambodia: Unstable | 🇵🇭 Philippines: Weak |
| 🇨🇳 China: Weak | 🇸🇬 Singapore: Stable |
| 🇹🇱 East Timor: Stable | 🇰🇷 South Korea: Stable |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia: Unstable | 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: Weak |
| 🇮🇳 India: Weak | 🇹🇼 Taiwan: Stable |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Weak | 🇹🇯 Tajikistan: Unstable |
| 🇯🇵 Japan: Stable | 🇹🇭 Thailand: Weak |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: Weak | 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan: Unstable |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan: Weak | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Weak |
| 🇱🇦 Laos: Unstable | 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Stable |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia: Weak | |
| Oceania | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia: Stable | 🇵🇼 Palau: Stable |
| 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia: Weak | 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea: Weak |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji: Weak | 🇼🇸 Samoa: Weak |
| 🇰🇮 Kiribati: Weak | 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands: Unstable |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands: Stable | 🇹🇴 Tonga: Weak |
| 🇳🇷 Nauru: Weak | 🇹🇻 Tuvalu: Stable |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand: Stable | 🇻🇺 Vanuatu: Weak |
| Africa | |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria: Unstable | 🇲🇼 Malawi: Weak |
| 🇦🇴 Angola: Unstable | 🇲🇱 Mali: Unstable |
| 🇧🇯 Benin: Weak | 🇲🇷 Mauritania: Unstable |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana: Stable | 🇲🇺 Mauritius: Stable |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso: Unstable | 🇲🇦 Morocco: Weak |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi: Unstable | 🇲🇿 Mozambique: Weak |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon: Unstable | 🇳🇦 Namibia: Stable |
| 🇨🇻 Cape Verde: Stable | 🇳🇪 Niger: Weak |
| 🇨🇫 Central African Republic: Unstable | 🇳🇬 Nigeria: Unstable |
| 🇹🇩 Chad: Unstable | 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo: Weak |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros: Unstable | 🇷🇼 Rwanda: Weak |
| 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo: Unstable | 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe: Stable |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti: Weak | 🇸🇳 Senegal: Stable |
| 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea: Unstable | 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone: Weak |
| 🇪🇷 Eritrea: Unstable | 🇸🇴 Somalia: Unstable |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini: Weak | 🇿🇦 South Africa: Weak |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia: Unstable | 🇸🇸 South Sudan: Critically Unstable |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon: Unstable | 🇸🇩 Sudan: Unstable |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana: Weak | 🇹🇿 Tanzania: Stable |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea: Unstable | 🇬🇲 The Gambia: Weak |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau: Unstable | 🇹🇬 Togo: Unstable |
| 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: Weak | 🇺🇬 Uganda: Weak |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya: Weak | 🇪🇭 Western Sahara: Weak |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho: Unstable | 🇿🇲 Zambia: Weak |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia: Unstable | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: Unstable |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar: Unstable | |
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
