GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
A quick cyber bulletin…
Cyber attacks on grocery stores across Europe resulted in millions of euros in spoiled food after attackers switched the units to defrost mode. Stores in Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, Estonia and Finland were hit in the attack which was very similar to an attack in France last month. All units affected were insecure and seemingly open to the internet allowing the attackers easy access to control systems. [More - BBC] The US military experienced a similar series of attacks in August which it is now treating as a suspected cyber attack. [More - Military Times]
Access seems to have been due to a simple admin override flaw in older versions of the software where using an easily calculated code-of-the-day provided admin access to the system via a webhosted interface. This flaw was patched in August 2025 but the supposition is that the affected units were not patched. A good technical write up of the hack is on IronHackers here.
So what?
You may not run a grocery store but the basic flaws of weak / poor / no passwords, out of date software and easily accessible systems exist everywhere*. Five simple fixes:
Keep software up to date and pay particular attention to security patches.
Use strong passwords and save them in something like 1Password for simplicity and ease of access while remaining secure.
Add multi factor authentication (MFA)
Isolate sensitive control systems from the open web using a VPN or separate network.
Weed out old credentials of former staff and those who no longer need access.
These are all simple steps that will prevent a significant proportion of opportunity or drive-by attacks helping keep sensitive and critical systems safer.
*And by everywhere, I mean in point of sale systems, security systems, industrial control systems, supply chain management software so it’s not just fridge-freezers we are worried about.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇸🇦 Aramco explores pipeline expansion to bypass Hormuz blockade · 08:48 UTC — Aramco Explores Pipeline Expansion to Bypass Hormuz Blockade Amidst Energy Crisis · Sources: jpost.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US airstrikes Iran's Qeshm Island after attack on US aircraft · 04:18 UTC — US carries out defensive airstrikes on Iran's Qeshm Island: Officials · Sources: abcnews.com
🇺🇸🇺🇦 US urges NATO to boost Ukraine funding as peace talks loom · 02:48 UTC — US Urges NATO to Increase Ukraine Funding as Peace Talks Loom and Strikes Kill 26 · Sources: jpost.com
🇮🇱🇮🇷 Netanyahu pushes for new Iran strikes · 02:48 UTC — Netanyahu Pushes for New Iran Strikes as Iran Proposes Strait Reopening Plan · Sources: apnews.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US conducts strikes on Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz · 02:33 UTC — US Conducts Defensive Strikes on Iranian Targets in Strait of Hormuz Ahead of Midterms · Sources: apnews.com
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺🇦🇪 US, Ukraine, Russia to meet in Abu Dhabi for peace talks · 23:48 UTC — US, Ukraine, Russia to meet in Abu Dhabi for peace talks next week · Source: AFP
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian strike on Ukrainian aid center kills 26 · 23:03 UTC — Russian Strike on Ukrainian Aid Center Kills 26; Zelenskyy Offers Ceasefire Deal for Patriot Missiles · Sources: dw.com
🇮🇷 Multiple explosions on Iran's Qeshm Island near Strait of Hormuz · 22:33 UTC — Multiple Explosions Reported on Iran's Qeshm Island Near Strait of Hormuz · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇷🇺 Russian strikes kill 18 after ceasefire collapse · 19:33 UTC — Russian Strikes Kill 18 After Ceasefire Collapse, Dashing Peace Hopes · Source: AFP
🇫🇷 French pupils resume school blockades amid rising protests · 19:03 UTC — French Pupils Resume School Blockades Amidst Rising Protests · Sources: theguardian.com
🇮🇱 Israeli attacks kill five in Gaza despite ceasefire · 18:48 UTC — Israeli Attacks Kill Five in Gaza Strip Following Ceasefire · Source: AFP
Zambia accused of post-election violence and crackdown · 14:33 UTC — Human Rights Watch Accuses Zambia of Post-Election Violence and Crackdown · Sources: apnews.com
🇪🇹 Renewed fighting in Ethiopia shatters peace deal, WHO warns · 13:48 UTC — WHO Chief Warns of Health Collapse in Ethiopia as Renewed Fighting Shatters Peace Deal · Sources: apnews.com
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Cyberattacks hit emergency apps in Ukraine and Russia · 10:48 UTC — Cyberattacks Target Emergency Apps in Ukraine and Russia; Ceasefire Ends in Kherson · Sources: apnews.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Platinum price ▼ 1435.0 -11.6% · -2.4σ
Concentrated producers: South Africa (ZAF) 71% (major)
⛏️ Palladium price ▼ 943.5 -12.4% · -2.3σ
Concentrated producers: Russia (RUS) 44% (major), South Africa (ZAF) 37% (noteworthy)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇺🇸 United States Of America — Iran says Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until blockade ends and demands are met [International Relations] · arabic.cnn.com · also: spanish.almanar.com.lb, intellinews.com
🇪🇭 Western Sahara — As peacekeepers leave Western Sahara, refugees yearn to end a half-century wait [Quality of Life] · scmp.com · also: theprint.in, usnews.com
🇵🇱 Poland — Poland Judicial Coup; Belgium Crisis; UK £10 Billion to Zelensky [Democratic Integrity] · es.euronews.com · also: the-duran.podcast, tsargrad.tv
🇳🇬 Nigeria — “Give Me an AK-47”: Video Shows Nigerian Youths Chanting for Rifles to Kill Christians at Sunday Worship * The Gateway Pundit * by Antonio Graceffo [Internal Social Harmony] · thegatewaypundit.com · also: dailypost.ng, zalebs.com
🇵🇭 Philippines — REEMBERING MAGUINDANAO MASSACRE VICTIMS [Law and Order] · manilatimes.net · also: newsinfo.inquirer.net, philstar.com
🇿🇲 Zambia — Rights group accuses Zambia of violent post-election crackdown on opposition [Democratic Integrity] · abcnews.com · also: sfgate.com, wfmz.com
🇸🇻 El Salvador — El Salvador’s Perilous Military Incursion Into Haiti [International Relations] · worldpoliticsreview.com
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — Ethiopia attacks kill civilians as health system nears collapse, WHO chief says [Quality of Life] · independent.co.uk · also: aa.com.tr, belta.by
Upcoming events to watch
Mid-term assessments: whether events in the next 60 to 90 days are likely to worsen or improve each country's position, and what is driving the call. Countries with no expected change are left out.
Americas
Potentially deteriorating
🇦🇷 Argentina Degrades — baseline Unstable
The upcoming midterm elections in October 2025 could lead to a significant shift in congressional power dynamics, potentially hampering President Milei's ability to govern effectively.
Tensions surrounding IMF negotiations and debt payments may escalate, particularly if political disagreements surface during critical payment periods.
The ongoing political polarization is likely to intensify, especially if election outcomes are contested or lead to further divisions.
Failure to navigate the post-election legislative landscape could result in governance paralysis, exacerbating existing social and economic issues
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic Degrades — baseline Weak
Haiti Border Crisis & Migration Pressure: Increased migration from Haiti is likely to exacerbate existing social tensions and strain resources, potentially leading to unrest.
Internal Governance Challenges: Weak institutional checks on the executive branch may result in governance issues, risking political instability.
Security and Social Tensions: Rising crime rates and sporadic protests could undermine public confidence in the government’s ability to maintain order.
2028 Presidential Succession: The approaching end of Abinader's term may spark political maneuvering that could destabilize the current administration.
🇬🇩 Grenada Degrades — baseline Stable
General Election Timeline: As Grenada approaches its next general election, political tensions may rise, especially if the opposition gains significant momentum. The potential for divisive campaigning could destabilize the current political harmony.
Post-Hurricane Recovery: The effectiveness of recovery efforts from Hurricane Beryl will be crucial. If the government is perceived as failing to adequately address the aftermath, it could lead to dissatisfaction and unrest.
Social Issues: Ongoing concerns about corruption and discrimination may intensify, leading to social unrest and further political challenges. The government's handling of these issues will be under scrutiny, potentially affecting its support base. Overall, while Grenada is currently stable, these factors warrant close attention as they could shape the political environment in the coming years.
🇬🇾 Guyana Degrades — baseline Weak
Ongoing Venezuela Border Tensions: Increased military activities and incidents along the border with Venezuela could escalate tensions, impacting national security and political stability.
Constitutional Reform Uncertainty: The recent election results left the ruling party short of a two-thirds majority needed for constitutional amendments, which may hinder governance and exacerbate political polarization.
Civil Unrest: Recent riots in Georgetown indicate underlying social tensions that could resurface, particularly in response to government actions or social issues.
🇵🇪 Peru Degrades — baseline Weak
The April 2026 general elections are likely to be contentious, given the current political climate and public dissatisfaction with leadership.
Leadership instability, particularly with recent impeachments, could lead to a power vacuum and further governance issues.
The security crisis, especially in urban areas like Lima, may worsen if not adequately addressed, leading to increased public fear and dissatisfaction.
Institutional weaknesses and deep public distrust may hinder effective governance post-elections, perpetuating cycles of instability
Upcoming events section for PRO readers only. Try PRO for a week free here.
Americas: stability and news
The day's news by country, with each country's stability rating
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda (Stable) King Charles III and Queen Camilla were caught in the rain without an umbrella while attending Antigua and Barbuda’s 45th‑anniversary independence celebration, a minor incident that did not affect the nation’s stability [usmagazine.com].
🇦🇷 Argentina (Unstable) The Pope’s visit to Buenos Aires highlighted political tension, as Argentina’s bishops are among President Javier Milei’s staunchest critics and the trip is framed as purely pastoral amid a fraught relationship with the government [Source - Mercopress]. Milei is also courting foreign investment by promoting Argentina as a “regulation‑free” haven for AI data centers, a move that could reshape economic policy but also provoke domestic debate over regulatory oversight [Source - FastCompany][Source - Reason]. [en.mercopress.com] [fastcompany.com]
🇧🇴 Bolivia (Weak) Bolivia posted a robust trade surplus of US$2.24 billion through September, driven by record metal exports of silver, gold and zinc that lifted export revenues sharply in the latest month [riotimesonline.com]. At the same time, imports surged by 68.6% month‑over‑month, especially in raw materials and intermediate goods, pushing total September imports to $1.12 billion [Source - pravdareport.com]. The domestic seed sector also shifted from import dependence to meeting 90% of local demand and exporting to 18 countries, indicating growing agricultural self‑sufficiency [Source - pravdareport.com].
🇧🇷 Brazil (Weak) Brazil’s markets are poised for a pivotal central‑bank decision, with analysts expecting the Selic rate to be held at 13.75% on 4 November and investors watching for any pressure from President Lula’s allies for a cut【 [riotimesonline.com]】. The finance minister has denied rumours of a plan to cap interest rates ahead of the vote, underscoring the government’s effort to avoid market turbulence【】. Meanwhile, political commentary highlights concerns about democratic backsliding in the region, though no direct unrest is reported in Brazil【 [nypost.com]】.
🇨🇦 Canada (Stable) Canada’s markets rose on optimism that a U.S.–Canada trade deal, including the Keystone pipeline, is close to completion, easing a long‑running dispute with Washington [rttnews.com]. At the same time, the government pushed through sweeping immigration and asylum reforms under Bill C‑12, while several western provinces permanently adopted daylight‑saving time, prompting mixed public reactions but no major unrest [globalnews.ca] [arynews.tv].
🇨🇱 Chile (Stable) The Rabat scandal has highlighted deep corruption within Chile’s political establishment and underscored the Chilean left’s role as a key supporter of the embattled Kast government, fueling political instability [Source - wsws.org]. Meanwhile, rising global demand for copper driven by Asia’s AI chip boom is set to offset a projected 8.4% decline in Chile’s 2026 copper output, offering some economic cushioning amid the turmoil [riotimesonline.com].
🇨🇴 Colombia (Stable) An attack on a military base in southern Colombia killed four civilians, including a two‑month‑old infant, raising concerns over security in the region [Source - AP]. The government responded by ordering additional bombings after a truck bomb in Planadas killed four people, indicating an escalation of violence in Huila and Cauca [riotimesonline.com]. Meanwhile, Colombia’s 1,620 MW coal fleet is facing production cuts and liquidity constraints as El Niño drives higher power demand, threatening energy stability [Source - Pravdareport.com].
🇨🇷 Costa Rica (Stable) Banco Nacional’s financial‑literacy drive, which has reached 2.8 million Costa Ricans, is aimed at lowering credit risk and bolstering the banking sector’s stability [Source - pravdareport.com]. A court challenge to the fire department’s direct award of a 6.5 billion‑colón ambulance contract to Brazilian firms raises concerns over procurement transparency but has not yet disrupted public services [Source - pravdareport.com].
🇨🇺 Cuba (Unstable) Cuba’s hospitals are on the brink of collapse as shortages of medicines, medical equipment, food and fuel—exacerbated by U.S. sanctions and an oil crisis—disrupt operations and strain the health system [Source - Times of India]. [timesofindia.indiatimes.com]
🇪🇨 Ecuador (Weak) Ecuador imposed a coastal curfew on 3 November, a measure that could affect public order and local economies [riotimesonline.com]. Meanwhile, shrimp exports surged 42% year‑on‑year in September as Chinese demand rose, offsetting falling export prices and indicating a mixed economic picture [undercurrentnews.com].
🇸🇻 El Salvador (Weak) El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, has ordered troops to intervene in Haiti, insisting the move is not an “invasion,” but the deployment risks sparking domestic backlash and could undermine his political standing [worldpoliticsreview.com].
🇬🇩 Grenada (Stable) Grenada’s population stands at about 117,362 and its economy is valued at roughly US$1.42 billion, with the country maintaining membership in regional bodies such as CARICOM, CELAC and the OAS, underscoring its continued diplomatic engagement in the region [riotimesonline.com].
🇬🇾 Guyana (Weak) Former President Donald Ramotar urged the government to explore nuclear power plants using Guyana’s uranium deposits as a solution to the country’s energy shortages, a proposal that could reshape its energy sector and economic outlook [kaieteurnewsonline.com]. A national study found that one‑third of adults with advanced HIV in Guyana carry asymptomatic opportunistic infections, a factor linked to higher 90‑day mortality and highlighting ongoing public‑health challenges [Source - pravdareport.com].
🇭🇹 Haiti (Unstable) El Salvador announced a military deployment to Haiti, with President Nayib Bukele insisting it is not an “invasion,” a move that could have significant repercussions for regional stability [worldpoliticsreview.com]. American Airlines resumed flights to Haiti after a two‑year suspension caused by gang violence in and around Port‑au‑Prince, signalling a tentative improvement in security conditions [airlinegeeks.com].
🇯🇲 Jamaica (Weak) Jamaican hoteliers are contesting [Source - Booking.com]’s new commission on government taxes, warning that the policy could strain the tourism sector’s profitability and revenue streams [Source - Jamaica Gleaner]. At the same time, the Jamaica Employers’ Federation is urging careful consideration of mandatory mental‑health provisions in workplaces, highlighting growing concerns over employee well‑being that could affect labour relations [Source - Jamaica Gleaner]. Jamaican diaspora leaders in the United States noted that the U.S. mid‑term elections have significant implications for both American democracy and Jamaica’s political and economic ties to the region [Source - Jamaica Gleaner]. [jamaica-gleaner.com]
🇲🇽 Mexico (Weak) Mexico’s trade relationship with the United States entered a new phase as the US declined to renew the USMCA on 1 July, leaving the pact subject to yearly reviews and keeping it in force only until 2036, while state‑run oil company Pemex reported a US$582 million loss, raising concerns over fiscal pressures [riotimesonline.com]. In Puebla, a dispute between the Volkswagen union and the Morena‑led state government led the automaker to cut the Taos production line to a single shift and prompted the government to offer tax incentives to attract other automakers, highlighting tensions in the manufacturing sector [Source - wsws.org]. Meanwhile, the federal education ministry imposed a ban on mobile phones in classrooms starting 3 November, despite parental worries about safety, reflecting growing social friction over youth security policies [indiatoday.intoday.in].
🇵🇦 Panama (Stable) President José Raúl Mulino Quintero received a congratulatory letter from Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, a diplomatic gesture that does not affect Panama’s internal stability [azernews.az].
🇵🇾 Paraguay (Stable) Paraguay’s Senate is set to vote on November 4 on whether to remove Senator Zenaida Delgado over alleged salary kickbacks, a move that could spark political tension if the required 30‑vote threshold is met [Source - Riotimesonline]. Meanwhile, interior truckers staged a peaceful work stoppage on November 2 to protest a more‑than‑50 % rise in diesel prices and demand fair freight rates, highlighting growing discontent over transport costs [Source - Riotimesonline]. The launch of a new shrimp‑processing plant by WOFCO, turning Argentine shrimp into export‑ready products, adds a modest boost to the country’s export sector but is unlikely to affect short‑term stability [Source - Undercurrentnews]. [undercurrentnews.com] [riotimesonline.com]
🇵🇪 Peru (Weak) Peruvian President Dina Boluar and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulations on the 55th anniversary of bilateral ties, underscoring continued diplomatic goodwill between the two nations【 [ecns.cn]】. Rising global demand for AI chips is boosting copper prices, benefitting Peru’s mining sector and supporting economic stability【 [riotimesonline.com]】.
🇱🇨 Saint Lucia (Stable) Saint Lucia is serving as the chair of CARICOM in 2026, a role that underscores its diplomatic prominence in the region. The island also maintains formal relations with Taiwan, highlighting its independent foreign‑policy stance amid regional divisions. [riotimesonline.com]
🇧🇸 The Bahamas (Stable) A Learjet bound for Eleuthera in the Bahamas crashed in Florida, killing all nine aboard, prompting FAA and NTSB investigations but not directly affecting the islands’ internal stability [riotimesonline.com]. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center issued an Atlantic tropical weather outlook indicating potential activity that could impact the Bahamas, underscoring ongoing weather-related risks [hurricane.terrapin.com]. The government is promoting new winter tourism offerings, including additional flights and resort openings, to boost the economy and attract visitors [manilatimes.net].
🇺🇸 United States Of America (Weak) Midterm elections saw high voter turnout and intense partisan campaigning, underscoring domestic political polarization and raising questions about policy continuity ahead of the 2026 cycle [economictimes.indiatimes.com] [thehardtimes.net]. At the same time, the United States announced it will mediate Ukraine‑Russia peace talks in Abu Dhabi, while facing renewed concerns over Russian attacks and a potential shift in Persian Gulf influence toward China, highlighting ongoing foreign‑policy pressures [deccanchronicle.com] [opednews.com].
🇺🇾 Uruguay (Stable) Uruguay’s climate change director warned that the country will bear disproportionate costs from climate impacts and will need greater financing ahead of the UN climate summit, highlighting fiscal pressures linked to environmental challenges. The upcoming papal visit is being framed as a chance to revive Uruguay’s Catholic heritage, a move that could influence social cohesion and domestic politics. [eco-business.com] [timesofindia.indiatimes.com]
🇻🇪 Venezuela (Unstable) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Venezuela’s new foreign minister Oliver Blanco and pressed the administration’s three‑phase plan, demanding further releases of political prisoners and progress on electoral reforms ahead of upcoming elections [Source - Reuters][Source - ManilaTimes]. Opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Caracas, a move framed as a “pivotal moment” that could intensify political contestation ahead of the vote [Source - GatewayPundit]. Meanwhile, North American Blue Energy Partners restarted a key furnace at its Zuata 2 facility in the Orinoco Belt, signaling an effort to sustain oil production despite the country’s broader instability [Source - ManilaTimes]. [riotimesonline.com] [manilatimes.net]
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
