GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the weekend, since Friday's issue
🇮🇶🇺🇸🇮🇷 Drone strike cuts power in Iraqi Kurdistan; Trump confirms Iran blockade · 00:48 UTC — Trump Confirms Iran Blockade as Drone Strike Cuts Power in Iraqi Kurdistan · Sources: aljazeera.com
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇫🇷🇦🇪 Russia strikes Ukraine emergency crews · 17:18 UTC — Russia Targets Emergency Crews in Ukraine; France Joins Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi · Sources: apnews.com
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇦🇪🇫🇷 Europe to join US-mediated Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi · 14:33 UTC — Europe will take part in US-mediated Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, French FM says · Sources: france24.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪🇸🇦 US strikes ship breaching Iran blockade; Houthi missiles hit Aramco · 13:33 UTC — US strikes ship attempting to breach Iran blockade; Houthi missiles hit Aramco building in Saudi Arabia · Sources: dw.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi airstrikes kill 33 near Yemen's capital · 05:48 UTC — Saudi Airstrikes Kill 33 Near Yemen's Capital · Sources: independent.co.uk
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US expands Iran blockade as Tehran lifts missile range limits · 01:48 UTC — US expands Iran blockade with Task Force Iron Gate as Tehran lifts missile range limits · Sources: gulfnews.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Explosions across Iran amid US strikes on Qeshm Island · 00:48 UTC — Explosions Reported Across Iran Amid US Strikes on Qeshm Island and Naval Blockade Enforcement · Sources: jpost.com
Gunman kills six in Krakow square, three more at home · 23:18 UTC — Krakow Terror Attack: Gunman Kills Six in Square, Three More Found at Home · Sources: france24.com
🇮🇷🇾🇪🇺🇸 Iran lifts missile range limit · 15:33 UTC — Iran Lifts Missile Range Limit; Yemen Airstrikes Kill 25; Gaza Floods and U.S. Midterm Shifts · Sources: apnews.com
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia strikes Kyiv energy grid ahead of peace talks · 14:18 UTC — Russia strikes Kyiv energy grid ahead of peace talks · Sources: theguardian.com
🇷🇺🇦🇪 Russia names delegation for Abu Dhabi peace talks · 11:33 UTC — Kremlin Announces Senior Military and Diplomatic Delegation for Abu Dhabi Peace Talks · Sources: jpost.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Houthis report Saudi airstrikes kill 11 in Sanaa · 11:33 UTC — Houthi Media Reports 11 Killed in Saudi Airstrikes on Sanaa · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇺🇦 Missiles strike Kyiv ahead of peace talks · 09:48 UTC — Missiles Strike Kyiv Ahead of Peace Talks; Death Toll Rises in Komyshuvakha · Sources: apnews.com
🇫🇷 France prepares for mass protests ahead of 2027 election · 08:33 UTC — France Prepares for Mass Protests and Yellow Vest 'Disobedience' Ahead of 2027 Election · Source: AFP
🌾 Rice price up 3.2% vs its 28-day baseline (+2.3 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Rice (exports) — ZR=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy).
🛢️ Crude oil price down 7.8% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.4 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Crude oil (production) — BZ=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes.
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇦🇪 Russian missile strike on Kyiv injures two · 06:18 UTC — Russian Missile Strike on Kyiv Injures Two Ahead of Abu Dhabi Peace Talks · Sources: aljazeera.com
🇺🇸 Armed suspect arrested near White House, alleged Trump assassination intent · 01:18 UTC — Suspect arrested near White House with firearms and alleged Trump assassination intent · Sources: theguardian.com
🇺🇸 Suspect arrested near White House over alleged Trump assassination plot · 01:03 UTC — Suspect Arrested Near White House for Alleged Trump Assassination Plot · Sources: cbsnews.com
Zelenskyy demands written security guarantees ahead of peace talks · 13:48 UTC — Zelenskyy Demands Written Security Guarantees as War Casualties Rise and Peace Talks Loom · Sources: apnews.com
🇹🇿 Tanzania opposition leader Lissu sentenced to prison · 13:03 UTC — Tanzanian Opposition Leader Lissu Acquitted of Treason, Sentenced to Prison in Broader African Crackdown on Critics · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇱 Golan alleges Netanyahu attempting coup amid coalition talks · 10:33 UTC — Golan Alleges Netanyahu Attempting Coup, Warns of Security Threats Amid Coalition Talks · Sources: jpost.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Copper price (mining · HG=F daily settlement) ▼ 6.32 -4.6% · -2.7σ
⛏️ Copper price (smelting/refining · HG=F daily settlement) ▼ 6.32 -4.6% · -2.7σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 48% (major)
🍫 Cocoa price (beans · CC=F daily settlement) ▼ 5155.0 -7.7% · -2.6σ
Concentrated producers: Cote d'Ivoire (CIV) 38% (noteworthy)
🌾 Soybeans price (exports · ZS=F daily settlement) ▼ 1196.5 -4.6% · -2.3σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 58% (major), United States (USA) 28% (noteworthy)
🛢️ Crude oil price (production · BZ=F daily settlement) ▼ 96.74 -8.6% · -2.1σ
🌾 Rice price (exports · ZR=F daily settlement) ▲ 17.84 +2.9% · +2.1σ
Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the weekend, since Friday's issue — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇮🇷 Iran — Iran warns missile response to new attack could extend to Europe [International Relations] · middleeasteye.net · also: matzav.com, lenta.ru
🇸🇾 Syria — A deadly raid tests a revolutionary town’s faith in Syria's new government [Law and Order] · middleeasteye.net · also: es.abna24.com, english.aawsat.com
Global Stability Ratings
| Americas | |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda: Stable | 🇭🇹 Haiti: Unstable |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina: Unstable | 🇭🇳 Honduras: Unstable |
| 🇧🇧 Barbados: Stable | 🇯🇲 Jamaica: Weak |
| 🇧🇿 Belize: Stable | 🇲🇽 Mexico: Weak |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia: Weak | 🇳🇮 Nicaragua: Unstable |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil: Weak | 🇵🇦 Panama: Stable |
| 🇨🇦 Canada: Stable | 🇵🇾 Paraguay: Stable |
| 🇨🇱 Chile: Stable | 🇵🇪 Peru: Weak |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia: Stable | 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis: Stable |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica: Stable | 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia: Stable |
| 🇨🇺 Cuba: Unstable | 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Stable |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica: Weak | 🇸🇷 Suriname: Weak |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic: Weak | 🇧🇸 The Bahamas: Stable |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador: Weak | 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago: Weak |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador: Weak | 🇺🇸 United States Of America: Weak |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada: Stable | 🇺🇾 Uruguay: Stable |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala: Unstable | 🇻🇪 Venezuela: Unstable |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana: Weak | |
| Europe | |
| 🇦🇱 Albania: Stable | 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Highly Stable |
| 🇦🇩 Andorra: Stable | 🇲🇰 Macedonia: Weak |
| 🇦🇹 Austria: Stable | 🇲🇹 Malta: Stable |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus: Unstable | 🇲🇩 Moldova: Weak |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium: Weak | 🇲🇨 Monaco: Highly Stable |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina: Weak | 🇲🇪 Montenegro: Weak |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria: Weak | 🇳🇱 Netherlands: Stable |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia: Stable | 🇳🇴 Norway: Highly Stable |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus: Weak | 🇵🇱 Poland: Stable |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic: Stable | 🇵🇹 Portugal: Stable |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark: Stable | 🇷🇴 Romania: Stable |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia: Stable | 🇷🇺 Russia: Unstable |
| 🇫🇮 Finland: Stable | 🇸🇲 San Marino: Stable |
| 🇫🇷 France: Stable | 🇷🇸 Serbia: Weak |
| 🇩🇪 Germany: Stable | 🇸🇰 Slovakia: Stable |
| 🇬🇷 Greece: Stable | 🇸🇮 Slovenia: Stable |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary: Stable | 🇪🇸 Spain: Stable |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland: Stable | 🇸🇪 Sweden: Stable |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland: Weak | 🇨🇭 Switzerland: Stable |
| 🇮🇹 Italy: Stable | 🇹🇷 Turkey: Weak |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia: Weak | 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Unstable |
| 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein: Stable | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Stable |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Stable | |
| MENA | |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain: Weak | 🇱🇾 Libya: Unstable |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt: Unstable | 🇴🇲 Oman: Weak |
| 🇮🇷 Iran: Weak | 🇶🇦 Qatar: Weak |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq: Weak | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Weak |
| 🇮🇱 Israel: Weak | 🇸🇾 Syria: Critically Unstable |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan: Weak | 🇹🇳 Tunisia: Weak |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait: Weak | 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates: Weak |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon: Unstable | 🇾🇪 Yemen: Critically Unstable |
| Asia | |
| 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: Critically Unstable | 🇲🇻 Maldives: Weak |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia: Weak | 🇲🇳 Mongolia: Stable |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Unstable | 🇲🇲 Myanmar: Critically Unstable |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Weak | 🇳🇵 Nepal: Weak |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan: Weak | 🇰🇵 North Korea: Critically Unstable |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei: Stable | 🇵🇰 Pakistan: Weak |
| 🇰🇭 Cambodia: Unstable | 🇵🇭 Philippines: Weak |
| 🇨🇳 China: Weak | 🇸🇬 Singapore: Stable |
| 🇹🇱 East Timor: Stable | 🇰🇷 South Korea: Stable |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia: Unstable | 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: Weak |
| 🇮🇳 India: Weak | 🇹🇼 Taiwan: Stable |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Weak | 🇹🇯 Tajikistan: Unstable |
| 🇯🇵 Japan: Stable | 🇹🇭 Thailand: Weak |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: Weak | 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan: Unstable |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan: Weak | 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Weak |
| 🇱🇦 Laos: Unstable | 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Stable |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia: Weak | |
| Oceania | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia: Stable | 🇵🇼 Palau: Stable |
| 🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia: Weak | 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea: Weak |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji: Weak | 🇼🇸 Samoa: Weak |
| 🇰🇮 Kiribati: Weak | 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands: Unstable |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands: Stable | 🇹🇴 Tonga: Weak |
| 🇳🇷 Nauru: Weak | 🇹🇻 Tuvalu: Stable |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand: Stable | 🇻🇺 Vanuatu: Weak |
| Africa | |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria: Unstable | 🇲🇼 Malawi: Weak |
| 🇦🇴 Angola: Unstable | 🇲🇱 Mali: Unstable |
| 🇧🇯 Benin: Weak | 🇲🇷 Mauritania: Unstable |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana: Stable | 🇲🇺 Mauritius: Stable |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso: Unstable | 🇲🇦 Morocco: Weak |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi: Unstable | 🇲🇿 Mozambique: Weak |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon: Unstable | 🇳🇦 Namibia: Stable |
| 🇨🇻 Cape Verde: Stable | 🇳🇪 Niger: Weak |
| 🇨🇫 Central African Republic: Unstable | 🇳🇬 Nigeria: Unstable |
| 🇹🇩 Chad: Unstable | 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo: Weak |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros: Unstable | 🇷🇼 Rwanda: Weak |
| 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo: Unstable | 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe: Stable |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti: Weak | 🇸🇳 Senegal: Stable |
| 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea: Unstable | 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone: Weak |
| 🇪🇷 Eritrea: Unstable | 🇸🇴 Somalia: Unstable |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini: Weak | 🇿🇦 South Africa: Weak |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia: Unstable | 🇸🇸 South Sudan: Critically Unstable |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon: Unstable | 🇸🇩 Sudan: Unstable |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana: Weak | 🇹🇿 Tanzania: Stable |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea: Unstable | 🇬🇲 The Gambia: Weak |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau: Unstable | 🇹🇬 Togo: Unstable |
| 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: Weak | 🇺🇬 Uganda: Weak |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya: Weak | 🇪🇭 Western Sahara: Weak |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho: Unstable | 🇿🇲 Zambia: Weak |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia: Unstable | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: Unstable |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar: Unstable | |
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
