Archived post from legacy Decis reporting

Good morning.

Welcome to the SITREP for February 7, 2024

As a reminder, SITREPs covers the comparative stability of the select countries, comparing current events over the last ~72 hours to the country's baseline stability assessment (i.e. what's 'normal'). That way, you can put events into context and determine if you need to take action — or seize an opportunity — in the short term.

I just added a new batch of countries to the system, meaning there are now 33 countries being assessed. The aim is to hit 100 by the end of Q1.

If there’s a country you’re particularly interested in, let me know, and I’ll add them to the list.

(It takes 10-14 days to gather and assess sufficient data to run an analysis on a country, so these new locations won’t show up in the reports for a week or so. I am working on a way to accelerate that so I may be able to start adding these new locations by the end of next week.)

DCDR users, you’ll see the background reports in the country assessments list when you next log in.

(Note: DCDR's analysis engine generates these reports and conditions apply. See the footer for more.)

These assessments compare the baseline stability rating of a country to events over the reporting period to determine the current situation. Report covers Feb 03 2024 to Feb 06 2024

Baseline stability rating: Algeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Algeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Contributing events that inform this assessment are Political protests, Security force deployment, and Economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Argentina is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Argentina is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Passage of controversial reform bill, economic challenges for SMEs, President's announcement on embassy move, and regional climate crisis

Baseline stability rating: Brazil is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Brazil is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Health emergency in Rio de Janeiro, foreign investment slump, fiscal concerns, military reinforcement at border

Baseline stability rating: China is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in China is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased tensions with Japan and Australia, severe weather affecting travel, heightened international scrutiny and criticism, and economic concerns

Baseline stability rating: Democratic Republic of the Congo is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ambush of SANDF helicopter, political questioning of Air Force capabilities, injuries to SANDF members, and potential for scapegoating of foreigners during elections

Baseline stability rating: Egypt is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Egypt is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Escalating Israel-Gaza conflict with potential spillover effects, demands for ransom from Palestinians, and regional diplomatic efforts

Baseline stability rating: France is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in France is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Knife attack, controversial referendum, diplomatic tensions with Russia, international security concerns

Baseline stability rating: Kenya is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Kenya is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Cult leader charged with multiple murders, wave of murders and rapes prompting protests, and gas explosion suspect in court

Baseline stability rating: Mexico is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Mexico is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased political tensions and border control disputes, violent incidents in southern Mexico, and ongoing discussions on migration and border security in the US

Baseline stability rating: Nigeria is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Nigeria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Kidnapping of 35 wedding guests, increased dollar volumes, and mixed sentiments ahead of AFCON match

Baseline stability rating: Poland is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Poland is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased military cooperation with neighboring countries, potential impact of new Russian sanctions, and involvement of Polish mercenary in international conflict

Baseline stability rating: Saudi Arabia is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Saudi Arabia is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased international defense cooperation and arms technology displays, heightened regional security concerns, and high-level military visits

Baseline stability rating: South Africa is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in South Africa is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: High alert after mass food poisoning, tensions ahead of soccer match, and international cricket performance

Baseline stability rating: Sudan is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Sudan is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Ethnic cleansing declaration, cross-border violence, starvation, telecom disruption, coup attempt, child deaths

Baseline stability rating: Syria is Critically Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Syria is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, condemnation from regional actors, potential for wider conflict, drone attacks on US base, international diplomatic tensions, UN Security Council meeting

Baseline stability rating: Ukraine is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Ukraine is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Multiple deadly attacks in Russian-occupied areas, international arms support dynamics, political maneuvering, and potential military leadership changes

Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Intensified US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets, threats of Houthi retaliation, Red Sea ship attacks, and political instability with the sacking of the prime minister

Baseline stability rating: Singapore is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Singapore is more calm than usual

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased security measures after chopper-wielding assailant incident, ongoing legal disputes, economic concerns, and minor public health advisory

Baseline stability rating: India is Stable.

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in India is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diverse international engagements and strategic partnerships, successful sports performance, economic investments, and geopolitical developments

Baseline stability rating: Switzerland is Highly Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Switzerland is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Increased police capabilities, concerns over child welfare, financial sector scrutiny, and positive market performance

Baseline stability rating: United Arab Emirates is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in United Arab Emirates is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Diplomatic engagements in support of humanitarian causes, defense industry cooperation, and international aid allocation

Baseline stability rating: Vietnam is Stable

Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Vietnam is consistent with the baseline assessment

Recent events contributing to this evaluation include: Stable trade relations with S. Korea, efforts to promote cashless payments, and anticipation of electricity price surge

--End of Report--

Tomorrow’s report is a deep dive into rare earth minerals (REMs) and some of the issues associated with these essential elements, as a surprising number of companies will have exposure to these in their supply chain.

China dominates rare earth minerals as a whole, although some minerals are highly concentrated in a single country, e.g, cobalt in the DRC. These concentrations make supply chain diversification difficult and mean that events of a small number of countries have an outsized effect on the world’s access to these essential elements.

Moreover, there are significant challenges with any kind of extractives or mining, from the rights of indigenous peoples through conflict to labor practices and child exploitation, so the sector faces a range of issues.

That’s what Thursday’s report tackles, along with suggestions for how companies can think about and address these issues, no matter where REMs fall into their supply chain.

Plus, it includes a framework policy that addresses many of the labor, community and human rights issues that mining faces in a number of locations.

That’s something you can adapt and incorporate into your own practices to tackle these issues.

I’m looking forward to sharing it with you.

(If you missed it, yesterday’s report contained mid-term assessments of three of the main suppliers of REMs: Brazil, China, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.)

All the best

~Andrew