This is a preliminary assessment and investigation after the preceding alert, to provide additional context. Issues can be fast moving and facts can change, so please conduct your own research before making any critical decisions.

Iraq Intensifies Independent Airstrikes Against ISIS Following U.S. Withdrawal

Spot report following alert: Iraq steps up airstrikes against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) after U.S. military withdrawal, 12 October 2026. Original alert

Situation

The U.S. completed its full military withdrawal from Iraq on 30 September 2026, ending Operation Inherent Resolve, the coalition campaign launched in 2014 to defeat ISIS. Iraq then stepped up its own air operations against the group. Iraqi F-16 jets have struck ISIS hideouts in Diyala, Salah ad-Din, and the Hamrin Mountains without U.S. close air support.

This is a real break from the pattern set after 2017. Since ISIS lost its territory, Iraqi counter-terrorism operations leaned consistently on U.S. targeting, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and strike coordination. Iraq now flies these missions without that integration. A bilateral security partnership still provides intelligence and ISR support, and formal strike-sharing protocols are being negotiated.

ISIS attack claims fell from 1,459 in 2020 to 16 in 2025. A modest resurgence in Kirkuk and the disputed territories coincided with the withdrawal. Iraq's baseline stability is assessed as weak, compounded by Kurdish tensions, Iranian strikes, and economic strain. No confirmed independent Iraqi cross-border strikes into Syria have been reported.

Sources

1. decis-alert-feed/tripwire, 2026-10-12
2. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk, congress.gov, washingtoninstitute.org, 2026-10-12
3. en.wikipedia.org, media.defense.gov, en.wikipedia.org, 2026-10-12
4. jpost.com, 2026-10-08
5. yahoo.com, breakingdefense.com, en.wikipedia.org, 2026-10-12
6. specialeurasia.com, en.wikipedia.org, researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk, 2026-10-12
7. Decis country stability assessment

Produced by the Decis Intelligence AI-powered analysis workflow. For information only - not investment or security advice; forward-looking judgments are inherently uncertain. AI can make mistakes so check all facts and assumptions before using this report in your decision-making.