GM, here’s the latest from Decis Intelligence.
Two stories yesterday felt noteworthy. First was the sinking of two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz which felt normalized. The news passed with little fanfare and there was little to no obvious response from the US.
Second was the apparent throttling of Starlink services over Ukraine alongside the alleged suspension of US intelligence sharing which resulted in a deadly attacks in Kyiv and Lutsk. This is against the backdrop of last week's easing of sanctions against Russian diesel, a welcome financial lifeline for Moscow.
From the FT's correspondent in Kyiv
Relations between Washington and Kyiv are back at a low point with more room to go: Zelensky is unlikely to accept any of Trump's demands to stop strikes while Russia is hitting Ukrainian power plants and receiving sanctions relief from Washington. This places Ukraine in a precarious position and will encourage more Russian aggression and hybrid operations in Europe (see SITREP October 8 for more).
Occasionally I will share things that I think might be of interest to this audience. This isn't a paid promotion
People joke that negotiating with terrorists is easier than negotiating with toddlers but I only know one person who can really answer this question. My dear friend Liz Grim is an expert in counter terrorism and international relations, Professor at Georgetown, and a mom of three great kids* who helped put these theories to the test. And, like any good academic, she's written up her findings.
"Mama Strangelove applies deterrence, brinkmanship, counterinsurgency, and hostage negotiation to the daily chaos of raising children, from newborn nights through the teenage years: the four-year-old who has correctly assessed that your threats are not credible, the bedtime ceasefire that collapses at 11 p.m. As Grimm puts it, every morning is Saigon in 1975."
It's a great book and sounds like just the kind of thing an audience of geopolitical afficionados might want to pick up (or gift for the holidays). You can read more and order your copy here MamaStrangelove.com The Kindle version is out now and you can preorder the paperback which comes out on November 3rd.
(*Despite the stories in the book, I promise, they are great kids.)
Have something you think would benefit the SITREPs audience? Drop me a note.
Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian refineries after failed ceasefire · 08:33 UTC — Ukraine Resumes Strikes on Russian Refineries Following Failed 'Energy Ceasefire' and Starlink Restrictions · Sources: cnbc.com
⛏️ Primary aluminum price down 6.8% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.2 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Primary aluminum (smelting) — ALI=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major).
Oil prices drop amid Strait of Hormuz attack, IEA warning · 05:18 UTC — Oil Prices Drop Amid Strait of Hormuz Attack and IEA Warning · Sources: cnbc.com
El Salvador plans to release up to half of 90,000 detainees · 23:48 UTC — Bukele Plans to Release Up to 50% of 90,000 Detainees Under State of Emergency · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran warns US strikes inevitable amid Hormuz tensions · 19:33 UTC — Iran Warns of Inevitable US Strikes Amid Escalating Tensions in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: jpost.com
🇮🇷 Two container ships sink near Strait of Hormuz · 17:48 UTC — Two Container Ships Sink Near Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iranian Attacks · Sources: theguardian.com
Strait of Hormuz attacks reach highest level since war began · 17:18 UTC — Attacks in Strait of Hormuz Reach Highest Level Since War Began · Source: AFP
🇮🇷 Container ship GFS Pride sinks in Strait of Hormuz · 16:33 UTC — Container Ship GFS Pride Sinks in Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iranian Attacks · Sources: cnbc.com
🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 Russian attack on Kyiv kills one, injures 20 · 16:18 UTC — Russian Attack on Kyiv Kills One, Injures 20 Days After Trump's Energy Ceasefire · Sources: euronews.com
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Two ships damaged in Strait of Hormuz attacks · 12:18 UTC — Two Ships Damaged in Strait of Hormuz Attacks Amid Escalating US-Iran Conflict · Source: AFP
🇾🇪🇸🇦 Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalate amid ceasefire outreach · 11:03 UTC — Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Escalate as Diplomatic Outreach for Ceasefire Emerges · Sources: apnews.com
🇮🇷 Iran reports ship sinking in Strait of Hormuz · 10:48 UTC — Iran Reports Ship Sinking in Strait of Hormuz, Gaza Strike Kills Woman, and Execution in Iran · Sources: apnews.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇵🇱 Poland — Winter of the Crow: this taut escape thriller explores life under martial law in cold war Poland [Law and Order] · theguardian.com · also: aol.co.uk, lb.ua
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — The 'huge problem' Saudi Arabia faces in its conflict with the Houthis in Yemen [International Relations] · abc.net.au · also: theconversation.com, alquds.co.uk
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — Yemen’s Houthis are bringing their war to Saudi Arabia – and reframing the narrative of being an Iranian proxy [International Relations] · dailysabah.com · also: theconversation.com
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — Houthis Launch More Missiles, Saudi Oil Company Headquarters Heavily Damaged [International Relations] · hindustantimes.com · also: jagran.com, indiatv.in
🇵🇰 Pakistan — Why Asim Munir's plan to 'split' up Pakistan may spell the end of civilian govt [Political Equilibrium] · timesofindia.indiatimes.com · also: jagran.com, moneycontrol.com
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo — Kabila leads new rebel coalition seeking to oust Tshisekedi – Zambia: News Diggers! [Political Equilibrium] · aljazeera.com · also: saharareporters.com, tuko.co.ke
🇾🇪 Yemen — Yemen fighting overwhelms hospitals, cuts aid to 800,000 people, relief agencies say [Quality of Life] · al-monitor.com · also: sg.news.yahoo.com, alkhaleejonline.net
🇾🇪 Yemen — Yemen hospitals overwhelmed by surge in war casualties, Red Cross warns [Quality of Life] · al-monitor.com
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
🌾 Maize price (exports · ZC=F daily settlement) ▼ 479.0 -7.6% · -2.6σ
🌾 Rice price (exports · ZR=F daily settlement) ▲ 17.26 +5.4% · +2.3σ
Concentrated producers: India (IND) 35% (noteworthy)
⛏️ Primary aluminum price (smelting · ALI=F daily settlement) ▼ 3086.25 -6.8% · -2.2σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 59% (major)
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
