In partnership with
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Tuesday and Thursday saw a series of bomb threats across Europe with 30 flights disrupted. There is no evidence that these were coordinated events but the numbers are too high to be mere coincidence. Russia would be the prime suspect but even without a clear agitator, these events come close on the heels of the supermarket cyber attacks we covered on Tuesday.
As the old saying goes, ‘two is coincidence, three is a pattern’ so anything unusual happening in the next week or so starts to point towards a longer term ‘below the threshold’ campaign in Europe this winter.
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Critical alerts
Tripwire notifications from the last 24 hours
🇮🇷🇮🇳🇨🇳🇶🇦 Iran exempts India, China, Qatar, Iraq from Hormuz restrictions · 06:48 UTC — Iran Exempts India, China, Qatar, and Iraq from Strait of Hormuz Restrictions Amid US Blockade · Sources: aljazeera.com
🍫 Cocoa price down 5.0% vs its 28-day baseline (-2.3 sigma) · 06:45 UTC — Tracked metric: the price of Cocoa (beans) — CC=F daily settlement. The figures are prices, not volumes. Concentrated producers: Cote d'Ivoire (CIV) 38% (noteworthy).
🇺🇸🇷🇺 Trump teases 'big agreement' after meeting Putin envoy on Oleshky ceasefire · 05:03 UTC — Trump Teases 'Big Agreement' After Meeting Putin Envoy at Oleshky Ceasefire Event · Sources: independent.co.uk
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump threatens Iran strikes amid peace talks · 23:03 UTC — Trump 'locked and loaded' for Iran strikes amid peace talks and midterm defeat · Sources: hindustantimes.com
🇳🇬 Nigeria rejects ceasefire with Boko Haram and ISWAP · 18:48 UTC — Nigeria Rejects Ceasefire with Boko Haram and ISWAP · Sources: straitstimes.com
🇲🇲 Myanmar junta intensifies airstrikes on civilians in Rakhine State · 18:48 UTC — Myanmar Junta Intensifies Airstrikes on Civilians in Rakhine State · Sources: france24.com
🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russia envoy speaks at White House on Oleshky ceasefire · 16:33 UTC — Putin's Envoy Speaks at White House on Oleshky Ceasefire Brokered by Melania Trump · Sources: apnews.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Houthis claim Saudi airstrikes killed 7 in Yemen · 16:18 UTC — Houthis Claim Saudi Airstrikes Killed 7 in Yemen; Coalition Reports Missile Intercept · Sources: timesofisrael.com
🇮🇷 Tanker struck in Persian Gulf; Iran claims Hormuz mine strikes · 12:48 UTC — Tanker Struck in Persian Gulf; Iran Claims Mine Strikes in Strait of Hormuz · Sources: apnews.com
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi coalition intercepts Houthi missile; Houthis demand $51 billion for ceasefire · 11:18 UTC — Saudi Coalition Intercepts Houthi Missile; Houthis Demand $51 Billion for Ceasefire · Sources: timesofisrael.com
Big movers
Countries moving beyond their normal range — last 3 days vs their 28-day baseline
No country is moving beyond its normal variability.
Commodities
Watchlist prices vs their 28-day baseline — same ruler as the country movers
⛏️ Copper price (mining · HG=F daily settlement) ▼ 6.2 -4.0% · -3.1σ
⛏️ Copper price (smelting/refining · HG=F daily settlement) ▼ 6.2 -4.0% · -3.1σ
Concentrated producers: China (CHN) 48% (major)
🛢️ Diesel price (refined products, exports · HO=F daily settlement) ▼ 4.38 -6.6% · -2.7σ
🌾 Soybeans price (exports · ZS=F daily settlement) ▼ 1190.0 -4.7% · -2.7σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 58% (major), United States (USA) 28% (noteworthy)
🍬 Sugar price (exports · SB=F daily settlement) ▼ 18.56 -8.7% · -2.6σ
Concentrated producers: Brazil (BRA) 44% (major)
🍫 Cocoa price (beans · CC=F daily settlement) ▼ 5181.0 -5.0% · -2.3σ
Concentrated producers: Cote d'Ivoire (CIV) 38% (noteworthy)
Headline events
Noteworthy events from the last 24 hours — may not be reflected in the ratings yet
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — Saudi Arabia places more weapons at disposal of its mercenaries [Law and Order] · arabic.euronews.com · also: alsyasiah.ye, invezz.com
🇧🇩 Bangladesh — Bangladesh's ousted premier Hasina tells the AP she will return from exile in December at any cost [Democratic Integrity] · economictimes.indiatimes.com · also: news4jax.com, rutlandherald.com
🇨🇫 Central African Republic — Wagner Mining in Central African Republic [Law and Order] · riotimesonline.com · also: ghananewsonline.com.gh, stock3.com
🇵🇾 Paraguay — Paraguay faces biggest-ever banking crisis, over 3 million customers hit [Economic Resilience] · indiatoday.in
Upcoming events to watch
Mid-term assessments: whether events in the next 60 to 90 days are likely to worsen or improve each country's position, and what is driving the call.
Africa
Potentially deteriorating
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso Degrades — baseline Unstable
The jihadist insurgency is expected to escalate further, leading to more violence and displacement.
Extended military rule may result in governance issues and public dissatisfaction.
Deepening ties with Russia could provoke responses from Western nations, complicating foreign relations.
The worsening humanitarian crisis and regional isolation will exacerbate social tensions and hinder recovery efforts.
🇹🇩 Chad Degrades — baseline Unstable
The proposed constitutional changes in October 2025 are likely to be met with significant opposition and could incite widespread protests, further destabilizing the political landscape.
The suppression of political opposition, including the imprisonment of key leaders, is a clear sign of authoritarian governance that may lead to civil unrest and a push for democratic reforms.
Cross-border security threats from Sudan and the resulting refugee influx will strain Chad's already limited resources and could exacerbate existing tensions.
Ongoing internal insurgency and violence, particularly in the southern and eastern regions, will continue to pose serious challenges to security and governance, leading to a further decline in stability.
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea Degrades — baseline Unstable
Succession Tensions: The potential for conflict during the power transition from Obiang to Teodorín could lead to significant political instability.
Economic Decline: As oil production continues to decline, the resulting economic strain could fuel public discontent and challenge the regime's authority.
Russian Security Presence: While intended to bolster security, the reliance on foreign military support may signal weakness and provoke further unrest.
International Isolation: Increasing diplomatic isolation and scrutiny could undermine the regime's stability and provoke internal dissent
🇬🇭 Ghana Degrades — baseline Weak
Electoral Tensions: The upcoming 2024 presidential election is likely to escalate political tensions, with the potential for violence and disputes over results, reminiscent of past electoral challenges.
Economic Pressures: The new administration's reform agenda post-2025 may lead to social unrest due to differing impacts on various groups, despite Ghana's strong democratic history.
Regional Security Issues: Instability in neighboring countries poses a risk of spillover effects, particularly in areas with existing ethnic or political tensions.
Policy Uncertainty: The approach to governance and economic management after the 2024 elections could lead to uncertainty and dissatisfaction among the populace. These factors suggest a potential decline in stability if not managed carefully.
🇱🇷 Liberia Degrades — baseline Unstable
Leadership Crisis in the House of Representatives: This ongoing crisis threatens the stability of governance and could lead to legislative gridlock, undermining effective governance.
Establishment of a War Crimes Court: While this could improve the rule of law, it may also provoke political backlash and social unrest, particularly if perceived as targeting specific groups.
2029 Presidential and Legislative Elections: The strengthening of opposition parties may lead to heightened political tensions as the elections approach, especially if there are allegations of unfair practices.
Drug Seizures and National Security Alerts: Increasing drug-related issues could strain law enforcement resources and heighten security concerns, impacting public safety and confidence in governance
🇳🇦 Namibia Degrades — baseline Stable
The leadership transition to Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as Namibia's first female president could be a double-edged sword; while it represents progress, any missteps during the transition could lead to instability.
Legal challenges from opposition parties regarding the 2024 election results may stir political tensions, even if they are ultimately resolved peacefully.
Regional and local authority elections in 2025 will test SWAPO's grip on power, and any significant losses could embolden opposition and create governance challenges.
Economic and social pressures, particularly high unemployment and income inequality, are likely to escalate public dissatisfaction and challenge the government's stability if not addressed effectively.
🇿🇦 South Africa Degrades — baseline Weak
Tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU): Conflicts among coalition partners over key legislation could lead to governance issues and weakened political cohesion.
Economic challenges from the national budget and US tariffs: Potential economic strain from budgetary conflicts and unfavorable trade conditions may trigger political unrest.
International scrutiny from the G20 Summit: While hosting the G20 could enhance South Africa's global standing, it also risks exposing internal issues to a wider audience, possibly leading to embarrassment or loss of credibility.
Regional instability and domestic discontent: Ongoing regional conflicts and high unemployment may exacerbate societal tensions, increasing the likelihood of protests and further instability
🇸🇩 Sudan Degrades — baseline Unstable
The ongoing civil war is expected to escalate further, leading to more civilian casualties and displacement, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
The RSF's territorial advances may provoke stronger military responses, increasing conflict intensity.
Failed peace efforts and the uncertainty surrounding new proposals will likely prolong instability and suffering.
The UN sanctions vote could either tighten or loosen international control over the conflict, but the overall effect will be minimal in the face of internal chaos.
🇹🇬 Togo Degrades — baseline Unstable
The constitutional overhaul planned for March 2024 is likely to provoke significant backlash, as it undermines democratic processes and could lead to widespread protests against perceived authoritarianism.
The ongoing jihadist insurgency poses a serious security threat that could escalate, particularly if the government is seen as unable to manage the situation effectively.
The domestic opposition movements are gaining momentum, and their demands for political reform could lead to heightened tensions and civil unrest.
Geopolitical realignment with potentially hostile foreign influences may alienate Togo from traditional allies, further complicating its political landscape. These factors indicate a convergence of internal and external pressures that could severely impact Togo's stability in the near future.
🇪🇭 Western Sahara Degrades — baseline Weak
The renewal of the MINURSO mandate and affirmation of Morocco's Autonomy Plan may provide a temporary framework for dialogue, but without genuine commitment from both sides, this could lead to further frustration and conflict.
Intensified mediation efforts by the UN envoy could offer hope for resolution, but past experiences suggest that without strong backing from major powers, these efforts may falter.
Mixed signals from the U.S. and Europe regarding their positions on Western Sahara could embolden hardline stances from both Morocco and the Polisario Front.
The ongoing diplomatic deadlock and lack of progress toward a political solution are likely to exacerbate tensions and lead to increased instability in the region.
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Africa: stability and news
The day's news by country, with each country's stability rating
🇧🇼 Botswana (Stable) Former President Ian Khama’s recent remarks about who he is “speaking for” have sparked debate over his continued political influence and its implications for Botswana’s internal stability [diggers.news].
🇧🇮 Burundi (Unstable) Burundi announced a 30‑man provisional squad for its upcoming double‑header against Zambia, indicating continued focus on national football activities [diggers.news].
🇨🇫 Central African Republic (Unstable) A local report claims that Wagner mercenaries operate a secret mine at Chary in the Central African Republic, a claim not backed by official sources but noted in US and UN documents linking Wagner to mining activities in the country. The presence of a private military contractor in resource extraction could exacerbate tensions and undermine state authority. [riotimesonline.com]
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo (Unstable) The Congolese government gazetted an amendment to the United Nations sanctions regulation for the country, updating the legal framework governing sanctions measures [info.gov.hk]. At the same time, a British healthcare worker who contracted Ebola while on a humanitarian mission in the DRC was evacuated to the United Kingdom for treatment, highlighting ongoing public‑health challenges [bbc.co.uk] [rt.com].
🇪🇹 Ethiopia (Unstable) Ethiopia’s diplomatic ties with Sudan deteriorated as both countries expelled each other’s consular staff amid accusations that Addis Ababa was allowing the Rapid Support Forces to launch drones from its territory and was supporting Sudanese rebels [Source - RT][Source - France 24]. The renewed internal conflict has displaced thousands of civilians, worsening food insecurity for families fleeing the fighting [Source - France 24]. Despite these security challenges, Ethiopia’s economy was re‑estimated at $210.7 billion, moving it to Africa’s fifth‑largest economy after a statistical rebasing [Source - VentureBurn]. [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] [ventureburn.com]
🇬🇦 Gabon (Unstable) No significant events affecting Gabon's stability were reported in the provided material. [manilatimes.net]
🇬🇳 Guinea (Unstable) Guinea’s failure to make the first payment on a World Bank‑backed arbitration case has prompted UAE‑based Axis International to file a memorial asserting a US$29 billion claim, underscoring mounting financial and legal pressures on the country’s stability [manilatimes.net].
🇰🇪 Kenya (Weak) A collapsed building in Nairobi claimed five lives after additional bodies were recovered, underscoring ongoing safety concerns in the capital [Source - NYPost]. Meanwhile, South African footballers are traveling to a training camp ahead of upcoming matches against Kenya, a routine sports development with no direct impact on stability [Source - TheSouthAfrican]. [thesouthafrican.com] [nypost.com]
🇲🇺 Mauritius (Stable) Mauritius‑based investment firm Soach Global’s founder Anubhav Dayal, who recently sold part of his NSE holdings at a 25‑fold return, won third prize in SEBI’s Manthan Ideathon for proposing a virtual food‑grain asset, highlighting ongoing entrepreneurial activity in the country [thehindubusinessline.com].
🇲🇦 Morocco (Weak) Morocco’s political landscape shifted as Fatima Ezzahra Mansouri became the country’s first woman leader, a symbolic move that grants her limited authority but signals a potential re‑balancing of power within the government [foreignpolicy.com]. Security concerns rose after Spanish authorities in the Ceuta enclave arrested three migrants for trafficking, drugging and rape, reflecting heightened crime rates linked to recent illegal crossings [rt.com]. Meanwhile, tax officials launched an investigation into fuel‑station revenue discrepancies amid soaring fuel prices, prompting retailer protests and adding economic pressure to the domestic climate [Source - pravdareport.com].
🇲🇿 Mozambique (Weak) Mozambique’s government announced a multi‑billion‑dollar transport investment plan, but the country’s existing roads and bridges are in severe disrepair, highlighting a gap between ambitious spending promises and deteriorating infrastructure [zitamar.com].
🇳🇦 Namibia (Stable) Namibia’s annual inflation edged up to 5.6% in October, driven by higher transport costs, which could pressure household budgets and fiscal stability [riotimesonline.com]. At the same time, Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote announced a $2.5 billion fuel storage and pipeline project in the country, potentially boosting investment and energy security [rt.com].
🇳🇬 Nigeria (Unstable) A Nigerian court disqualified leading opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar, intensifying political uncertainty ahead of the January 2027 presidential election [Source - Reuters][Source - The Hindu]. The move comes amid reports of violent attacks on rival candidate Peter Obi’s convoy, with police arresting a suspect after thugs struck his vehicle in Calabar ten weeks before the vote [Source - RIOTimes Online]. These developments underscore heightened tension and potential instability in the country’s electoral landscape. [france24.com] [thehindu.com]
🇸🇴 Somalia (Unstable) Somalia’s Supreme Court blocked President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s attempt to extend his term, putting the schedule for the country’s first one‑person, one‑vote elections in years into question [Source - BBC]. The president had earlier declared a “transition period” that effectively gave him an extra year in office, prompting accusations that he ordered the arrest of the chief justice [Source - Japan Times]. [bbc.co.uk] [japantimes.co.jp]
🇿🇦 South Africa (Weak) South Africa’s ruling African National Congress is on track for a historic defeat in the municipal elections, with early counts showing it secured only about a third of the vote and opposition parties gaining control of key councils, raising concerns over future governance stability [Source - France24] [Source - Citizen]. At the same time, business confidence has slipped to its lowest level since 2020 amid rising fuel costs, weak orders and port delays, further straining the economic outlook [thesouthafrican.com]. The loss of AGOA trade preferences, blamed on the ANC’s refusal to meet U.S. demands, adds another layer of economic pressure on the ruling party [Source - PoliticsWeb].
🇸🇩 Sudan (Unstable) Two Egyptian border guards were killed in an armed clash near Sudan’s border, underscoring the volatility of frontier security [azernews.az]. Sudan and Ethiopia have expelled each other’s diplomats and closed consulates amid accusations that Ethiopia is allowing RSF drones to operate from its territory, heightening regional tensions [rt.com] [france24.com] [sabcnews.com].
🇹🇿 Tanzania (Stable) Tanzania’s High Court scheduled a ruling for 6 November on treason charges against opposition leader Tundu Lissu, a decision that comes as U.S. trade benefits for the country are set to lapse on 31 December [riotimesonline.com]. Meanwhile, Russia’s Sistema investment group announced plans to expand its African portfolio with new projects in Tanzania, alongside the Congo, according to the firm’s vice‑president [Source - tass.com].
🇬🇲 The Gambia (Weak) The Gambia is awaiting the International Court of Justice’s ruling on the Rohingya genocide case it filed against Myanmar, with the judgment scheduled for 19 November, a development that could affect the country’s diplomatic standing. [middleeasteye.net]
🇺🇬 Uganda (Weak) Uganda signed a contract on 10 July 2026 to build a new Karuma Bridge over the Nile, funded by a Japanese grant of up to US$33 million, signalling continued investment in critical infrastructure [riotimesonline.com].
🇿🇲 Zambia (Weak) Police seized about 5,000 illegal firearms, a move aimed at curbing small‑arms proliferation and improving public security [diggers.news]. At the same time, analysts warned that a recent drop in corruption complaints does not necessarily reflect a real decline in graft, underscoring ongoing governance challenges [diggers.news]. Meanwhile, civil society groups continued to mobilise for democratic reforms, signalling persistent political activism [daily-mail.co.zm].
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe (Unstable) Invictus Energy is preparing to drill the Musuma‑1 oil and gas exploration well, signalling renewed foreign investment in Zimbabwe’s energy sector [themarketherald.com.au]. Legal troubles continued to affect the political elite, with President Mnangagwa’s daughter‑in‑law fined after pleading guilty to drug offences and a money‑laundering charge dropped, while the late President Mugabe’s son appeared in court on assault charges tied to a luxury‑car smuggling probe [thezimbabwemail.com] [abcnews.go.com]. Meanwhile, cotton processor Cottco announced plans to delist from the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange as it restructures debt and seeks funding to safeguard the 2027 cotton crop, highlighting ongoing strain in the agricultural sector [thezimbabwemail.com].
Carpe tomorrow
Andrew
